The Saudis are in Real Trouble | Edmund Fitton-Brown

PELONI:  FDD’s Edmund Fitton Brown joins Misgav Institute’s Daily Briefs with Laura Cellier to discuss the state of the Iran war, the Houthi war with Saudi Arabia including Iran’s regional strategy, proposals being pushed by recently selected el Sayed as US Senator, potential US disengagement in the Middle East, among other issues.  See Highlights below

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Key Highlights

– Trump has not abandoned military options against Iran but appears to favor economic pressure and the naval blockade over renewed large-scale strikes. Fitton-Brown believes this is a more sustainable strategy that could weaken the regime and prevent it from rebuilding its nuclear program.

– Despite significant military damage, Iran remains capable of destabilizing the region and threatening Israel and the Gulf states. Continued Iranian retaliation has undermined Gulf security and economic confidence, particularly in Dubai and Saudi Arabia.

– Abdul El-Sayed’s proposals to cut aid to Egypt and Jordan and downgrade relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE concern Fitton-Brown, who considers them harmful to American interests. He suggests these priorities appear consistent with an Islamist agenda but cautions that El-Sayed’s actual influence remains to be seen.

– Although Washington has repeatedly expressed interest in shifting its attention away from the Middle East, regional crises continually draw the United States back in. Fitton-Brown expects limited policy changes under Trump but sees the 2028 presidential election as a potential turning point, particularly if isolationist candidates gain influence.

– Saudi Arabia’s decision to break with the UAE weakened the coalition fighting the Houthis, removing its most effective military partner. Iran and the Houthis are exploiting this division to exhaust Saudi Arabia and force it into a settlement favorable to Tehran.

– Fitton-Brown argues that Washington mistakenly treats Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon as separate policy challenges, while Tehran coordinates its operations across all three. He believes the United States needs an integrated regional strategy to counter Iran’s interconnected network of allies and proxies.

– Saudi Arabia’s emerging defensive partnerships with Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt lack the ground-force capabilities previously supplied by the UAE. Fitton-Brown challenges that American leadership of a coordinated regional coalition is essential to strengthening Saudi defenses and countering Iranian influence.

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