By | Dec 6, 2025
After the return of the 20 Israeli hostages who were still alive, and the bodies of 27 deceased hostages whom Hamas had killed in captivity, in exchange for 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 hundred serving life sentences for murdering Israelis, and the ceasefire arranged two months ago between Hamas and Israel continued, albeit shakily, in force, it was time to move to Phase Two of Trump’s plan to bring a permanent end to the Gaza War. But Hamas has made clear that the most important part of Phase Two — the disarmament of the terror group — will not happen.
More on this immovable obstacle can be found here: “‘Dead on Arrival’: Inside the Breakdown of Second Phase of Gaza Ceasefire and Hamas’s Resurgent Control,” by Debbie Weiss, Algemeiner, December 3, 2025:
The second phase of the Trump administration’s Gaza plan has collapsed into “stalemate,” according to Gaza-born analyst Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, derailing plans to disarm Hamas and enabling the terrorist group to reassert control over aid convoys and Gaza’s three main hospitals, which he said have turned into interrogation centers for political opponents.
“Phase Two is not going to proceed,” Alkhatib, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said in a call with journalists on Tuesday.
Under the plan, the first stage included Hamas releasing all the remaining hostages, both living and deceased, who were kidnapped by Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists during their Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. In exchange, Israeli released thousands of Palestinian prisoners and detainees and partially withdrew its military forces in Gaza.
Currently, the Israeli military controls 53 percent of Gaza’s territory, and Hamas has moved to reestablish control over the other 47 percent. However, the vast majority of the Gazan population is located in the Hamas-controlled half, where the Islamist group has been imposing a brutal crackdown.
The second stage of the US plan was supposed to install an interim administrative authority — a so-called “technocratic government” — deploy an International Stabilization Force — a multinational force meant to take over security in Gaza — and begin the demilitarization of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that has ruled the enclave for nearly two decades.
As of now, no “technocrats” have been selected to run Gaza after Hamas is forced to give up its arms and, consequently, its political power.
“The International Stabilization Force is dead on arrival,” Alkhatib said. “The gap between what the force is meant to do versus the expectation of the volunteers is too wide.”
Alkhatib’s comments stood in stark contrast to those of US President Donald Trump, who on Wednesday told reporters at the White House that phase two of his Gaza peace plan was “going to happen pretty soon.”
“It’s going very well. We have peace in the Middle East. People don’t realize it,” Trump said.
“We have peace in the Middle East.” Not in Gaza. Not in Judea and Samaria. Not in Latakia or Sweida in Syria. Not in Yemen. Not in Iraq. Not in Lebanon.
“Phase two is moving along. It’s going to happen pretty soon.”…
No, Phase Two is not “moving along.” Nor will Phase Two “happen pretty soon.” Trump is whistling in the dark. He refuses to recognize that Hamas has said no, a thousand times no, and instead of disarming, is readying itself both with new recruits, and new weapons supplied by Qatar, to fight against any attempt by anyone to disarm it.
Everyone expects that the two fabulously rich Arab oil states, Saudi Araba and the UAE, will be paying for almost all of the reconstruction in Gaza, and these two states, whose monarchs detest and fear the Muslim Brotherhood, do not want the MB’s two main supporters, Qatar and Turkey, to play any role in a postwar Gaza.
The Gaza-born analyst Alkhatib wonders why Qatar should not be asked to contribute billions more to rebuilding Gaza, if it going to have such influence, via its support for Hamas, over the Strip.
Egypt and Jordan are both too strapped for cash and other resources to train security personnel to replace Hamas in Gaza. Other states, including Pakistan and Indonesia, are not willing to send troops into the Gaza morass, where their troops before raising up recruits and training a new security force, would have to engage in firefights with Hamas combatants who will resist having their weapons seized.
Hamas has now become akin to mafia extortionists, protecting the trucks that bring into Gaza commercial goods from other armed groups that might seize them. In exchange for such protection, Hamas demands a cut of the goods’ value.
Hamas also has reasserted its power to tax the aid shipments that have resumed, now that the Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has closed. The terror group exacts a tax on each shipment, paid for by the Western humanitarian groups that are now, because of this tax, helping finance Hamas.
The Gaza militias, meanwhile, many of them based on large families, or clans, are determined to resist Hamas, and not only Hamas, but also any presence of military forces from the three countries — Qatar, Turkey, and Iran — that support Hamas. These militias now have thousands of members, and extend from Rafah in the south to Gaza City in the north. They are well-armed, with some of their weapons believed to have come from Israel, which seized them from Hamas arsenals.
If Trump is determined to force Hamas to disarm, he could send American arms and money to the clan-based militias, to help them in their battles throughout Gaza with Hamas. Or he could declare that “because Hamas refuses to disarm, I have told the Israelis that they should no longer feel bound by the ceasefire that was attained in Phase One, and should go after Hamas on both sides of the Yellow Line.” Or he might even have added that “along with the clan-based militias that have been fighting Hamas so bravely, and the IDF forces that are now relieved of having to observe a ceasefire, I will be sending in American airplanes and drones to help reduce Hamas’ forces on the ground to smithereens. I promised I would bring peace to Gaza, and the possibility of prosperity to the Strip, and that’s exactly what I will do.”
The final paragraph above has the only possible solution to this “ceasefire” – Trump must allow the IDF to go in and pursue Hamas with full force; then, as suggested, relieve the IDF by sending in American planes and drones to finish the job. Does anyone think this will happen?