The US-engineered Gaza Ceasefire? Beware of Middle East Reality!

Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger | “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative” | November 26, 2025

*Hamas compliance? Hamas’ compliance with the Gaza Ceasefire, in adherence to President Trump’s 20 points, would require Hamas to abandon its core vision/ideology, forfeit its military and political powerbase; thus, desisting from being Hamas. But, Hamas’ compliance with the Gaza Ceasefire, in adherence to its own core vision and ideology, which transcends financial considerations, is a déjà vu, as demonstrated by all previous Gaza ceasefires.

*Gaza ceasefire – déjà vu. The current Gaza ceasefire is the 6^th ceasefire concluded with Hamas since the 2007 Hamas’ takeover of the Gaza Strip (2008, 2012, 2014, 2019 and 2021). No ceasefire has induced Hamas – which is a branch ofthe Muslim Brotherhood – to embrace peaceful coexistence; neither to adopt good faith negotiation, nor to abandon its Muslim Brotherhood ideology/vision of toppling all national Muslim regimes (e.g., Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Morocco). Furthermore, they have not relinquished their goal of establishing a universal Muslim society with Islam as the only “divinely-ordained legitimate” religion, bringing the “infidel” West to submission, and eradicating the “illegitimate” vanguard of the USA in the Middle East – the Jewish State.

*Hamas negotiation? All previous Gaza ceasefires documented that Hamas’ perception of negotiation and ceasefire is not driven by Western concepts/values, but by a fanatical, apocalyptic vision.  They leverage the negotiation process as a step to avoid obliteration, stall for time to restore terror capabilities, and then launch another terror offensive in their determined pursuit of a fanatical vision (irrespective of the cost). In contrast, the US perception of negotiation and ceasefire is driven by a vision of conflict resolution and dramatically enhanced standard of living, aimed at reconciliation and eventual peaceful coexistence. Western negotiation is perceived by Hamas as weakness.

*Hamas’ rehabilitation? A prerequisite forHamas’ rehabilitation – in addition to the obliteration of its military and political infrastructures – are sweeping structural and cultural changes, such as the uprooting of anti-Western and anti-Jewish hate education, hateful Friday sermons and hate-filled media, which have acted (since the 1993 establishment of the Palestinian Authority) as the most effective production line of Palestinian/Islamic terrorists.  

*Securing a boon, rather than a bane. The uprooting of Hamas’ educational, terroristic and political infrastructures would result in a boon, bolstering the US’ posture of deterrence, which would reduce anti-Western Islamic terrorism, minimize regional instability, and therefore, constrain the maneuverability of China and Russia. On the other hand, the survival of Hamas would afflict the US with a bane, by adrenalizing the veins of the epicenter of anti-US regional and global Islamic terrorism, destabilizing every pro-US Arab regime, undermining the safety of Middle Eastern oil exportation (which impacts the price at the pump), and threatening the shipping lanes between Asia and Europe.

*The anti-US threat of the Ayatollah regime transcends Gaza! the Ayatollah regime is rapidly restoring and upgrading its conventional, ballistic and nuclear capabilities, leveraging the eagerness of China, Russia and North Korea to demonstrate the potency of their military systems and underground fortification capabilities, irrespective of their failure in June 2025. Furthermore, the Ayatollah regime – which played a lead role in the preparation for the October 2023 terror offensive – has intensified its involvement in the terror platform of the Sinai Peninsula (which is contiguous to Gaza!), and the attempts to topple Jordan’s pro-US Hashemite regime.  The Ayatollah’s success would trigger a volcanic ripple effect regionally (the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Israel) and globally. Iran’s Ayatollah regime is the leading patron of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other terrorists in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Latin America and on US soil. Moreover, the Ayatollah regime is the chief epicenter of global anti-US Islamic terrorism, drug trafficking (in collaboration with Latin American drug cartels and anti-US governments), money laundering and the proliferation of advanced military systems. While the Ayatollah regime is the head of a venomous octopus, Gaza is only one of its global tentacles, including the US soil itself, as stated by the FBI, the Homeland Security Department and the Director of Intelligence.

*Iran and the US goal of ending wars! The US goal of minimizing, preventing and ending wars and terrorism requires an experience-based, rather than speculation-based, policy making. It mandates the uprooting of the chief epicenter of regional and global wars and terrorism: the Ayatollah regime, which aims to bring “The Great American Satan” to submission. Refraining from regime-change in Iran (which experienced regime-change in 1953 and 1978) – while adhering to the 47-year-old failed policy of negotiation and (reversible and bypassable) economic sanctions – would pave the road to the first ever apocalyptic nuclear power, which would be a global catastrophe, dwarfing the cost of regime-change.

*Would a Palestinian state advance or undermine US interests? US policy on the Palestinian issue should not be driven by honest brokerage, pro-Palestinian or anti-Palestinian sentiments. It should be driven by US interests, based on the reality of march-of-facts (that tends to be frustrating), not on alternate reality of conventional wisdom (that tends to be convenient).

While Western policy makers have embraced the proposed Palestinian state, relying on moderate Palestinian talk and speculative, subjective future scenarios (e.g., a reformed and peaceful Palestinian government), Arab leaders rely on objective, well-documented Palestinian past track record. They are aware that in the Middle East: “on words one does not pay custom.”

Arabs are aware of the Palestinian rogue intra-Arab track record,which is replete with subversion, terrorism and treachery. Therefore, they have showered Palestinians with embracing talk, but indifferent-to-negative walk. Since 1948, they have refrained from tangible steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state, which would add fuel, not water, to the Middle East fire, yielding a major bonanza to Iran’s Ayatollah regime, the Muslim Brotherhood, China and Russia, but dealing a major setback to regional stability, all pro-US Arab regimes and the US’ own interests.

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