Peloni: As Trump secures the beginning of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, these efforts promote the interests of both an intrinsic Israeli ally, Azerbaijan, and a worrisome adversary, Turkey, in the same moment.
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https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/the-india-link-of-syrias-druze-community-and-the-making-of-another-proxy-war-9040041
Mike Doran seems to think Erdogan is a credible partner against Iran, first in Syria, now here.
@Sebastien
Mike Doran’s world view is that Israel and Turkey are the two nations in the region which can deploy their military beyond their own borders, and as they are both strong US allies, it falls to the US to overcome the fact that these two powerful nations have antagonistic outlooks towards each other.
Notably, Doran maintains that the power in Turkey is not in the control of the Jihadist Erdogan, but in the hands of the state security services which are nationalistic and dedicated towards stability rather than confrontation with Israel.
Relating to Iran, Turkey, as a Sunni nation, is a direct competitor of the Mullahs, and will not act to empower Iran, but it will coordinate/cooperate with Iran towards the ultimate ends which serve Turkey’s interests.
Importantly, controlling Syria is a major Turkish interest, and again, here is where the rubber hits the road, ie the US needs to moderate between these two great powers. Importantly, Trump has come down on the side of recognizing and maximizing Jolani as a credible nationalist leader in Syria, and has helped bridge a connection with MBS and Jolani, which stabilizes Jolani in a way which challenges Turkey’s control over Jolani. The attack on Jolani in support of the Druze provided a serious challenge to Trump’s efforts to stabilize Syria under the influence of a Saudi-Turkish competition, even as it addressed the very real elephant in the room of Jolani, his regime and his allies all being Jihadists, both in nature and in practice in just the few months they have been in power.
Related to all of this, is the fact that earlier yesterday, India announced its full support for the Jolani govt as well, providing this Jihadist in a suit the combined geopolitical support of Saudi, Turkish, American, and India recognition, which doesn’t leave a great deal of room for Israel to act, even to the limited degree of action which it could afford to extend in Syria.
In any event, getting back to the question of Turkey as a credible partner, it requires us to grasp if the real power in Turkey is wielded by Erdogan, or the state security services. Both are intent on a more powerful Turkey, but the former is angled towards confrontation with Israel, while the latter is inclined to work with rather than against Israel.
@ Peloni I see the Druze have been dropped from the headlines. No Druze, No News.