Peloni: In an important article, “Trump’s UN victory is a path to a stalemate in Gaza”, Jonathan S. Tobin challenges that rather than peace bein the ultimate conclusion of Trump’s efforts, it is far more likely that it will result in a stalemate pending the next attack by Hamas at some time in the future. Tobin explains that Pres. Trump secured U.N. Security Council approval for his 20-point Gaza plan, including a ceasefire, an International Stabilization Force, and a “Board of Peace” to govern Gaza. Tobin argues that despite the fanfare, the plan is unlikely to deliver real peace: Hamas is unlikely to disarm or relinquish control over parts of Gaza, and outside countries are unlikely to commit the blood and treasure required to remove it.
Arguing against what he calls “magical thinking” – the idea that technocratic governance or reconstruction alone will force Hamas out, Tobin suggests that a de facto permanent division may emerge instead, with a “yellow line” separating a rebuilt, U.S.-backed Gaza from a Hamas-controlled enclave. While this could reduce Hamas’s ability to launch major attacks, the war aim of Hamas being defeated would go unfulfilled. Tobin also expresses skepticism about the plan offering a credible path to statehood for Palestinians and describes the “credible pathway” language as being more aspirational than binding. Importantly, he also doubts that Arab states will actually risk stability or make sacrifices for Gaza’s reconstruction, ultimately arguing that without Hamas’s removal the plan would simply result in a new stalemate rather than achieving lasting peace.
The consequence of this is that rather than obtaining peace on the Gaza border, the enormous expense of Israeli blood and treasure will instead cement the defeat in Gaza, not of Hamas, but of the war aim of defeating and demilitarizing Hamas.
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Peloni,
Does the Trump-endorsed UN action effectively shrink Hamas’s border to the “Yellow Line”? That’s an interesting compromise — demanding that Israel only strangle Hamas halfway into the neck?
@Michael
Well, the Trump endorsed UN resolution states Hamas is supposed to be eliminated, or disarmed, following which the previously controlled Hamas area would begin to be rebuilt and it would begin to be governed by the newly assigned govt. As that takes place without incidents of resistance or violence, Israel will withdraw from the Yellow line as the new govt’s authority expands.
Since Hamas is not being eliminated, a new plan is emerging in which instead of the area being rebuilt for the Gazans being on the Hamas controlled side of the yellow line, rebuilding will begin on the Israeli side of the Yellow line. So Hamas will be inside the Yellow line, the Gazans will be outside the Yellow line, and presumably, Israel will be leaving as the reconstruction takes place and the new governing body takes control.
This is still being proposed, but I suspect that this is what is going to proceed, though perhaps with some variations. It prevents the need to deal with Hamas, it denies Israel the control of the land it won, and it will give Trump a sign of victory, no matter how contrived, so he can claim he brought peace to the area. I hope this is not what takes shape, but at this time, this is what is expected will happen.
@dreuveni, I have learned that Hamas is supplying themselves and being supplied with weapons located in other countries, such as European countries. Hamas is definitely planning on staying in power, and they are determined to get weapons.
I find it difficult to believe that any Muslim group that is in the ISF will be willing to shoot and kill Hamas, thus I imagine they might be used to protect Hamas at the expense of Israelis.
I do not believe at this point that Trump can consider these problems as dealing a death blow to the peace plan. I don’t think he wants to consider how weak and problematic his proposal is. It got accepted at the UNSC, and that appears to be enough for him.
Overall, I agree with others that peace is not likely to emerge from this plan, only more war and more death and destruction. It troubles me that Israel is being put in a position in which, because Israel MUST be realistic, she can be seen as uncooperative. I pray that Bibi will be able to speak with Trump and get through to him on whatever is possible. I never thought of Trump as unreasonable before, but maybe he has become so, as a result of creating peace plans that his ego is too involved in to assess logically and objectively, as would be necessary for success.
If the resupplying of Hamas through tunnels from Egypt into the strip is finally cut off and they no longer get the needed bits and pieces to build rockets and other missiles, they may simply give up up because they have no weapons to fire at Israel. However, that depends on Egypt really, really, cutting off the supply route and not appearing to look the other way. By the same approach, there should be no supply route from the sea either, so no to all those who support the state of Palestine and intend to reach Gaza by the sea.
What surprises me is that Tobin neglects to mention another item; namely the mention in the Saudi-French proposal, subsequently adopted by the UN and supported by the Caliph in the White House; namely, the right of return for Arabs to the land of Israel. Should that happen, there will be no ‘two-state’ settlement, but rather a one-state concoction. For more information, I refer you to the Memori site and provide the link here:
https://www.memri.org/reports/trumps-gaza-plan-adopts-saudi-french-proposal-recognizing-right-return-israel-1948
With friends like the Caliph in the White House, Israel does not need enemies.
“…rather than peace being the ultimate conclusion of Trump’s efforts, it is far more likely that it will result in a stalemate pending the next attack by Hamas at some time in the future…”
Is this so difficult to understand???