Peloni: In all that is taking form around the region, the driving focus for the US is its pivot to deal with China. There are many aspects of the current conflict which make little sense in isolation, but taken together as a whole, much of the mystery is revealed to be America’s positioning for its future interest in containing China at all costs. And those costs, which are both real and substantive to those who are suffering them, are focused in large part on the minorities and the subjugated masses in the Middle East. As the new Middle East continues to evolve, these minorities will come to play an important part in shaping their own future if they are not swallowed whole as is the intentions of the likes of the colonialist Turkey and its competitors.
Avi Abelow | Meta | Feb 26,2026
Image via AI
As headlines obsess over a potential U.S. strike on the Islamic regime in Iran and debate President Trump’s Gaza “peace council,” it’s time to step back.
Because what’s unfolding is far bigger than Israel. Far bigger than Gaza. Even bigger than Iran.
This is about the restructuring of the Middle East in the context of a global power struggle, primarily between the United States and China, and the vacuum forming across collapsing jihadist regimes.
Undecided readers deserve clarity, not slogans.
1. Iran: This Is Not About Saving Israel — It’s About China
Let’s begin with Iran.
If Washington moves decisively against the Islamic regime, it will not be primarily to “help Israel” or to liberate the Iranian people from tyranny, as noble as those outcomes would be.
It will be about China.
Iran is a central node in Beijing’s energy security strategy and in its Belt and Road architecture. The 25-year Iran–China cooperation agreement, oil flows to Asia, and maritime leverage in the Strait of Hormuz are not symbolic, they are strategic.
A weakened or collapsed Islamic regime of Iran fractures China’s westward energy corridor and undermines its long-term economic positioning against the United States. Venezuela was one part of the China global strategic puzzle, and Iran is now the next one.
Yes, Israel benefits from a weakened Islamic regime of Iran. The Iranian people would finally benefit with freedom from the oppressive Islamic regime. But the true driving engine of President Trump and his team in Washington is geopolitical containment of China.
That is the chessboard.
2. Iranian Kurds Preparing for Independence: A Tectonic Shift
Recent reports indicate Iranian Kurdish factions are uniting to prepare for a post-Islamic regime reality, potentially laying groundwork for an independent Kurdish entity inside Iran.
This is seismic.
An independent Kurdistan inside Iran would be a historic blow to the Sunni Islamist axis in the Middle East, especially Turkey, which has systematically opposed Kurdish sovereignty anywhere in the region.
More broadly, Kurdish independence represents something even deeper: the unraveling of the artificial Sykes-Picot imperial framework imposed over diverse ethnic and religious minorities placed under the Sunni/Shia jihadist conquest of 1,400 years.
Kurds, Christians, Druze, Yazidis, these populations have repeatedly suffered under both Sunni and Shia domination.
The only sustainable path to ending cycles of persecution is not endless “unity governments” under Islamist dominance.
It is autonomy and sovereignty for ethnic/religious minorities.
When minorities govern themselves, jihadist supremacism loses territorial leverage.
That is why Kurdish unity matters.
The West must stop ignoring the reality of the Middle East and stop ignoring the evil of Islamic regimes that persecute minorities in artificially carved up nation states of the Middle East.
3. Syria: American Withdrawal and the Vacuum of Jihad
The United States has largely withdrawn its forces from Syria.
Why? Total terror and chaos in Syria.
Not only are the minorities getting killed, but now Sunni Muslim ISIS factions are fighting other Sunni Muslim ISIS factions.
No one is safe in Syria.
Let the Muslim jihadis kill each other without Western involvement, but we must take steps to protect the persecuted Christian’s, Druze, Kurd and Alawites minorities from their evil.
History has shown that international guarantees do not protect Middle Eastern minorities. Power does.
The Druze in southern Syria, Christian villages, and other minority enclaves survive only when a credible military force deters jihadist aggression.
The only regional actor with both capability and demonstrated willingness to protect minorities, is the Jewish state of Israel.
There is only one way forward, Israel must liberate as much of Southern Syria as possible to protect Northern Israel from these Sunni jihadist forces and to shield vulnerable minority populations from slaughter.
That is not expansionism. That is survival strategy in a collapsing neighborhood of jihadi evil.
4. Lebanon: Hezbollah Will Not Disarm Itself
The United States has ordered personnel out of Lebanon.
The Lebanese state/army has neither the capacity nor the will to disarm the Shia Muslim Hezbollah terror militia, because Shiite Muslims are heavily present in the government and army.
Hezbollah is not a rogue militia. It is a Shia jihadi Iranian forward operating base on Israel’s northern border, slowly taking over Lebanon via political power.
Diplomatic illusions will not dismantle that demographic makeup and internal threat to Lebanon.
Israel only has one choice, to eventually push Hezbollah northward and liberate as much of Southern Lebanon as possible, to natural defensible borders along one of the rivers that cut through Southern Lebanon.
And here again, minority communities in southern Lebanon, Christians and others, are caught between jihadist actors and regional instability.
Security vacuums do not remain empty. They are filled by the strongest force available.
And the only force of good that protects the lives of the presented minorities, is the Jewish state of Israel.
5. Gaza: Illusions of Reform
As for Gaza “peace plans”, let’s be realistic.
Training new “police” forces without dismantling Hamas’ ideological infrastructure and 500 kilometers of tunnel networks does not produce peace. It rebrands militancy.
It is one jihadi Muslim in the Hamas organization, handing over his gun to another jihadi Muslim in the name of a U.S. supported Gaza police force.
In the Middle East, defeat is not rhetorical. It is territorial and psychological.
If Hamas retains territorial presence and demographic dominance, it will declare victory, even amid rubble, and regroup for the next round.
Victory in Gaza is only achieved in one way: Israel fully liberates every inch of Gaza, implements Trump’s emigration plan to allow Gazans a future of jihadi Islam elsewhere, and rebuilds all 21 destroyed Jewish communities, plus many more.
That’s the only answer to the atrocities of Oct. 7th, supported by the Iran-led Shia evil and its Sunni jihadi backers in Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, etc.
No illusions. No half-measures. Full sovereignty, resettlement, rebuilding. Period.
On top of that, Israel is the only actor with both the intelligence penetration and operational capability to fully dismantle Hamas’ military infrastructure. No other international force is capable.
Biblical Borders and Strategic Reality
When commentators like Ticker Carlson mock discussions about Israel’s biblical borders, they frame it as theology detached from modern politics.
But the emerging strategic reality is this:
Across Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and potentially post-regime Iran, centralized Islamist control is fracturing.
Minorities are being persecuted and ethnically cleansed.
Jihadist factions continue internal warfare.
Israel is the the stabilizing force in the region that protects minorities and secures corridors against jihadist aggression.
It is inevitable that the geographic map will change, not because of mysticism, or God’s Biblical promise to the Jewish people, but because of necessity.
For 1,400 years, much of the ethnically diverse Middle East has been overpowered and conquered by Islamic imperial forces that originated in Arabia. Minorities have been ethnically cleansed and pushed out of their native countries, with only a fraction remaining, continously persecuted under Muslim sharia law.
Today, the only state in the region that constitutionally protects Muslims, Christians, Druze, Baha’i, and others, with equal civil rights, is the Jewish state.
That fact matters.
Undecided readers may disagree with conclusions. But the trajectory is visible:
• Iran destabilized in the context of U.S.–China competition.
• Kurdish movements gaining momentum.
• Syria fragmenting.
• Lebanon unable to restrain Hezbollah.
• Gaza unreformed at its ideological core.
This is not random turbulence.
It is the end of the jihadi Islamic regional order and the birth pains of a more stable and safe regional order, with the Jewish state of Israel as the protector regional power.
And in that transition, Israel is not merely defending itself. It is emerging as the only coherent stabilizing power in a region still trapped in jihadist fragmentation.
History may yet record that what some mocked as “biblical ambition” was, in fact, geopolitical inevitability shaped by the collapse of surrounding regimes.
We are not witnessing isolated crises.
We are watching a map being redrawn.
A map God delineated for humanity in the Bible thousands of years ago.
Strengthen your faith in God.
Hold your heads up high standing up for these truths.
Am Yisrael Chai!!!
Sykes Picot was an unashamed imperial “carve up” that imposed artificial states but precisely because the borders were drawn as and by bargaining chips the results did NOT gell as NATION-states.
The minoritiy “provinces” reflect underlying geography that enabled the minorites to survive in natural niches. The classic example is Judea – the Southern kingdom. It is off the main Via Maris transit road of the Levant and tucked up in its Jerusalem and Hebron hills with the Dead Sea to the East and the desert to the South.
Geography will also reveal why the Druze Mountain or the Yazidis equally in a mountain area, survived and no doubt the Kurds as well. Encouraging a Kurd Republic will be a nice revenge on Turkey dumping the Ataturk secularisation for neo-Ottomanism aand on Iran’s ayatollahs for the same reasons.
The Arabs and others have been over egging the anti-Imperial arguments for too long. They have been independent and the Franco-British gone since 1956 Sinai/Suez and 1962 Algerian independence. The successors have failed to settle down internally excepting the ethnically and geographically cohesive: Saudi, Egypt, Turkey, Iran and Israel. That points to something deeper and if Western colonialism is wrong so is Moslem colonialism whether Arab, Turk, Iranian or the Pakistani “spatchcock” that could not abide being India but can not containitself in civil government.
As the petro dollars fade the century will be very interesting.
An excellent summary of the situation in the middle east and the inevitable outcome. This article explains why Israel must develop the means to defend itself. As shown by previous war situations, Israel cannot depend on any partner to provide weaponry when it is needed. There are many examples: UK when Israel could have managed with side arms. France, leading up to the 6 day war. US during the Yom Kippur war, and any of the organizations such as the UN or the EU or any other countries capable and willing to assist Israel in time of war. Then there are other countries like Russia, China or South Africa who prefer to choose sides.