Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative” | September 12, 2025
*Iran was generally neutral-to-friendly toward the US until the 1951 rise to power of the pro-Soviet Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, who demoted the pro-US Shah to a marginalized ceremonial monarch. During the period 1953-1978, following the dismissal of Mosaddegh, and the restoration of the executive power of the Shah, Iran functioned as one of the US’ most trusted Cold War allies, a Major Non-NATO Ally of the US and “the American Policeman of the Gulf.” This strategic honeymoon was terminated by the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which transformed Iran into a clear and present threat to the US, the chief global epicenter of civil wars, anti-US terrorism, drug trafficking and money laundering in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, with a multitude of terror sleeper cells on US soil.
*In the long run, US policy in the Middle East is challenged by alliances with Middle Eastern Arab/Muslim countries, which are as jerkily spiral as has been the volcanic nature of the Middle East since the 7th century:
<Local/tribal loyalty transcends national loyalty;
<Violent intolerance toward one another (and toward the “infidel”), religiously, ideologically, culturally, geographically and economically. Thus, since 1948, over 10 million Muslims were killed in intra-Muslim wars, compared to 100,000 Muslims killed in wars against Israel);
<No long-term peaceful coexistence among Muslims/Arabs, domestically and regionally;
<Regimes rise to power via the bullet, not ballot;
<Subversion and terrorism feature in the intra-Muslim and intra-Arab sphere;
<Violent instability and unpredictability;
<Centrality of religion and ideology in shaping visions and policies;
<Shifty alliances, policies and accords are derivative of tenuous minority and non-democratic regimes;
<Alliances are regime-dependent.
The following are a few examples of the erratic twirl of Middle Eastern alliances, in addition to the aforementioned zig-zagging Iranian chronicle:
*Since Libya’s 1951 independence, King Idris was pro-US, allowing the 1954 establishment of the Wheelus Air Force base, which wasthe largest US Air Force base outside the USA, with 4,600-6,000 US soldiers. Wheelus played a critical role during the Cold War, providing the US refueling, training, and a springboard operational base toward Southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. In 1969, Libya’s allegiance was flipped overnight, when the pro-Soviet Col. Gaddafi toppled King Idris, expelled US forces, relied on Soviet weaponry, and actively supported anti-US and anti-European Islamic terrorism. However, from the early 2000s, Gaddafi distanced himself from Islamic terrorism, cooperating with the US and Europe in the battle against al-Qaeda and other Jihadist movements in Central and North Africa. In 2003,Gaddafi surrendered to the US the infrastructure of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical and biological). In 2011, Gaddafi’s rule was terminated by a US-initiated NATO-led military offensive, accusing Gaddafi of severe violations of human rights (in his battle against Islamic terrorists….). Gaddafi was lynched by Islamic terrorists, transforming Libya into a major platform of civil wars and anti-US and anti-Western Islamic terrorism.
*In 1952, Egypt’s King Farouk was toppled by a military coup, transforming Egypt into a The leading Soviet strategic ally in the Middle East – notwithstanding the US’ economic and diplomatic overtures – aiming to topple all pro-US oil-producing Arab regimes, at a time when the US was heavily dependent upon Persian Gulf oil. Following the 1973 Arab-Israel War, which highlighted the effectiveness of US-Israel strategic cooperation, President Sadatshifted away from the USSR toward the USA. In 2011, the pro-US President Mubarak was toppled by the anti-US Muslim Brotherhood, which won the 2012 election, only to be toppled in 2013 by the pro-US General Sisi.
*In 1958, Iraq’s pro-US Hashemite King Faisal was toppled by the pro-Soviet General Abd al-Karim Qasim. During 1958-1979, there were a series of military coups, led by pro-Soviet generals. The pro-Soviet Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq during 1979-2003 until the Second Gulf War, aligning himself with the US against Iran during the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war, but then turned against the US through the August 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Since the US-orchestrated 2003 the rise to power of Iraq’s Shiites, Iran’s Ayatollah regime has become a dominant power in Iraq.
*The 2011-12 Yemen revolution elevated the pro-US Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi to power until he was toppled in 2014-15 by the anti-US and pro-Ayatollah Houthis.
*Qatar is a Major Non-NATO Ally of the US, the site of the al-Udeid US Air Base, the largest US military base in the Middle East, a major trade partner with – and a leading investor in – the US. At the same time, Qatar is a close ally of the anti-US Iran’s Ayatollah regime, the leading financial supporter of Hamas, Hezbollah and the anti-US Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terror organization and the “parent company” of Hamas. Qatar is the leading donor to US universities, promoting teachings, which are consistent with its Muslim Brotherhood-oriented ideology. Notwithstanding their diplomatic talk, and contrary to the US foreign policy establishment, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are well aware of Qatar’s ideology and strategy, viewing Doha as a clear and present threat to regional stability (hence, the 2017-2021 Saudi-led blockade of Qatar).
*A core challenge for US Middle East policy: the long-term fate of US alliances with Muslim/Arab regimes is fluid, depending on the ideology of despotic and tenuous regimes, as well as on the intrinsically internal and regional instability and pressures.
*Unlike Arab allies of the US, Israel has been an unconditional, reliable, democratic, pro-active and low/no-risk ally, serving as a 5-CIA-like source of intelligence, and the leading battle-tested-laboratory for the US defense and aerospace industries and Armed Forces. Israel is the Show Room for inducing US defense exports, a major innovation center for the US high tech giants, and the largest US aircraft carrier, which does not require US soldiers on board, yielding a mega-billion-dollar Return-on-Investment for the US.
*Unlike the European allies of the US, whose strategic cooperation depends on the Left/Right ideology of the government and domestic public opinion, a vast majority of Israel’s constituency and political establishment has been unconditionally pro-US, irrespective of Left/Right governments in Jerusalem and independent of a DEM or GOP presidency in Washington.
Nice summary!