Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative” | May 30, 2025
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*Since the 1979 US-assisted toppling of the pro-US Shah, the Ayatollah regime has been driven by a globally-domineering Mega Shia vision, which requires Mega capabilities (conventional, ballistic and nuclear), in order to overcome the Mega obstacle – “the Great American Satan.”
*Israel, “the small Satan,” has been targeted by the Ayatollah regime, due to its role as the most effective force-multiplier and beachhead of the US in the Middle East, which is the global epicenter of anti-US Islamic terrorism, the site of 48% of global oil reserves, a critical junction between Europe-Asia-Africa and a vital Asia-Europe trade route.
*Is the US threatened by the Ayatollah regime? The DC-based International Coalition Against Illicit Economies states: “Iran’s ties to Latin America [the US’ Soft Underbelly] go back to 1979…. Iran’s presence in Latin America is inextricably tied to terrorism and criminal activities…. The Iran-Hezbollah network has been tied to violent subversion, terrorism, murder, corruption, drug trafficking and multiple other illicit economic activities across the hemisphere, presenting a clear strategic threat to the USA….
“Hezbollah has had training bases and cells in Mexico, has assisted the Mexican cartels [e.g., the Los Zetas, Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels] in manufacturing bombs and explosives, and has operated drug laboratories in Mexico…. Mexico could be leveraged as a platform for “sleeper cells” to launch attacks in the USA….
“Iran and Hezbollah have access to, and in some cases control of, key port facilities and free trade zones, [such as] Panama’s Colón Free Trade Zone, Venezuela’s Isla Margarita, Colombia’s Maicao Special Customs Zone, Belize’s Corozal Free Zone, and Brazil’s port of Santos…. According to the United States Southern Command, Islamist terrorist groups raise $300-$500 million each year in duty-free zones such as Maicao, Columbia….
“The U.S. Department of Justice has prosecuted numerous cases involving Iran-back proxies and Iranian-based criminal networks including crimes related to narcoterrorism…. Ecuador allowed Iran to use an Ecuador state bank to hide millions of dollars in sanctions-busting purchases for its Weapons of Mass Destruction program…. Brazil is increasingly having to deal with Iran-related drug trafficking and weaponry smuggling….
“Iran considers Venezuela…as a safe haven to possibly mine uranium and preposition military assets in the region [bolstering Venezuela’s potential invasion of oil-rich Guyana]…. Iran and Venezuela jointly evade US and EU sanctions, move tons of illicit gold and black cocaine to market, and provide safe haven for Iranian and Hezbollah operatives…. Hezbollah is involved in the cocaine trade, counterfeiting, software and music piracy, document forging, [mega-billion-dollar] money laundering, and the trafficking of weapons and contraband…. Other Iran-back proxies have a strong presence in the Tri-Border Areas (Argentina-Paraguay-Brazil, Chile-Bolivia-Peru) and other areas of South and Central America, Canada, and within the United States….
“Globally, Iran [in deepening partnerships with China and Russia] continues to fund, train, support, and guide its crime-terror proxies [and Latin American and Canadian gangs] to harm American national security and kill American citizens….”
*The 2025 Threat Assessments issued by the US Department of Homeland Security, the FBI and the Director of National Intelligence define Iran – in collusion with Russia and China – as a clear and present threat on US soil.
*Since 1979, Iran has been transformed from “The American Policeman of the Persian Gulf” to the chief focal point of anti-US global Islamic terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering and the proliferation of advanced military systems. From a 1979 second rate threat to global stability, the Ayatollah regime has surged to a 2025 top rate threat to the US homeland and national security.
*Unlike the threat posed by the nuclear North Korea and Pakistan, a nuclear Ayatollah regime would introduce the first ever apocalyptic nuclear power, driven by a Shia Twelver (Mahdist) vision, which promotes deliberate-martyrdom and mandates the toppling of all pro-US Sunni Arab regimes and bringing the Great American Satan to submission in a world, which is dominated by Shia Islam, the supposedly only legitimate and divinely-ordained religion. This vision is echoed by the 1979 Ayatollah Constitution and Iran’s school curriculum (the most authentic reflection of the Ayatollah worldview), mosque sermons and official media.
*In his January 2025 confirmation hearing, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio sounded the alarm: “[Iranian proxies] have long planned contingencies for attacks [on US soil]…. Their ability to penetrate U.S. soil also positions them as a risk to American national security….”
*47 years of negotiation with – and economic sanctions on – Iran have documented the failure of Money Talks, since the Ayatollah regime adheres to Ideology Walks. Hundreds of billions of dollars, showered upon Iran, have not induced moderation. Similarly, maximum pressure economic sanctions (which are reversible) have not enticed Iran to accept peaceful coexistence with their Sunni neighbors, neither to become good-faith negotiators, nor to desist from terror and drug trafficking, nor to abandon the Shia vision. The entire Iranian system is religion-based, dominated by the top clerics, most notably the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
*US negotiators are impressed with the eloquence and supposed pragmatism of Iranian negotiators, overlooking Iran’s faith-based negotiation tactics, such as “taqiyyah” (religious dissimulation, double-dealing) and “khod’eh” (strategic deceit), which allow “believers” – in the face of insurmountable odds – to misrepresent reality with their mouths, but not with their hearts.
*Western policy makers focus on Iran’s pursuit of nuclear power, but Iran’s conventional and ballistic power is a chief catalyst of global wars and terrorism. The existence of – and negotiation with – such a catalyst and the goal of preventing and ending wars constitute an oxymoron. 47 years of self-destructive negotiation and reversible economic sanctions underscore regime change as a prerequisite for preventing, minimizing and ending wars. Persisting in negotiation and economic sanctions would yield the first ever apocalyptic nuclear power.
*Regime change is welcomed by most Iranians, who expected US intervention in the 2009 and 2022 attempted revolutions, but were left hanging high and dry. Most Middle East Moslems (Sunni!) have the Ayatollah machete at their throats, and would welcome regime change. The precedents of Iraq and Afghanistan do not apply to Iran, historically, ethnically, culturally and educationally, as most Iranians are united in their eagerness for regime change, offering a relatively stable path for regime change. While regime-change may entail significant cost, it would be dwarfed by the cost of facing an apocalyptically nuclear Iran.
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