Who is the hegemon (top dog) in the Middle East?

by Steve Kramer

Israel’s image and power has increased dramatically in the last several years. It was one of the most powerful states in the Middle East before October 7, 2023, but since the ceasefire with Hamas came into effect and the return of all hostages was finally accomplished in 2026, Israel’s shadow looms large over the region. Of course, one of the most important factors in Israel’s arsenal is its very close alliance with the US, despite no formal treaty.

Two countries vie with Israel for the designation of top dog around the Middle East. One is Egypt with a population of about 117 million (12X Israeli population). The other is Turkey, a member of NATO. Its population is also large, about 88 million. At present, Egypt is amassing a large proportion of its army of 310,000 close to its border with Israel. Does Egypt’s ruler, Abdel el-Sisi, fear an attack by Israel or does he have plans to destroy Israel? Perhaps he dreams of Egypt regaining its status of thousands of years ago, when Egypt was the most powerful country in the region.

Turkey’s army is even larger than Egypt’s, about 355,000. Unfortunately, its strongman Recep Erdogan shares el-Sisi’s hatred of Israel, a “foreign” entity which must be excised from the Middle East. Complicating things is President Trump’s close relationship with Erdogan, whom he appreciates as a fellow “strong man”. At this time, Turkey has not been granted the right to purchase American F-35 fighter jets, which are among Israel’s most potent weapons. Erdogan covets this supreme fighting/intelligence jet for Turkey’s arsenal, with the hope to recreate itself as the hegemon of Middle East, which the Ottoman Empire once was from 1517-1917.

Three other Muslim countries vie to lead the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Qatar. All three have vast amounts of money to spend on this objective from their fossil fuel sales. In my opinion, Qatar is the most dangerous despite its tiny native population of 330,000, barely 12% of the country’s total population which includes workers from many Asian countries. It uses its vast financial resources to buy or pay off everybody and everything, from Western politicians, to universities, to international sport teams, even to the associations which govern them.

Just a few years ago Israel allowed Qatar to inject $15 million in cash every month into Gaza, supposedly to buy quiet. What did the Israeli government think that money would pay for? Housing for Gazans? No, it was used to equip terrorists with weapons to destroy Israel. What about US universities, which were only too happy to endow chairs in Middle Eastern studies which have poisoned the minds of college students against Israel for decades? (See NOTE below.)

What impact does influencing American students’ minds against Israel have on Middle Eastern facts on the ground? A lot. Today the majority of US younger generations favor Palestinians over Israelis, according to a recent poll. Support for Israel has plummeted in the US after nearly two years of war in Gaza, according to this and other recent polls.

The 9/29/25 poll, by The New York Times and Siena University, said that more respondents backed the Palestinians over Israel for the first time since the survey began asking the question in 1998.The poll was in line with other recent surveys showing Israel’s support dropping among swathes of the American public.

“Immediately after the October 7, 2023, Hamas invasion of Israel, 47% of respondents backed Israel, compared to 20% who backed Palestinians, The New York Times reported. In Monday’s survey, 35% supported the Palestinians, and 34% Israel, while the remainder said they didn’t know or didn’t favor either side.” (https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-two-years-of-war-us-public-backs-palestinians-over-israel-for-first-time-poll/)

Does American backing determine which country has the most power in the Middle East? To some extent yes, but it’s not the deciding factor. President Trump’s new policy is to reduce aid, military and otherwise, to foreign countries. His decision accords with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s announced resolve to reduce reliance on outside sources for IDF needs by ramping up Israeli production.

Even before the current US government announced it was reducing military subsidies to Israel, Jerusalem’s thinking had turned towards relying much more on local defense and high tech companies.

“During 2024, approximately 300 security startups received orders totaling NIS 1.2 billion ($331.5 million) from the Ministry of Defense as part of attempts to procure urgent technological solutions for the operational needs of IDF units during the war in Gaza and Lebanon.” (https://www.newsrael.com/posts/igo8qre4s38#google_vignette)

Those start up companies are additions to the existing formidable Israeli defense establishment. There’s no other nation in the Middle East that can compete with Israeli brainpower. That, and the indomitable Israeli spirit ensure that it will remain at the top of Middle Eastern countries. Despite its small population, about 10 million, Israel’s consequential impact on the region is predominant.

NOTE: “Between 2014 and 2019, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates donated at least US$4.4 billion to numerous US colleges. The top five universities that benefitted from these donations include Carnegie Mellon (Pittsburgh), which received US$1.4 billion, Cornell (US$1.2 billion), Harvard (US$894 million) and MIT (US$859 million), and Texas A&M (College Station, Texas) which received just over half a billion dollars. The next five universities include Yale (New Haven, Connecticut), Northwestern University (near Chicago, Illinois), Johns Hopkins [my alma matar] (Baltimore, Maryland), Georgetown (Washington, DC) and the University of Chicago, which received, US$495.8 million, US$402 million, US$401 million, US$379 million and US$364 million, respectively as of the report dated 30 March 2020.”
(https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20231208230952463)