Before Iran becomes the enemy on his southern border, Putin must let Israel and the US make up for his mistakes in Syria. Op-ed.
By Mark Langfan, INN 5/11/2020
Putin has absolutely no choice in a deal with Trump because of the upcoming US elections. At best for Putin, if Trump wins, whatever pre-election leverage Putin had in an eventual Russian/American Syria/Ukraine Deal will have been lost.
But worse, if Trump loses, any Democrat President will 1) Withdraw from Syria ceding eastern Syria and its oil to Iran, 2) flood Iran with hundreds of billions and drop all Iranian sanctions, while 3) keeping Russian sanctions on. In such a scenario, Iran will be able to militarily defeat Mother Russia in Syria.
So, for Putin it’s either make a deal now, or face a second “Afghanistan” while oil prices go down the drain wrapped in a COVID-19 chaser. Putin needs to trade Assad, Iran, and Maduro for Eastern Ukraine with a NATO-ized Western Ukraine.
But, let’s start at the beginning. About 5 years ago, in my December 2015 article entitled “Putin has Checkmated himself into a lose-lose Syrian debacle,” I stated: “Now, on the other hand, in the slim chance Putin “wins,” how exactly does Putin still lose? You have to think backwards from what a Putin end-game “victory” would likely look like. On the current trajectory, if Putin “wins,” he will have to have bulked up his ground forces and airbase footprint so as to be principally occupying Syria.”
“Then what? Who is Putin going to hand Syria off to after he wins? Are Russian-Orthodox soldiers going to occupy Syria forever? No. The only entity Putin can hand Syria off to is Iran. So, for all Putin’s losses and future costs in terms of Russian lives and money, Russia will not have “won” Syria, Iran will own Syria at Putin’s cost.”
Then, over two years ago, in February 2018, in my article entitled “Putin: Grand deal now, or Syrian Bust,” I stated: “Where to start? Russia must take the first step and cede all of eastern Syria to the United States’ Syrian allies. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently attacked the US for steps that he claimed “look more and more like a part of a course to create a quasi-state of sorts on a large chunk of Syrian territory. Autonomous, independent from Damascus governing bodies are being created in this territory, money keeps flowing there to keep them functional. Law enforcement, created there, is receiving weaponry.”
Putin must realize that FM Lavrov has been completely wrong on Syria from the start. Putin should do the exact opposite of what FM Lavrov says about Syria. Tell FM Larvov he should welcome the US creating a safe area in Syria. Next, tell Russia military, on the ground, to refuse all operations remotely east of the Euphrates River and south of Damascus. In the air, ignore any Israeli or American planes. Putin has to tell Syria and Iran that he didn’t buy into their Sh’iite Empire and isn’t going to defend it.”
Then in March 2018, in my article entitled, In Syria, Lavrov has failed Putin and Mother Russia, I stated: “The sands of the Syrian hour glass are now beginning to smother Putin and Mother-Russia. Putin’s not very bright Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov appears to have re-upped a new version of Jean Paul Sartre’s existential play No Exit.”
“In Sartre’s No Exit, three dead characters are stuck in the same room in the afterlife for eternity. In Syria, Russia is stuck in Sartre’s dead room located in Syria along with the Islamic Caliphate of Neo-Ottoman Turkey, and the Islamic Imanate of the Neo-Safavidic Iran.
“Eternity in Sartre’s afterlife is a long time. However, for Putin and Mother Russia, Russia’s FM Lavrov’s tragic mistake in Syria involving Turkey and Iran will seem a lot longer and more horrific than Sartre’s eternity. Putin’s only play now is to allow America and Israel to undo the strategic damage he and his foreign minister did to Russian strategic interests in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. . . . When one goes to sleep with dogs, one wakes up with fleas. When Lavrov and Putin went to sleep with the genocidal terrorist state of Iran, Lavrov and Putin woke up with war-crime referrals.
“In conclusion, Putin and Russia’s best course of action is to allow America and Israel to clean up the mess Lavrov has made of Syria. Lavrov keeps loudly frothing about the importance of the “territorial integrity” of Syria, when he should be quietly enabling the territorial disintegration of Syria.
“It is in the best interests of Russia to allow America and Israel to annihilate Iranian and Hezbollah assets in Syria and Lebanon as quickly and completely as they can. Russia’s ultimate strategic interest in protecting Cyprus, and Russia’s access to world banking and the Mediterranean Sea depend on it.”
I could cite my many additional clarion warnings to President Putin. I warned him and I was right.,
Now, I’m issuing a dire and stark warning for President Putin. Any 2020 Democrat President will unconditionally cede Syria and the entire Middle East including Saudi Arabia to Iran. Instead of winning the Eastern Med, Russia will have enabled the creation of an Islamic Nuclear super power to its south that will knock Russia out of Syria and beyond. Russia needs to deal with it now, and fast.
Here are the main points:
- Russia ditches Assad, and Iran on everything including Syria, and the Iranian nuclear file.
- Russia agrees to Alawite/Sunni government where Russia maintains protection of the Alawite coastal areas.
- Syria is divided into 4 autonomous zones: Alawite Coast, Sunni Damascus, Turkish North, and an American zone East of the Euphrates River.
- Russia recognizes the Monroe Doctrine, and ditches Venezuela’s Maduro and calls for democratic government without the evil Hezbollah/Iranian tentacles.
- America joins the Normandy 4 to make the Normandy 5 and effects a quasi-partition of Ukraine with trans-territorial rights to Russian-speaking Transnistria.
- Russia agrees to the accession of Western Ukraine to NATO with a demilitarized Eastern swatch of Western Ukraine and a demilitarized Western swatch of Eastern Ukraine.
- All anti-Russian sanctions are dropped.
Time is short. President Putin had better deal now, or he will lead Russia to a fatal catastrophe – and not only Russia, but all of mankind.
The writer is Chairman of Americans for a Safe Israel (AFSI) and specializes in security issues, has created an original educational 3D Topographic Map System of Israel to facilitate clear understanding of the dangers facing Israel and its water supply. It has been studied by US lawmakers and can be seen at www.MarkLangfan.com.