Peloni
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During an interview on Kol Berama radio in Jerusalem, Misgav Institute’s Prof. Zaki Shalom relates that Trump canceled a Friday night attack on Iran, and is instead using the threat of agreeing to have Israel return to complete the job in Iran. This is why there was no further attacks by the US on the 14th day of resuming targets strikes against Iran.
By doing so, Trump is wielding Israel as his Sword of Damocles over Iran’s head by which to force Iran back to the negotiating table. It should also be noted that while doing so Trump has required that the Iranians agree to all of his demands to avoid a return to war and his too often threat of releasing hell on Earth.
So, with this latest attempt at shotgun diplomacy in play, Trump has once again forced the fanatical Shia warlords in the IRGC to return to the negotiate. It is noteworthy that the negotiating table continues to be the stage on which the Iranians have the greater expertise and advantage over their American counterparts. It should be noted further that it was not American impatience with the Iranians which continues to bring the return to war over and over again. Rather the recurring pattern shows the Americans demanding Iranian concessions, following which the Iranians respond by targeting innocents on the high seas, and after some number of mishaps with or without the added caveat of an assassination attempt on the US President, the Americans return to using the only real leverage they have over Iran with their war fighters.
And so here we are again, once more with quiet returning to the region, the Iranians talking with the Americans, and one more round of delays before ‘all hell’ is promised to be set loose on Iran. The distinguishing mark from the interview with Prof. Shalom is that Israel is now being used as a threat to keep the annihilistic intent IRGC leadership at the negotiating table. So, with this latest threat will Trump be successful in having the IRGC finally agree to a regime saving hudna, or will the IRGC once more prove that they believe that Trump’s seemingly eternal reluctance to eliminate this regime is their ace in this game of battlefield poker. Trump keeps telling the IRGC and the world that Iran has no cards to play, but in suggesting that this is true, he ignores the one card which holds the IRGC in its pattern of defiance in the face of all of Trump’s threats, and that is that their faith in their annihilistic ideology is stronger than anything with which Trump might threaten them, and that includes the return of the IDF on the battlefield. So, will the IRGC choose a hudna or another round of war?
Make no doubt about it, either way, the IRGC are consumed with the reality that their faith is stronger than Trump’s resolve, and their actions and motivations are all related to this belief. The only way to dispel them of this belief is for Trump to actually end this regime and disprove the premise on which the Iranian ideology is based, namely that they are invincible, which has yet to be blunted by Trump’s preference to preserve this regime thru negotiation than to end it thru war. While Trump believes his opponents in Iran are weaker after these past four months of negotiations, his recognition that they refuse to acknowledge this leads him to characterize them as crazy, but the real truth is that they see themselves as holy warriors, thus far surviving every effort of the Great Satan and the Little Satan combined to destroy them. So while it is true that the effort to defeat this regime has left them weakened, Vahidi and his death cult supporters are in fact more resolved that their imminent victory is once more being evidenced by Trump once again refusing to follow thru on his threats to destroy them. These seemingly interminable rounds of negotiations are not weakening the internal accord within the IRGC, but are instead strengthening it.
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