In just a little more than a week, Syria could return to the civil strife its people suffered under for 13 years. A March deal to unify the militaries of President Ahmad al-Sharaa and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Abdi is unlikely to be consummated by the end of the year. Instead, there has been renewed conflict. “In the event that SDF forces refuse to implement the March agreement, matters may head towards escalation,” an Interior Ministry spokesperson warned after intense clashes with SDF forces in Aleppo on December 22.
At least three civilians were killed and dozens were wounded in the fighting. Both the Syrian government and the SDF agreed to de-escalate the tensions following the clashes. The key dispute between the two sides is whether SDF fighters will join with the Syrian Army as whole units, as the group’s leaders insist, allowing them to keep a certain amount of autonomy. While Damascus has “expressed an openness to reorganizing the [SDF’s] roughly 50,000 fighters into three main divisions,” Turkey, the central government’s key patron, has stressed that the SDF must integrate its fighters as individuals and not in distinct units.
Washington’s Interest in Preventing Conflict in Syria
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wants a stable Syria and has praised Sharaa for doing a “very good job.” A military confrontation between the Syrian government and the SDF would undermine U.S. interests. The SDF is a long-time U.S. counterterrorism partner against the Islamic State (ISIS), which continues to maintain a presence in Syria. The Kurdish-led group is also the primary force securing detention camps holding ISIS members in northeast Syria. Iran, Russia, and the ISIS would all be happy to take advantage of any renewed instability.
As part of its bet on Sharaa, the United States has rolled back most sanctions on Syria. More recently, Congress agreed to repeal the Caesar Act, intended to protect civilians from the Assad government, and recommended several benchmarks to clarify U.S. expectations of the new Syrian government. One of those benchmarks is the full implementation of the March agreement, including its security and political provisions.
Turkish Threats Against the SDF
On December 22, a Turkish delegation led by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Defense Minister Ya?ar Güler visited Damascus, for talks focused primarily on how Ankara and Damascus would handle the SDF in the near term. “We see the SDF has no intention to make too much of an advance [toward integration],” stated Fidan after meeting with Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani.
Fidan told the SDF that Turkey prefers “dialogue, negotiation, and peaceful means,” Ankara does not want to be “forced to resort to the military option again.”
In early December, a Turkish press report claimed that if the SDF does not agree to integrate into the Syrian army before January 2026, then “Damascus will carry out an operation and [Turkey] will support it.”
The United States Has a Stake in Keeping Syria at Peace
If the March agreement collapses, Syria risks sliding back into the instability that allowed America’s adversaries like Iran to entrench themselves in the region and unraveling hard-won U.S. gains against ISIS.
The United States, which has served as the primary mediator between the SDF and Damascus, should take a more active role in preventing a return to conflict. First, Washington should remind Sharaa that the peaceful integration of the SDF is a core U.S. expectation tied to sanctions relief, and that preserving stability must take precedence over Turkey’s demands and its campaign against the SDF. Second, the United States should make clear to all parties that it retains the authority to impose sanctions on any individual or entity that “threatens the peace, security, stability, or territorial integrity of Syria,” as originally outlined in Executive Order 13894. Military action between the SDF and Damascus or Turkish intervention against the SDF would clearly fall within the scope of that authority.
Ahmad Sharawi?is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe?HERE. Follow Ahmad on X?@AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X?@FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Integration into the military is how the Turks exterminated the Armenians. The regimentation was applied to concentrate their numbers, they were posed as initiating some sort of confrontation and then systematically gunned down. The process was extended to entire populations applying mass murder and forced displacement.