Arlene Kushner | Jan 26, 2026
Staff Sergeant Ran Gvili. Screengrab via Youtube
Here we are, post-Davos. Trump has announced the beginning of the second phase of his peace plan.
This, in spite of the fact that the remains of our last hostage, Staff Sergeant Ran Gvili, have not been returned: All hostages, living and dead, were to be returned in phase one.
Ran was a hero. Although he was on medical leave from his duties as a Yasam special forces police officer because of a broken shoulder, he rushed to be of assistance when he learned about the atrocities being committed on October 7. He got as far as Kibbutz Alumim and there led the fight, inspiring others and taking down a number of terrorists himself before he was kidnapped into Gaza.
A friend in his Yasam unit who fought alongside him that day describes the scene: “He wasn’t supposed to be able to lift his arm, but he fought there like a lion. They found 14 terrorist bodies at the kidnapping site. It’s like a science fiction movie. No ordinary person could do that.”
Today, he is known as “Rani, Shield of Alumim”. The kibbutz has erected a memorial in his memory, and his family awaits his return.
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The irony here is that five days ago, Trump declared during a press conference that, “We think we know” where Ran’s body is.
So he couldn’t pressure Hamas on this big time (or get Witkoff to get his friends in Qatar to pressure Hamas) and wait on the second phase? Trump simply preferred not to wait any longer to start the next phase: He is very eager to get going and says the search for Ran’s remains will continue.
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But this is only one part of the story. The plan also says: “Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty.”
No members of Hamas have agreed to “peaceful co-existence and decommissioning of their weapons.” Decommissioning means rendering the weapons incapable of being used again. What Hamas leaders have declared again and again is that they will hold on to their weapons.
Last month, top Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya said in an interview that Hamas will keep its weapons until a Palestinian state is established. Hamas is not prepared to accept a force empowered to operate within Hamas-held areas or to dismantle its arsenal.
“Al-Hayya said he told U.S. envoys Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner that Hamas views its weapons as tied to what he called ‘the existence of the occupation and the aggression.’”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1yhh3mmbx
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Al-Hayya’s position echoed that of leader Khalid Mashaal, who stated a month prior that “The resistance project and its weapons must be protected. It is the right of our people to defend themselves. The resistance and its weapons are the honor and strength of the nation.”
He declared that “The time has come for the nation to decide on the liberation of Jerusalem as a symbol of the liberation of Palestine, the cleansing of the Al-Aqsa Mosque…“ [Read: the time has come for an attack on Jerusalem even bigger than October 7.]
https://honestreporting.com/hamas-rejects-disarmament-threatens-another-october-7-media-silence/
Subsequently, Mashaal declared that relinquishing the Resistance’s weapons “is like removing the soul from the body.”
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If we step back and look again at the sentence in the 20-point plan regarding decommissioning of weapons, we see that it does not require decommissioning, it simply offers the incentive of amnesty to those who do agree to cooperate. But it appears this is not a major incentive for Hamas members (although a handful of leaders may choose to leave).
And so, our question is, how is Trump dealing with Hamas’s insistence on retaining weapons?
At Davos, Trump addressed this issue thus:
“I do. I think we have peace in the Middle East.
“There are some little situations, like Hamas. And Hamas has agreed to give up their weapons…When they were born, they were born with a rifle in their hand. It’s not an easy thing for them, but that’s what they agreed to. They’ve got to do it. And we’re going to see over the next two or three days, certainly over the next three weeks, whether or not they’re gonna do it. If they don’t, they’re going to be blown away very quickly.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/421258
This statement is awash in poppycock. There is no peace in the Middle East, and I will get to this below. Nor did Hamas agree to give up its weapons. As to their being blown away (by whom is not clear), this is a typically bombastic statement from Trump; we need not take him literally.
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In the course of his presentation at Davos, during which he unveiled the “Master Plan for Gaza,” Jared Kushner outlined the way he hopes matters will go.
“We have a new government in Gaza,” he declared. “This government will be working with Hamas on the demilitarization to really take the principles that were agreed to in the document to the next phase.”
This statement generates the false impression that Hamas has agreed to demilitarize and will be working with this new government to make it happen. It is not so.
The “new government” is the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). Head of NCAG, Ali Shaath (a member of Fatah and former official of the PA), has confirmed the assigned role of NCAG.
According to the plan, the NCAG police force will “completely dismantle the military structure” of Hamas in Gaza, under international verification.
“Heavy weapons, tunnels, military infrastructure, weapons production facilities, and munitions (will be) destroyed… Heavy weapons will be decommissioned immediately. Personal arms will be registered and decommissioned by sector as NCAG police (10,000-15,000 Palestinian police personnel – many coming from the PA – trained by Egypt and Jordan) becomes capable of guaranteeing personal security.”
This is a totally impossible scenario. Remember that in two years of fighting the IDF was not able to take out all of the tunnels. Kilometers still remain. In theory, Hamas is going to provide the NCAG with maps of the remaining tunnels. Is there anyone who really believes this will happen? If some tunnels remain intact then Hamas can hide weapons and munitions within them, thus protecting them from destruction.
Elsewhere I have read that there is talk of allowing Hamas members to retain their personal arms once they are registered. NCAG is not in a position to disarm thousands of members of Hamas and surely will not be permitted to even register them all. Dan Diker, president of JCFA, has suggested that Hamas might surrender some of their weapons, thus creating the impression that they are cooperating. Additionally, an idea is floating to offer Hamas political recognition if they surrender their weapons. A terrible idea.
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In his talk at Davos, Jared observed that the very fact that Muslim and Arab states, including Turkey and Qatar, have signed a document stating that Hamas must disarm and Gaza be demilitarized, is a “huge achievement” for Israel.
This statement is terribly, even shockingly, wrong-headed. Jared knows: He knows that Israel was strongly opposed to the inclusion of Turkey and Qatar, as they are directly affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood and support Hamas standing in Gaza.
Jared may be naïve, but not that naïve. We must take a hard look at his motivation, as well as the motivation of his father-in-law Trump, and his fellow envoy, Witkoff.
It might be the case that Qatar and Turkey have been included because of their ability to pacify Hamas – to tone down their overtly aggressive behavior. This would generate an impression that the situation is peaceful, and all of the marvelous development that is being planned can take place.
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~~~~~~~~~~ A newly released study authored by Lt. Col. (res.) Jonathan D. Halevi and published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, “asserts that Qatar provided Hamas with long-term political protection, sustained financial backing, and ideological reinforcement. “According to the research, this support created the conditions that allowed Hamas to evolve into a heavily armed organization capable of executing one of the deadliest terrorist assaults in Israel’s history.” ~~~~~~~~~~ Yaron Buskila, CEO of the Israel Defense & Security forum, writes (emphasis added): “Just hours before addressing the UN General Assembly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared on American television and stated plainly: “I do not see Hamas as a terrorist organization. On the contrary, I see it as a legitimate resistance movement. Hamas has no real weapons or significant capabilities.” “This statement did not come from a marginal extremist figure. It came from the leader of a NATO member state now expected to play a central role in Gaza’s proposed ‘Peace Council’ – the very body tasked with overseeing Hamas’s dismantling and Gaza’s postwar stabilization…” https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-884038 ~~~~~~~~~~ Amine Ayoub, Amine Ayoub, is a Moroccan pro-Israel activist and a Muslim (at least as declared over recent years, despite his reservations). He is a fellow at the Middle East Forum. Ayoub offers a serious critique of Trump’s plan in his article, “The 60,000 rifle mirage: Why Gaza’s Board of Peace risks a strategic catastrophe”. (Emphasis in the original here and added below). |
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Here I share critical thoughts from that analysis and urge you to read and share his entire article. This is a man who gets it, profoundly. This may be the case because he lives in Morocco and not America. “The announcement of a transition to phase two of the Gaza ceasefire has been greeted with familiar language about progress, stabilization, and moving forward… “On paper, the architecture appears orderly and responsible. In practice, it rests on a dangerous misreading of how wars in the Middle East actually end. “Phase two is being sold as realism. In truth, it is an exercise in strategic denial. It assumes that administrative order can precede military resolution, that governance can neutralize ideology, and that international supervision can replace coercive power. “These assumptions are not merely optimistic; they are historically unfounded. “Gaza is not suffering from a shortage of committees or oversight mechanisms. It is suffering from the continued existence of Hamas as an armed, disciplined, and ideologically committed force that has neither surrendered nor accepted defeat. “This distinction matters. As long as Hamas remains intact, any civilian authority installed in Gaza will operate under its shadow… “The problem in Gaza is not who administers electricity, sanitation, or aid distribution. The problem is that a heavily armed movement remains embedded in the population with a strategic objective that has not changed. “The core flaw in phase two is the belief that wars can be ended through management rather than resolution. Ceasefires and transitional arrangements do not conclude conflicts; they freeze them. “When a freeze is mistaken for an ending, the result is not peace but postponement. Violence returns once the underlying balance of power reasserts itself. “Hamas has not been broken to the point of submission. It has been damaged, degraded, and disrupted, but not neutralized. Israeli intelligence estimates indicate that the group still commands roughly 20,000 fighters and retains access to as many as 60,000 rifles. “This is not a marginal remnant or a criminal fringe. It is an organized armed force capable of reconstituting itself if given time and space. “The disarmament component of phase two further exposes the illusion at work. The Board of Peace is expected to oversee the decommissioning of unauthorized armed personnel and the dismantling of military infrastructure… “Yet Hamas has already signaled that it has no intention of disarming and has openly treated the ceasefire as operational breathing space. “While international actors discuss reconstruction frameworks and investment figures, Hamas is gathering intelligence, assessing Israeli deployments, and preparing for the next round. “At a deeper level, phase two misunderstands how power is perceived in the Middle East. Political legitimacy flows from strength, not process… “When victory is replaced with management, deterrence erodes. When enemies believe they have survived, they believe they can win… “What is being framed as a transition to peace is more accurately a holding pattern. Reconstruction will proceed, funds will be pledged, institutions will be created, and beneath it all, the same armed infrastructure will persist. “Sixty thousand rifles do not disappear because a board convenes. They disappear only when the force that holds them is compelled to surrender them. “Phase two does not answer the central question of the war. It avoids it… “By advancing governance before enforcing defeat, the Board of Peace risks turning Gaza into a more polished, better-funded staging ground for the next catastrophe…” ~~~~~~~~~~ Israel understands all of this. The IDF is the only force that can take Hamas down and is prepared to do so. What I am painfully aware of is that it will be more difficult because of the Trump “ceasefire,” which is providing Hamas with an opportunity to strengthen. ~~~~~~~~~~ Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael: for the wisdom and courage of our leaders and the strength of our IDF and all of our people. ©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. |
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