Will war erupt with Iran at any moment?

Avi Abelow | Jan 29, 2026

Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and Cavour Carrier Strike Group sail in formation, Aug 9, 2026.  (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jerome D. Johnson) The appearance of U.S. Department of War (DoW) visual information does not imply or constitute DoW endorsement.

Right now, the entire world is holding its breath.

Will President Trump decide to strike Iran?
Will this spiral into a far wider regional war?

Will China get involved as an ally of Iran?
Will Iran unleash Hezbollah, militias, the Houthis, and even sleeper networks abroad including in the U.S., in a desperate attempt to widen the battlefield?

Or will none of that happen, because Iran caves and signs a deal under overwhelming pressure?

We are in a moment of historic limbo. And to understand it, we have to stop analyzing through the usual diplomatic fantasy lens.

You will not understand what is going on if you rely on the traditional diplomatic talk of about “off-ramps,” “de-escalation,” “processes,” and “confidence-building.” But if you want to understand what may be happening between Trump and Iran, you must understand the man’s operating system:
President Trump is not an ideologue. He is a pressure-based dealmaker.

According to foreign reports, Trump wants to end Iran’s path to a military nuclear capability. No enrichment. Period. He wants to cripple their long-range missile capabilities. And for them to totally stop funding and directing terror proxies around the world.

He doesn’t want war but he is willing to go to war if Iran does not agree to the deal.

That is President Trump’s peace through strength.

The reported deal forces Khamenei into a brutal dilemma. Accepting Trump’s deal guts the Islamic republic of Iran’s overall mission, global jihad. It doesn’t remove the regime physically, but it amputates its foreign-policy DNA — no nuclear path, no long-range missile threat, no terror empire. That’s not cosmetic. That’s strategic neutering.

Trump sincerely hopes Iran agrees to the deal to nix any breakout of war.

But here’s where we must be brutally honest, and where the danger lies.

There are three possible paths, not two:
1. Iran refuses the deal – and we move toward military confrontation, possibly massive.
2. Iran accept the deal sincerely – and the threat is structurally reduced.
3. Iran accepts the deal tactically – and this is the most dangerous illusion.

In that third scenario, a deal is not peace. It is a pause. A breathing period for the Islamic regime of Iran to placate Trump, stop the breakout of war, and instead decide to wait a few years for a post-Trump global leadership environment, one they consider softer, more constrained, less willing to use force.

From that perspective, agreeing to Trump’s deal is not surrender. It is camouflage.

This is why the world feels like it’s standing on a knife’s edge. If war erupts, it may not stay confined. Iran could activate proxies against Israel, sleeper cells in the U.S. It could try to expand the theater. And the global implications , with major powers involved, are unpredictable.

But if there is a deal, the danger doesn’t automatically disappear. It shifts. The question becomes:
Is the threat dismantled — or just delayed?

We still don’t know which path we are on: war, real rollback, or temporary illusion. But one thing must remain clear in our minds:
We are not facing ordinary political competitors. We are facing a Shia jihad Muslim regime whose leadership frames history as an ongoing civilizational struggle to take over the whole world in the name of Allah, where compromise can be tactical, and time can be weaponized. They have waited 1,400+ years. Pushing off their plan a few years is not the biggest deal.

Ignoring that dimension does not make it go away.

Trump may be applying maximum pressure in a way no one else has. That may force real change, or only a temporary retreat.

But he will not be in office forever.

And our adversaries know how to wait.

No matter how events unfold, we here in Israel will endure and continue to build. We have returned home as a sovereign people with purpose and responsibility. Whether war erupts with Iran or not, whether we face attacks or not, our national story does not stop. These are redemptive times.

Energy spent on fear is energy lost. Invest that strength instead in deepening your faith, your resilience, and your connection to the things that are really important in life that you have control over.

Am Yisrael Chai!!!