Arlene Kushner | March 17, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei. By Tasnim News Agency, CC BY 4.0, Wikipedia
The joint Israeli-US war on Iran (Roaring Lion – Epic Fury) began on February 28 with great power. In the first days, according to IDF Intelligence sources, accomplishments actually exceeded expectations. Speedily, the Israeli Air Force achieved air superiority over Iranian skies. By now, approximately 70% of Iran’s missile launchers have been rendered inoperable and Iran’s missile production capability currently stands at zero.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/423991
An enormous coup on the very first day was achieved with the elimination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a number of other high-level officials including the defense minister and several generals.
So far, the IDF has struck more than 2,200 regime-related sites, the majority in Tehran. Targets have included locations associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, government ministries, internal security bodies, and the Basij militia. In many instances, the focus was on targets where there was an indication that individuals – presumably of some note – were present inside the facilities.
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Yet, while the hits continue, the momentum seems to have shifted and debates regarding the purpose of the war have ensued. Is it to bring down the regime? Or to eliminate Iran’s military capability, both with regard to nuclear weaponry and ballistic missiles?
While the goal of bringing down the regime has not been abandoned, the focus at the moment seems to be on eliminating Iran’s military capability. There are those who say the regime change may occur after the operation has ended.
Ali Khomenei’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has strong ties to the Guards, has been officially appointed supreme leader. But his situation is cloaked in mystery. He has not appeared in public since his appointment, nor have any recent photos of him been released. There is broad speculation that he was injured in the attack that killed his father and thus is in seclusion.
Some observers are suggesting that he might actually have been killed in that attack. While this is basically conjectural, there is reason to speculate in this direction. At any rate, questions are being raised as to who is actually running the country. The assessment in the White House is that it is very likely the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp.
To make matters more interesting, evidence has surfaced that Ali Khamenei did not consider this son to be a prime candidate to replace him, because he is “not very bright” and “unqualified to be leader,” in addition to which he is struggling with some personal issues.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-890011
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Both Israel and the US are saying that by weakening the regime they are creating the conditions for bringing it down, but that ultimately it is only the people of Iran who can do it. They are encouraging Iran’s citizens to come out in the streets again in large numbers. There has not been a large-scale response to this call, which is certainly understandable, considering that over 30,000 of their fellow citizens were killed by the regime the last time there were major protests in the streets.
The Basij is a particularly vicious volunteer militia associated with the Revolutionary Guards that attacks civilians who are protesting.
Basij forces. Screengrab via Youtube
Israel has been hitting checkpoints belonging to the Basij militia that have recently been set up in numerous cities across the country. But last night we took action of far greater significance:
Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced today that Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, the head of the Basij force, were “eliminated last night.”
Since the elimination of Ali Khamenei more than two weeks ago, Larijani was viewed as one of the most powerful figures in the country.
Both men were key to the violent crackdown on protests in January.
Their elimination represents a major blow to the regime and may serve a major role in bringing it down.
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I have alluded in previous posts to the role Kurdish forces may yet place. Shimon Sherman brings us up-to-date on this situation (emphasis added):
“As Israel and the U.S. aircraft have systematically pushed deeper into the Iranian heartland, regime control over the provinces on the western and southern flanks has been systematically degraded.
“These western provinces along the Zagros mountain range are home to a vast population of ethnic Kurds who have historically been subjugated by the Islamic Republic and are now increasingly being viewed as a critical asset in any attempt to replace the regime in Tehran.
“While Israeli and U.S. airstrikes have neutralized the regime’s high-level military assets, both countries are currently unwilling to commit ‘boots on the ground’ for the sake of securing territory.
“Recent reports indicate that this strategic gap is being increasingly filled by Kurdish militias…
“On Feb. 22, five principal Iranian Kurdish opposition parties—the PDKI, PAK, PJAK, the Khabat Organization and the Komala Party—signed a historic Charter of Cooperation in Erbil, Iraq. This agreement established a Joint Command Center designed to integrate the forces under one command structure.
“The resulting organization, the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan (CPFIK), synthesized diverse ideological perspectives…creating a single operational front against the Tehran regime…
“This organized military capability contrasts sharply with the monarchist and secular-liberal movements in the Iranian diaspora. While the latter maintain international recognition and media influence, they lack a parallel ‘boots on the ground’ component within Iran, positioning the Kurdish forces as the primary opposition domestic military structure capable of holding territory.
“The increased significance of the Kurdish forces has been underscored by an unprecedented backchannel established between the White House and the Kurdish leadership…”
https://www.jns.org/kurds-prepare-to-launch-ground-offensive-against-iran/
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Iran has continued to attack the Gulf states – UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman – with considerable force; the United Arab Emirates has borne the brunt of these attacks with 1,500 drones and more than 200 missiles utilized in attacks on airports, ports, and infrastructure in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
See here an attack on a five-star hotel in Dubai:
Screengrab from X
I had anticipated that, in light of these attacks, at least some of the Gulf States would have joined the war against Iran by now. But, so far at least, they have been playing it safe. In spite of the attacks – more than 2,000 missiles and drones have been launched by Iran towards them – they are aware that if the Iranian regime is not taken down, they will still have to deal with it in the future. They are concerned with ramifications for “the day after.”
But yesterday (Monday) Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) met with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to discuss the issue of whether they should continue to avoid a public confrontation with Iran.
According to White House officials, MBS has been urging Trump to hit Iran hard.
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I refer above to “the day after” and that applies as well with regard to how the Saudis will relate to Israel. Whether they join the military operation or not, we are on the same side here. There has been talk of “normalization” for some time and the opportune moment may yet be coming. See:
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/03/16/israels-secret-contacts-to-reshape-middle-east-after-war/
“Diplomatic sources in the region and in the US confirm that Israel is holding contacts with countries that do not currently maintain formal diplomatic relations with it. The groundwork being laid is intended to produce a series of regional agreements in security, defense, commerce and politics under a US umbrella…”
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The government of Israel has a high rate of approval regarding the war with Iran. Across the board, 82% of Israelis approve. Among Jewish Israelis, there is an exceedingly high rate of 93%. Prime Minster Netanyahu, then, does not have to contend with significant internal opposition to Roaring Lion.
Israel’s message of intent to continue fighting has been consistent – at least with regard to the goal of debilitating Iran’s systems and military capabilities…
In a recent briefing, IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effi Defrin declared that “We have a precise plan. We still have thousands of targets in Iran, and we are identifying new targets every day.”
Brig. Gen. Effi Defrin. Screengrab via Youtube
The current estimation is that Roaring Lion will end approximately when Pesach begins or a bit after. The United States recently increased shipments of munitions to Israel to support the Israeli operations.
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Head of IDF intelligence, Shlomi Binder, is delivering an optimistic message, as he says the Iranians are “discovering how exposed their command structure is and the damage that has been caused… They’re in distress.”
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What Israel is also contending with, however, and will almost certainly continue to contend with well past Pesach, is Hezbollah. This Iranian proxy in Lebanon was foolish enough to attempt to lend Iran support by lobbing missiles into Israel. Israel has had enough and is operating in a major fashion to take them out – we have troops in south Lebanon and there is talk about taking over south of the Litani River.
Map of the Litani River. CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikipedia
This front is now considered a second front to be dealt with, equal to the Iranian front. We’ve been there, done that. The lesson which Israel has now learned is that the enemy must be thoroughly dismantled. At present, the north is enduring one barrage of Hezbollah missiles after another.
See analysis by Yaakov Lapin here:
https://www.jns.org/only-idf-presence-in-lebanon-can-defend-northern-israel/
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The situation regarding the US battle with Iran is considerably more complex than what Israel has to deal with. Within the US there is significant opposition to what Trump is doing with regard to Iran.
Trump, being Trump, has given mixed messages over the past several days. There seems to be every indication that at least part of what he has been saying from time to time concerning a speedy pullout is intended to reassure the opposition in the US. And yet, inevitably, except with regard to diehard Trump loyalists, this generates a certain confusion or unease.
Currently the president has indicated that the US will not pull out yet, but that the time draws near: “A couple of weeks. It won’t be much longer.”
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The Iranians have sought to generate international unrest by blocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This strait, which runs between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. It is one of the world’s most strategically important waterways. Blockage of ships has created instability in oil prices, and Trump is livid. NATO allies have refused to participate in helping to open the Strait.
My take, which might be wrong, is that the president would be most reluctant to pull out while Iran is blocking shipping in the Hormuz. He will want to leave as a victor.
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Since the beginning of this war on February 28, we have lost two IDF soldiers and 11 civilians killed. Roughly 3,000 have been injured in ballistic missile attacks, often by shrapnel. Several houses have been damaged or destroyed.
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Please keep praying – for the safety of our civilians and soldiers, and for victory for Israel. It is difficult to exaggerate what it might mean for the Middle East and the Western world, should Islamist Iran come down.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
An excellent article.
The Kurds in Iran, just like elsewhere, are reluctant to extend themselves because the believe they will be left alone to deal with the consequences, similar to the gulf states. Who could blame them?
Hezbollah needs to be dealt with too. The only way is going to be full control of Lebanon. This will not go down well anywhere, not even in Israel. Quite aside from that, when they flee to Syria, the problem is still there.