IRAN: WHAT DOES “VICTORY” LOOK LIKE FOR TRUMP?

Mudar Zahran

* Let’s get straight to the point. Trump is NOT trying to repeat the disaster of George W. Bush in Iraq. Back then, they didn’t just remove Saddam Hussein, they dismantled the entire state. Police gone. Health system gone. Government bodies wiped out. The result? Total collapse and chaos. In my view, that wasn’t a mistake. That was a controlled demolition. And it led to a never-ending war that cost U.S. taxpayers TRILLIONS, money that flowed straight into companies like Halliburton and others tied to people like Dick Cheney. That’s not even hidden.

* THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT — THE STATE STAYS, THE HEAD GOES

With Iran, the objective is the opposite. Keep the structure, remove the dangerous actors. The focus is on the top layer, the untouchables, people like Ali Khamenei who believed nobody would ever dare touch them. Trump’s doctrine flips that completely. It’s about cutting the head of the snake, not burning down the whole house. Leadership decapitation, not state destruction.

* TARGET #1: THE IRGC — THE REAL POWER CORE

The real target isn’t the regular army or police. It’s the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Think of it as the regime’s ideological backbone, closer to an elite political-military class than a normal force. Highly trained, with backing from Russia and China, and in some units comparable to top-tier Western forces. But more important: they are deeply ideological AND extremely wealthy. Around a million of them living above ordinary Iranians. A regime within a regime.

* THE STRATEGY: PUSH THEM BACK, THEN NEGOTIATE

The goal is not random bombing. It’s pressure with direction. Push the IRGC away from strategic zones like the Gulf, force them inward toward Tehran, weaken their grip economically and militarily. Once that shift happens, THAT’S when negotiations begin. The objective? Dismantle the IRGC as a power structure without collapsing Iran itself. This is not speculation, this is how the playbook is shaping up.

* TARGET #2: THE NUCLEAR MATERIAL — NON-NEGOTIABLE

Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is a red line. We’re talking hundreds of thousands of kilograms, enriched to dangerous levels. Trump’s position is simple: it cannot stay in Iran, and it cannot go to allies like Russia. The endgame? Remove it entirely, even potentially to the United States. Without that, this war does NOT end. Period.

* BALLISTIC MISSILES: THE PROBLEM NO ONE CAN IGNORE

Then you have ballistic missiles. These aren’t basic weapons. These are long-range systems that leave the atmosphere and strike with precision. Extremely hard to intercept, even with advanced systems like THAAD or Israel’s Arrow systems. And when hundreds are launched in minutes, defense systems get overwhelmed. That’s the reality. These missiles already reach parts of Europe, and in a few years, possibly beyond.

* INSIDE GAME: FINDING “USABLE” PEOPLE WITHIN THE REGIME

At the same time, there’s another track: internal restructuring. Contacts are being made within the Iranian system itself. The goal is NOT regime collapse, but regime adjustment. Find figures inside who are pragmatic enough to stabilize the country and end the escalation cycle. This is the quiet part of the strategy, but it’s critical.

* THE BIGGER PICTURE: WHY THIS IS HAPPENING NOW

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: if this didn’t happen now, Iran would have reached a point where the West would be forced to negotiate from weakness. Backed by China, with a mature nuclear program, and full regional leverage. You would’ve seen the balance flip completely. That’s the paradox. The same system that invaded Iraq over “weapons of mass destruction” ignored Iran while it built real capabilities. That era is over.

April 15, 2026 | Comments »

Leave a Reply