Arlene Kushner | April 20, 2026
Clipart Panda
Well, actually we have several big problems and a major headache.
The gist of it is that we are facing down Islamist forces that seek to destroy us, while working with an American president who has supported us as no other president ever has – but who has shown in recent days (and not for the first time) that he can turn on us in an instant if it suits him and, not incidentally, behave in a manner that seems not quite rational.
This makes our heads spin here in Israel.
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In a recent posting, while reserving final judgement, I asked some pertinent questions:
“What does Trump, who is a transactionalist and not an idealogue, understand about the reality of the Islamist mindset? Will he settle for less than is needed and call it a win? Or will he, indeed, hold tough?”
Today the questions are less rhetorical than they were just days ago. Of course we already understood Trump’s proclivities – the preference for making deals, etc. But in recent days he has made those inclinations so much more disturbingly apparent.
Trump, the transactionalist, understands nothing about the Islamist mindset. And I am greatly uneasy about the possibility that he might settle for less than is necessary to effectively deal with the Islamists, as long as he can call the resultant situation a win.
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The Iranians are unspeakably vile, but they are not stupid. Surely they understood that creating economic problems in the States would generate pressure on Trump, with calls to stop the war. Those economic problems constitute the president’s Archilles’ heel.
Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow, strategically vital waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and beyond that to the Arabian Sea. Some 20% of the world’s oil supply comes through that Strait and the price of gas skyrocketed.
![Map of Strait of Hormuz. Image by Pascal - This image is a derivative work of [1]http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/hormuz_80.jpg from [2] http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east.html, which was created by the w:Central Intelligence Agency in 1980 and hence is PD-US-Gov, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79202](https://www.israpundit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/500px-Strait_of_Hormuz-300x184.jpg)
Map of Strait of Hormuz. Image by Pascal – This image is a derivative work of [1] Lib.UTexas.edu from [2] Lib.UTexas.edu, which was created by the w:Central Intelligence Agency in 1980 and hence is PD-US-Gov, Public Domain, Wikipedia
At that point, Trump’s focus shifted away from other goals set out for the war – recovering all nuclear material from Iran, securing a commitment to cease support of proxies, etc. He was determined, above all else, to break the siege on the Strait. He had brought in such a large array of military force – planes, troops, aircraft carriers – that I for one (among many) was reasonably certain he was going to order an attack, of one sort or another. But to date, he has not unleashed that power – although he apparently came close and he still might.
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What the president did do is put up a highly publicized Truth Social posting that spoke about destroying the Iranian civilization.
According to an enlightening report from Times of Israel, citing the Wall Street Journal, “US President Donald Trump has been making key decisions about the war in Iran in a slapdash manner without input from his advisers.” In one instance, on Easter Sunday, he wrote, “Open the F* Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell,” and signed off with “Praise be to Allah.”
This brought a wave of criticism, but he told an advisor that he put in the “Praise be to Allah” in order to “scare the Iranians to the negotiating table by seeming unstable.”
Similarly, according to administration officials, “his threat that ‘a whole civilization will die tonight’…was also done off-the-cuff without coordination with advisers and was another Trump move to try to spook the Iranians and get them to agree to a deal.”
This ploy was only partially successful. His wording was so fiercely over the top that it succeeded in alarming the Iranian regime, which sent the “mediators” from Pakistan to seek negotiations.
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We should note that a day before the talks were to begin, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, defense minister of Pakistan, wrote that “Israel is evil and a curse for humanity.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rkj6gcb2wg
This speaks volumes about the impropriety of utilizing Pakistan as a “mediator.”
A ceasefire of two-weeks duration was called in preparation for the talks, with the stipulation that the Strait would stay open.
Heading the US negotiating team this time was Vice President JD Vance – reportedly at the request of the Iranians. He was accompanied by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
By Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America – J. D. Vance, CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikipedia
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That meeting was all that Trump secured with his “fierce” message: It didn’t take long for Vance to announce that after 21 hours of negotiations no progress had been made. The team went back to the US, and many of us assumed that, at the end of the two weeks allocated for the ceasefire, hostilities would resume.
I will not belabor the details of what has transpired with regard to the Strait, as the situation seems to shift every few hours. The Iranians kept the Strait open only very briefly and then closed it again.
Trump, in response to the behavior of the Iranians, instituted a blockade at Iranian ports, thereby hampering Iranian commerce. The Iranians made demands regarding their right to charge a substantial fee for every ship they let through and shot at two ships. Apparently the Strait is now under full IRGC control.
https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/trump-iran-us-war-strait-hormuz-blockade-israel-lebanon-april-18
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And then there is the matter of Hezbollah and Lebanon, which is of major importance to Israel.
Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy force, had been launching missiles and drones at the north of Israel at a fierce rate, making life miserable for Israelis in the north – wreaking casualties and causing tens of thousands to flee their homes in the line of rocket fire. The IDF has been working actively to contain this malign group and ultimately disarm it. The immediate goal for Israel – which is operating in south Lebanon – has been to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River.
Litani River. Image created via AI
When Trump announced the ceasefire between the US and Iran, Israel participated, halting all attacks on Iran, but insisted upfront that this did not apply to Hezbollah. The Iranians maintained that Hezbollah indeed was included. As it turned out, the “mediators” in Pakistan had relayed this inaccurate information.
Trump stepped in at this point to “make peace” in Lebanon. Four days ago, he announced a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon between the Lebanese government and Israel. This, too, is part of the president’s style: To impose a situation on other entities and then make announcements on behalf of those entities as if they were fait accompli.
The president said he would be inviting Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to Washington for “meaningful talks” that would resolve “all remaining issues” and enable the parties –Israel and Lebanon – to reach a comprehensive peace agreement.
https://www.jns.org/news/u-s-news/israel-lebanon-agree-to-10-day-truce-trump-says
Now there was something slightly ludicrous about a “peace agreement” in Lebanon that did not include Hezbollah.
President Joseph Aoun expressed reluctance to participate. He surely did not want to be in the position of having responsibility for disarming Hezbollah, something that the Lebanese army has demonstrated time and again it is incapable of doing.
Trump was quick to announce that this was the 10th war he had ended – but the war was by no stretch of the imagination ended, with an armed Hezbollah still in place.
Commentators saw this meeting as potentially positive, as it would put the government of Lebanon and the government of Israel on the same side, and identify the Lebanese requirement to address the problem of Hezbollah and properly assert its sovereignty.
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Netanyahu was satisfied with the ceasefire agreement – please note this carefully! – because it said that Israel will retain a right to self-defense “at any time, against planned, imminent or ongoing attacks” but will otherwise cease offensive military operations in Lebanon. It additionally permitted Israel to maintain a “reinforced security buffer zone” in south Lebanon to protect the residents of northern Israel.
IDF troops, who did not move from their locations in south Lebanon, were prepared to hold their fire for the ten days of the ceasefire under pressure from the US. (Trump subsequently acknowledged that pressure.) But they were ready to return to offensive attacks on Hezbollah at the end of what had been presented to Israel by the US as a very temporary measure to encourage negotiations.
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir (below) said he had approved new battle plans for Lebanon that designated southern Lebanon, up to the Litani River, as a “killing zone for Hezbollah terrorists.” There is no way Israel intended the battle with Hezbollah to end with this ceasefire.
Image via IDF
Immediately after the ceasefire went into effect, Hezbollah launched a major barrage of weapons into northern Israel but then held their fire, as instructed by Iran. It suited the Iranian regime to take Hezbollah out of the equation. On Thursday, Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf put out a post on social media claiming that “the ceasefire was nothing but a result of Hezbollah’s steadfastness and the unity of the Axis of Resistance… we will remain together until the full realization of victory.”
One day later, Trump, in an effort to what? appease, pacify, show favor towards Iran made the most outrageous statement of all:
“Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you!“
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/425662
“PROHIBITED”? Say what? Taking a stand that disregards the security of Israelis and the right of Israel to self-defense.
According to reports, Netanyahu was “personally stunned and alarmed” by this post, which disregarded commitments to Israel. “There are things we plan to do regarding the remaining rocket threat and drone threat which I will not detail,” he had said.
PM Netanyahu’s Remarks at the Start of Today’s Government Meeting. Screengrab via X. Screengrab via X
Secretary of Defense Yisrael Katz indicated that, “The IDF holds and will continue to hold all the areas it has cleared and captured [in south Lebanon]. The ground maneuver into Lebanon and the strikes against Hezbollah throughout the country achieved many gains, but the mission has not yet been completed.” (Emphasis added).
DM Israel Katz. Photo by Itzhak Harari / Knesset Archives, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikipedia
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Tomorrow (Tuesday) night, the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran ends. Tonight we as a nation begin two very intense and emotional days but there is no valid indication of what we can expect next.
Consider:
Many of us sensed at this point that fighting would likely begin again. But then, Trump announced that in spite of Iranian violations of the ceasefire – “firing bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom” – he was going to give the regime an opportunity to negotiate peace.
“My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening [today, Monday evening], for Negotiations…We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran…”
Point of fact: It’s not clear at all that Vance and his negotiating team have actually left for Islamabad yet.
Iran is saying there won’t be any negotiations – they do not intend to take part. Tehran considers the demands by the US to be “unreasonable and unrealistic.” Additionally, they are angry because the US is still maintaining a blockade on their ports. What is more, the US fired upon and then seized an Iranian vessel.
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Three days ago, Trump said that “Iran has ‘agreed to everything,’ and will work with the U.S. to remove its enriched uranium…
“’We’ll go down and get it with them, and then we’ll take it. We’ll be getting it together because by that time, we’ll have an agreement and there’s no need for fighting when there’s an agreement. Nice right? That’s better. We would have done it the other way if we had to.’
”The president said the material would then be brought to the U.S.
“’Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States’ he said.”
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“But within a couple of hours, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry released a statement that said in translation, ‘Enriched uranium is as sacred to us as Iranian soil and will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances,’ and went on to say that ‘transferring uranium to the United States has not been an option.’
“The president also told CBS News that Tehran agreed to stop backing proxy terrorist groups, like Hezbollah and Hamas.”
Does he simply make it up as he goes along? Or does he imagine that once he verbalizes an expectation it will automatically come to be?
As much as I believe it is important to relieve the Iranian regime of its uranium, there is a certain relief at this point that it is not likely to happen. That is because of a plan Trump is allegedly considering, according to several sources I have encountered:
The US would consider unfreezing Iranian assets – Iran is seeking a total of $20 billion! – in exchange for their stockpile of enriched uranium.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/17/politics/iran-trump-money-uranium-deal
IF this is true – it may well not be – it would be a nightmare that would undo the achievements of the war by giving the regime the means to stabilize – when now it is crumbling from within – and work to rebuild its munitions stockpile.
Trump has written that no money would be exchanged in a negotiated deal with Iran.
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I ask, as I always do, that you please pray. Pray hard.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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