While Tehran recognizes Washington’s desire to avoid a confrontation, Israel is still waiting for American protection. The conclusion: Israel must prepare for the day after the US president.
by Prof. Eyal Zisser
President Donald Trump speaks with members of the press at the White House, Sept. 15, 2025. Harrison Koeppel / Official White House Photo via Flickr / United States Government Work
Anyone with eyes in their head, and the Iranians have both eyes and a head on their shoulders, understands that US President Donald Trump does not want to resume the war against Iran. Trump has already forgotten why he went to war in the first place.
A reminder: The original goals were to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program and topple the ayatollahs’ regime in Tehran. Now, all Trump wants is another agreement, almost at any price, that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and bring down prices at gas stations across the US. In other words, Trump wants to put the Iranian issue behind him.
In the middle of last month, he did carry out what were ostensibly airstrikes against targets in southern Iran. But these were largely for show, directed at targets with no strategic significance, many of which had already been attacked, some more than once, during the war this past March.
At the time, Trump boasted that Iran’s military power had been destroyed and that it had been left without an air force or navy, not that it truly had much of either before the war. Needless to say, it has since become clear that the Iranians retain military capabilities and do not hesitate to use them against Gulf states or the US forces stationed there.
As the saying goes, “If you want to shoot, shoot.” And if you have no real intention of going to war, it is better not to threaten one. Otherwise, everyone will quickly realize that your threats are empty, and you will lose what little respect and fear you still command in the region.
Trump lives in a reality of his own, one whose connection to events on the ground is purely coincidental. He tells everyone that the Iranians are begging him to sign an agreement with them, when in fact it is Trump and his administration who are signaling distress and desperation to reach a deal that would allow them to leave the Iranian issue behind. He says he will demand that Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in return for the nuclear program he plans to grant the kingdom, while neglecting to mention that the agreement with the Saudis has already been finalized
No less troubling are Trump’s explanations for the frequent, erratic changes in his policies, which sometimes amount to complete 180-degree reversals. As everyone knows, these shifts are the product of his changing moods and even which side of the bed he gets out of in the morning.
One might laugh at Trump’s pronouncements, in which he often says one thing and its opposite in the same sentence, were their ultimate implications not so sad and dangerous.
When people begin treating the US president as a joke, there is certainly cause for concern, particularly for Israel. American support is one of the foundations of Israeli power, and someone in the region may begin taking seriously the almost daily public humiliation Trump inflicts on us.
Trump’s statements that Israel does exactly what he tells it to do, or that if he decides to go to war against Iran, Israel will join him within two minutes, diminish Israel and turn it into a banana republic that obediently echoes its master’s wishes. This is not only insulting but also damaging. The entire region sees and hears what is happening and draws the obvious conclusion: With Trump’s blessing, Israel can and should be pushed around.
All of this leads to one conclusion. Salvation will not come from Trump. Israel must prepare for a situation in which it will be forced to confront the security challenges on its doorstep alone, while also contending with Trump’s attacks and dictates, including his demands that Israel withdraw from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Because Trump does not want a war with Iran, and because even another round of fighting would be intended solely to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, Israel would be making a mistake if it allowed itself to be dragged, almost Pavlovianly, into every American move.
Such moves would not necessarily serve Israel’s interests. They could instead harm and weaken it. After all, another confrontation with Iran that ends, like its predecessors, in one dubious agreement or another would certainly not improve Israel’s position.
Perhaps Israel, too, must understand what the Iranians understood long ago: Trump has an expiration date. Israel must play for time until then and prepare for the day after.
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