Analysis: Trump’s “Good Friendship” With Turkey’s Erdogan | MEMRI

Peloni:  This article provides a deep dive into the antagonism between Trump and Erdogan, as well as Trump’s eerily kind words praising the Turkish president despite the contrasting outlooks which both nations have in the region.

Erdogan stands as a regional threat to stability, and this includes his opposition to both his Arab neighbors, Israel, and America.  While Trump’s rhetoric paints a different picture, the reality is that it was Trump’s own State Dept which blocked the sale of F-35s to Turkey, and in doing so, he made clear his recognition of the threat which would come from expanding Erdogan’s power in the region.  As to his call to have Turkish troops included in the ISF in Gaza, this was never a real point of discussion because of the political impossibility which would come from such a move for Bibi.  Hence, Bibi was never going to agree to any force from or associated with Turkey.

Who is in political and militazry confrontation with Israel, Greece, and Cyprus in an attempt to re-establish the Ottoman Empire and hegemony in the Middle East.

By: Yigal Carmon | MEMRI.org | July 31, 2026

Trump meets Erdogan at the White House. Screengrab via BBC.

At a June 11, 2026 White House press conference, a reporter asked U.S. President Donald Trump to comment on the possibility of tensions arising between Israel and Turkey. Referring to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, President Trump replied that he “is a good friend of mine, and we’ve worked very well together, I like him a lot – I’m not supposed to say that because now the press will say ‘oh, he likes Erdo?an.’ Now he’s a hell of a leader, and a strong person – very strong person… I don’t think that will happen with Turkey, not as long as I’m president, because he respects me and I respect him, but beyond that, we have a good friendship, so you know, we’ll see.”[1]

This was not the first time President Trump has related to his own affinity for President Erdo?an’s “strong” character. Speaking at the summit of world leaders in Egypt on October 13, 2025, Trump lavished praised on Erdo?an for his toughness, the strength of his army, and his ability to be “at the top” of recent conflicts. Trump said: “Another man who has been my friend for a long time, I don’t know what it is I like the tough people better than I like the soft, easy ones, I don’t know what the hell it is, it’s a personality problem, I suspect. But this gentleman from a place called Turkey, has one of the most powerful armies, actually, in the world. It is much more powerful than he even lets known. If you look at some of the recent conflicts, he was at the top of them and he was winning them, and he did win them and he doesn’t want any credit, he doesn’t want anything, he just wants to be left alone. He is a tough cookie but he’s been my friend, and every time I ever needed him he’s been there for me…when NATO has a problem with him, because he is difficult, they call me, and they say ‘would you do us a favor, could you speak to Erdo?an,’ and I do, and he never fails us. He’s amazing.”[2]

The Flawed Logic Behind Trump’s Perception Of His “Friendship” With Erdo?an

Besides his obvious admiration of Erdo?an for his toughness, which is not always in America’s favor, the message behind Trump’s remarks is that Erdo?an was willing and able to wreak havoc in the Middle East and would have done so if not for the “respect” he holds for Trump and his “friendship” with him. Trump says he is fully aware of Turkey’s military might, Erdo?an’s “difficult” personality, and his constant tensions with NATO. But all these do not concern him because, Trump says, so long as Trump is president, Erdo?an will not threaten Israel because he “respects” Trump, who also concluded that Erdo?an “does not want anything, he just wants to be left alone.”

Trump is mistaken on these points. First, Erdo?an’s “friendship” with Trump is only as strong as the least important Turkish interest. As far as Erdo?an is concerned, the moment their “friendship” and Turkey’s interests collide directly, Turkey’s interests will always take priority. 

Second, Erdo?an does not respect Trump – he despises him and scorns him and the American values he represents. Erdo?an may play politics, but his state-controlled media,[3] which no longer the relatively free media from before his period, reflects and represents his views. 

Third, it is not true that all Erdo?an wants is “to be left alone.” He wants many things, such as a nuclear military capability, to turn back the clock on the region to Ottoman-era Turkish hegemony, and to seize Jerusalem. 

The October 2019 Letter: “Don’t Be A Tough Guy, Don’t Be A Fool!”

On October 6, 2019, the White House announced: “Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey by telephone. Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria. The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial ‘Caliphate,’ will no longer be in the immediate area. The United States Government has pressed France, Germany, and other European nations, from which many captured ISIS fighters came, to take them back, but they did not want them and refused. The United States will not hold them for what could be many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer. Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years in the wake of the defeat of the territorial ‘Caliphate’ by the United States.”[4]

The impending Turkish military operation was thus presented as Turkey taking responsibility for a problem – captured Islamic State (ISIS) fighters in Syria – that neither the U.S. nor Europe wanted to deal with nor pay for. In fact, this military operation was a boon for Erdo?an in which he was able to attack Kurdish forces in Syria who for years had supported the U.S. in its fight against ISIS and other global anti-American jihadist organizations and who now lacked the defense offered by the presence of American troops. It was Erdo?an, after all, who beginning in 2014, allowed jihadists from around the world to cross Turkey to join ISIS in Syria.

Three days later, on October 9, Turkey invaded northern Syria for the fifth time in as many years. The same day, Trump sent Erdo?an a letter.[5] While the letter became public when it was leaked later, it is dated October 9. Trump warned Erdo?an: “You don’t want to be responsible for slaughtering thousands of people” and threatened “destroying the Turkish economy” and offered Erdo?an “a good deal.” He also reportedly enclosed a letter from Kurdish military leader, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Mazloum Abdi. Trump concluded: “Don’t let the world down. You can make a great deal… Don’t be a tough guy, don’t be a fool!”[6]

Erdo?an said that he formally rejected the letter by physically returning it himself and that Trump did not react when he did so. On November 14, Erdo?an told journalists on his plane on its way back to Turkey following meeting with Trump in Washington that he had returned the letter and that there “was not a reaction.”[7] The combined air and ground offensive that Erdo?an launched on October 9 killed at least 120 civilians[8] and displaced some 300,000 people.[9] When criticized later by international rescue organizations, Erdo?an threatened to flood Europe with refugees.[10] So much for the “respect” and “friendship” of tough-guy Erdo?an.

Erdo?an Seeks Nuclear Capability, Jerusalem, And Neo-Ottoman Regional Hegemony, Urges Turkic Nations To “Think Beyond Our Borders”

Far from wanting only “to be left alone,” Erdo?an is pursuing regional Turkish hegemony, first by the reviving of the “Grand Turan” that will unify the Turkic-speaking world.[11] Then, by reviving the Ottoman empire, expanding Turkish control into Syria and Africa, and eventually seizing Jerusalem. This project means not only conflict with Israel but with Greece as well.[12]

In a December 2024 address at the TÜBA and TÜB?TAK Ceremony for Prizes in Science, Erdo?an said: “Turkey is much bigger than Turkey. As a nation, we cannot limit our horizon to 782,000 square kilometers… Turkey as a nation cannot escape or hide from this destiny… Those who ask, ‘What is Turkey doing in Libya, Syria, and Somalia?’ may not be able to conceive this mission and vision.”[13]

Addressing an informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), attended by the heads of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and held in the Hungarian capital, Budapest, on May 20-21, 2025, Erdo?an called upon member-states to “think beyond our borders” on issues such as the war in Gaza, and said “We have to stand against Israel’s expansionism and support the territorial integrity of Lebanon and Syria.”[14]

In a March 2024 speech commemorating the Ottoman victory in Gallipoli,[16] Erdo?an developed the concept of Turkey’s “spiritual geography,” which he said stretches “From Syria to Gaza, from Aleppo to Tabriz, from Mosul to Jerusalem.” He said: “Dear nation, this year, on March 18, as we do every year, we celebrated with pride and as a nation the victory at Gallipoli. In the 110th year after our victory at Gallipoli we commemorated once more, with mercy, gratitude, and prayers for [their spiritual] protection, our immortal heroes who made Gallipoli impassable at the cost of their lives. The martyrs, who came from the four corners of our spiritual geography, from Syria to Gaza, from Aleppo to Tabriz, from Mosul to Jerusalem, lie in one another’s arms at Gallipoli.”[17]

The Rhetoric Of Erdo?an And His Close Political Circle Against Israel, Zionism, And Jews 

For Erdo?an’s expansionist vision to materialize, he first needs Israel to be gone, because it is the biggest obstacle to his expansionist neo-Ottoman aspirations. Erdo?an, therefore, is set to confront Israel, as his rhetoric and that of those around him show. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in an interview reported July 11, 2026, that “I think there is no reason to have an open conflict” with Israel.[18] However, this is out of sync what President Erdo?an has been saying over the past several years.

In a November 15, 2023 meeting of his ruling AK Party, Erdo?an addressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the State of Israel. He said: “Now I am addressing Netanyahu. Do you have an atomic bomb or not? Do you have one or not? Explain, if you can. But you cannot. Oh Israel, you have an atomic bomb, a nuclear bomb, and you are threatening [others] with it. We know this. And now the moment of your death is coming. Have as many nuclear bombs as you want. Have whatever you want. You’re a goner.”[19]

In a meeting of the AK Party in the province of Rize in Turkey uploaded to YouTube on July 28, 2024, Erdo?an said: “In the defense industry, our imports and exports [have increased significantly]. But, dear brothers and sisters, let us not be deceived. We should be very strong so that Israel cannot do this to Palestine. Just as we entered [Nagorno] Karabakh, and just as we entered Libya, we will do something similar to them. There is no [reason] not to.”[20]

In a June 27, 2026 meeting held by Turkey’s ruling AK party, Erdo?an said: “The genocidal occupying expansionist ideology called Zionism threatens not only me personally, our party, or our alliance, but everyone. When we struggle against Zionism, we do so not for ourselves personally. We do this for the collective survival of ourselves and of our nation.”[21]

In a speech posted on his X account on June 6, 2026, Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi said that Jerusalem will be liberated just as Damascus, Aleppo, and Nagorno-Karabakh were liberated. He expressed confidence that Jerusalem would eventually return to “our” control and said that this outcome would come to be, in particular, through President Erdo?an’s leadership. Çiftçi said: “As we saw the liberation of Damascus, Aleppo, and [Nagorno-]Karabakh. Allah willing, we will one day see the liberation of Jerusalem…when I was a governor, I had a prayer to Allah – I would say…’My Lord, one day, if it be for only one day, grant me governorship over Jerusalem’… I still believe that Allah will show us those days. He will absolutely show us. I believed this with all my heart, and I continue to believe it. As it was in the past, that area will be ours again. It will again come under our governance and control, Allah willing. Because we are led by a global leader like Recep Tayyip Erdo?an.”[22]

On a January 1, 2026 rally held at Istanbul’s Galata Bridge, the son of President Erdo?an, Bilal Erdo?an, said that Zionism is the Nazism of Israel, and prayed for Allah to “destroy and wreck the bandit Netanyahu.” He said that Israel will be crushed if humanity faces Zionist ideology, and that Israel must pay reparations for its war crimes. He also said that the Turkish nation must maintain its struggle against Israel through boycotts, adding: “Inshallah, we will continue this struggle until Gaza is free, until Jerusalem is free, and until the Al-Aqsa Mosque is free.”[23]

In a March 20, 2026 Eid Al-Fitr event held by the AK Party district office in Gaziosmanpa?a, Turkey’s Former Interior Minister and current Chairman of the Turkish parliament’s Internal Affairs Committee Süleyman Soylu threatened Israel with annihilation. He said: “I want to underline this. I am saying it very clearly from here. We have something to say to Israel, who along with these provocations, is trying to get us involved in this fireball. Maybe it is not aware, but we are its neighbours. I say it very clearly. We share a border with Israel. Maybe it is not aware, and I say it again: We share a border.

“Allah knows that if they try to do anything like the cruelty that they have done to [other] Muslims, I speak from here as a son of this homeland as a person who since his childhood has [seen] martyrdom as a rank of honor… From Hatay to Israel is a total of five hours, and we will give 300,000 or 400,000 martyrs, but there will no longer be a homeland called ‘Israel!’ With Allah’s permission, it will be gone! With Allah’s permission, it will be gone!”[24]

In the weeks following the December 2024 takeover of Damascus by Turkish-backed forces led by Ahmad Al-Shara’a better known as Abu Muhamamd Al-Joulani, Ahmet Yi?it Y?ld?r?m, the leader of Turkey’s “Grey Wolves” (officially Ülkü Ocaklar? – “Idealist Hearths”),[25] an organization that has for years supported the Turkish military on the battlefields of Syria and Azerbaijan, said: “After Damascus is stabilized and secured, Allah willing, we will all see that the conquest of Jerusalem is near.”[26]

On March 5, 2026, Turkish politician and researcher Bekir Atacan, a member of Erdo?an’s AK Party, said in an interview on Al-Mashhad TV (UAE) that the Middle East will be the “graveyard of the Jews and the Americans.” He added that “these games and lies will come to an end” and called U.S. and Israeli forces “traitors,” saying that people have woken up and “will not allow the U.S. and Israel to live on these lands.” Atacan declared that killing them and removing them from the region is permissible.[27]

Turkey’s Striving For Nuclear Military Capability

Turkish media, which Erdo?an’s government tightly controls, has also signaled signal the government’s intention of acquiring nuclear weapons. On February 23, 2026, Turkish journalist ?brahim Karagül published a column in the Turkish pro-government daily Yeni ?afak titled “If You Want To Prevent The Third World War, Get Israel Under Control. If You Want To Prevent A Nuclear Disaster, Get The Jewish Tribe Under Control. A Preemptive Strike On Israel Should Be Considered.” According to Karagül, this “preemptive strike” on Israel should be conducted with nuclear weapons. He wrote: “Turkey should urgently be turned into a nuclear power. A map of siege, of encirclement, should be drawn around Israel… if everything comes to a standstill, the concept of a ‘preemptive strike’ with all of its elements should be directed at Israel. One cannot wait for a country that is clearly prepared to use nuclear weapons and commit horrific acts of destruction against the region to implement its plans…this is clear: Israel and the Jewish Tribe are at war with the human race.”[28]

President Erdo?an himself said in a speech in September 2019: “Some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, and not just one or two. I, however, am not supposed to have missiles with nuclear warheads. I do not accept this… Right next to us, there is Israel, right? With everything [it has], it is a frightening [other countries]. My dear brothers and sisters, we are continuing our work.”[29]

Other media outlets discuss concrete military considerations. GZT.com, which describes itself as Turkey’s largest digital media brand and on whose program Erdo?an himself has appeared,[30] released on June 24, 2025, a video titled “Israel’s Soft Underbelly: What Regions, If Struck, Will Cause Israel To Falter?” The video lists targets in Israel – the Urim, Tel Nof, and Netafim bases – allegedly housing the construction of the Arrow missile defense system, Unit 8200, tank and artillery munitions depots, and “critical elements” like F-15s, special operations teams, and long-range drones. It specifically lists the Sdot Micha, whose existence is not formally acknowledged, as supposedly the site where nuclear warheads are placed on Eriha missiles, saying that “If [Sdot Micha] were struck, Israel’s deterrence could be shaken.”[31]

Turkey may also benefit from the existing nuclear weapons of other countries. On June 16, 2026, Pakistani website TimesOfIslamabad.com reported that Turkey and Pakistan are set to sign a new mutual defense pact under the status of a treaty. This pact will be modelled after the Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Cooperation (SMDA) pact, and will be aimed at “deepening strategic military cooperation” between the two countries. According to Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khwaja Asif, the SMDA between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan extends Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia. The same might also be true now of Turkey, who will come under the umbrella of Pakistan’s 170 nuclear warheads.[32]

Tension Over Erdo?an’s Campaign To Procure The F-35 Supersonic Stealth Strike Fighter

President Donald Trump said recently that he will consider allowing Turkey to procure American F-35 fighter jets, some variants of which are capable of carrying a nuclear bomb.[33]

On July 2, a bi-partisan group of 10 lawmakers sent a letter to Trump saying: “We write today to express deep concern about any effort to sell F-35s to Turkey.”[34] A second letter opposing the sale and signed by 18 democratic lawmakers was sent to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on July 7. The letter reportedly “urged congressional leadership to be prepared to exercise the powers granted under U.S. law should the Trump administration seek to proceed with the sale or transfer of American fighter aircraft to Turkey.”[35] The same day, regarding any possible concerns over the sale of the technology to Turkey, Trump said on the sidelines of a NATO summit hosted in Istanbul: “I have no concerns about anything. I mean, he’s a leader of a country that he’s made a much better country, a much better country, a much more powerful country. I have no concerns about anything having to do with Turkey… I would say the relationship with Turkey is better probably than it’s ever been. It was good in my first four years, but I think it’s probably better than that if that’s possible.”[36] 

Trump also said of the possible procurement deal: “Turkey has been, in many ways, much more loyal than other countries that we think would be loyal. So, it’s something, certainly, we would consider.”[37] The State Department reportedly said in a July 22 letter to Congress that Turkey did not meet the legal requirements to acquire the F-35.[38] On July 27, responding to questions regarding the possible sale, Trump said: “Nobody tells me what we should be selling.”[39]

The F-35 is only one in a range of issues in which Trump has misread Erdo?an’s intentions. In summary, this is the man who president Trump wants to allow to send troops into Gaza in a so-called peace mission. Erdo?an is not interested in being Trump’s friend. His aim is to use Trump to build Turkish power in the region as much as possible until its growth can no longer be checked by the United States, and then to use that very power to become the hegemony in the region. 

*Yigal Carmon is founder and president of MEMRI.