It is hard to grasp how this deal will not be used to raise Iran’s position in the region rather than to limit it in any way.
Peloni
President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” claiming it would soon lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as well as the end of the war. This comes following Trump’s discussions with regional leaders and a separate call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump described the conversation with Netanyahu as having gone “very well,” but reports suggest underlying tension persist regarding the outcomes of the war as judged by the two leaders. This reportedly led Netanyahu to hold an urgent security meeting with top Israeli officials in the wake of the breaking news about the possible end of the war. Israeli sources express significant concerns regarding the emerging deal as it pertains to Iran being allowed to maintain possibly retaining critical elements of its nuclear program and/or ballistic missile capabilities while still gaining sanctions relief. Doing so could significantly strengthening Tehran’s regional influence.
The proposed agreement reportedly does not immediately address Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium or dismantle enrichment sites, both of which are key issues for Israel. Republican lawmakers, including Senators Lindsey Graham and Roger Wicker, voiced their concerns, warning that lenient terms in the deal would only serve to embolden Iran and undermine regional stability. Trump has maintained that military action remains an option if diplomacy fails, and both sides are reviewing the deal which allows for the war to end while detailed negotiations continue over a 30- to 60-day period of time.
The 30- to 60-day negotiation window, as outlined in the proposed U.S.-Iran deal, allows for a phased period intended to finalize a comprehensive agreement following the initial signing of a one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) which is expected to be released on Sunday. During the 30- to 60-day talks, both sides would begin intensive technical negotiations on key issues including the structure of nuclear restrictions, verification mechanisms, sanctions relief sequencing, and maritime coordination in the Strait of Hormuz. The first 30-day phase would focus on establishing implementation timelines and resolving outstanding details, with the possibility of extension up to 60 days if progress is being made. Throughout this period, restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports would be gradually lifted in tandem with early confidence-building measures. However, full sanctions relief and final agreements would remain contingent upon verified compliance with nuclear and maritime commitments, including Iran’s potential commitment to a long-term enrichment moratorium, removal of its enriched uranium stockpiles from the country, and dismantlement of key nuclear facilities.
It seems to me that a deal as limited as this could have been had some time ago, which begs the question as to why Trump waited so long only to accept something so limited in detail and questionable in its implementation that it could be scribes on a single page. This certainly does not bode well for the critical issues of the missile development program, Iran’s proxy forces, and its nuclear program, not to mention the once again ignored issue of the plight of the Iranian people who Trump repeatedly asserted that he had not forgotten…well it would appear that in the most recent weeks they have been relegated to back shelf of diplomatic interest once more, unless we find that some corner of the one page memorandum of understanding to be issued tomorrow might be reserved from a slight comment on the nearly 50yrs of their being abandoned by the West, and most acutely by the US…
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