It is hard to grasp how this deal will not be used to raise Iran’s position in the region rather than to limit it in any way.
Peloni
President Trump announced on Saturday evening that a deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” claiming it would soon lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as well as the end of the war. This comes following Trump’s discussions with regional leaders and a separate call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump described the conversation with Netanyahu as having gone “very well,” but reports suggest underlying tension persist regarding the outcomes of the war as judged by the two leaders. This reportedly led Netanyahu to hold an urgent security meeting with top Israeli officials in the wake of the breaking news about the possible end of the war. Israeli sources express significant concerns regarding the emerging deal as it pertains to Iran being allowed to possibly retaining critical elements of its nuclear program and/or ballistic missile capabilities while still gaining sanctions relief. Doing so could significantly strengthening Tehran’s regional influence.
The proposed agreement reportedly does not immediately address Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium or dismantle enrichment sites, both of which are key issues for Israel. Republican lawmakers, including Senators Lindsey Graham and Roger Wicker, voiced their concerns, warning that lenient terms in the deal would only serve to embolden Iran and undermine regional stability. Trump has maintained that military action remains an option if diplomacy fails, and both sides are reviewing the deal which allows for the war to end while detailed negotiations continue over a 30- to 60-day period of time.
The 30- to 60-day negotiation window, as outlined in the proposed U.S.-Iran deal, allows for a phased period intended to finalize a comprehensive agreement following the initial signing of a one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) which is expected to be released on Sunday. During the 30- to 60-day talks, both sides would begin intensive technical negotiations on key issues including the structure of nuclear restrictions, verification mechanisms, sanctions relief sequencing, and maritime coordination in the Strait of Hormuz. The first 30-day phase would focus on establishing implementation timelines and resolving outstanding details, with the possibility of extension up to 60 days if progress is being made. Throughout this period, restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports would be gradually lifted in tandem with early confidence-building measures. However, full sanctions relief and final agreements would remain contingent upon verified compliance with nuclear and maritime commitments, including Iran’s potential commitment to a long-term enrichment moratorium, removal of its enriched uranium stockpiles from the country, and dismantlement of key nuclear facilities.
So what we have here is basically a deal in which nearly all of the terms are yet to be clarified outside of ending the war while the terms are agreed upon, with the caveat of military force resuming should negotiations break down on any given topic. So, it is less of a deal and more of a framework on which to clarify a deal, which is contingent upon the Strait of Hormuz reopening alongside some confidence building measures which should be understood to be little more than a bribe by the US to Iran to come to the table while the bigger topics are potentially clarified. The best case scenario of this deal being successful leaves the Iranian regime in place, while the worst case scenario leaves the US and Israel resuming the war after some or all of the ships now trapped in the Persian gulf are released.
It seems to me that a deal as limited as this could have been had some time ago as this was what Iran has been offering for some time in recent weeks. This begs the question as to why Trump has now decided to accept an agreement so limited in detail and questionable in its implementation that it will only fill a single page. Reports may prove to be inaccurate, but for what is being reported this does not bode well for the critical issues of the missile development program, Iran’s nuclear program more broadly, and its regional and global proxy forces being divested. What is very clear is that a negotiated settlement leaves the plight of the Iranian people once again being abandoned after Trump repeatedly asserted that he had not forgotten them.
Of course, while such a deal as this has worrying implications for Israel, and acute realities of more of the same for the Iranian people, the survival of the Iranian regime will have a measurable affect on the future generations of Americans regardless of the terms agreed upon with this Armageddonist terrorist regime. Indeed, the future generations of Americans will face the challenge of having to do what Trump failed to do when he came to agree to a deal with the Iranians, ie finishing the job of removing the Iranian threat which remains targeted at America.
Many are describing the deal as shameful, but the reality is that what has been agreed upon has yet to be clarified publicly, and likely still need significant clarification even by those who are read-in to the negotiations. But the deference which Iran will gain from having survived this war, and the reality that this regime still poses a significant threat to Israel, the region, the US and the world, simply begs the question as to how many ships might be skirted thru the Strait of Hormuz before the war resumes to its necessary end of ending the Islamist regime in Iran, once and for all.
Hamas remains. Hezbollah continues its missile and drone attacks. Will the Ayatollah’s be leveraged to persists as well? Is this simply a pause before the resumption of battle, or something more failing despite all the fleetting victories which have been thus far achieved. Time will tell.
Trump responding to reporter:
“Can’t talk about the deal, it’s completely up to me, and if there is news it will only be good news. I don’t close bad deals.”