Peloni: Rabbi Pesach Wolicki dives into the relationship between Saudi Arabia and America, and how this is being manipulated by China, and how it impacts Israel.
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Menu There is no diplomatic solutionIsrael should declare three nos;
no to nuclear Iran, no to two-state solution, no to bi-national state
no to nuclear Iran, no to two-state solution, no to bi-national state
A pity this good analysis of Arab tradition of realpolitik did NOT touch on Turkey which for geo-politics, population and economy and historic rose tinted glasses about itself is thinking how to re-assert its dominance against Iran and other outsiders (Israel inc in its eyes) to the region. Turkey and Saudi are the Sunni Moslem majority and Iran are heretics even if SA etc have to relate with Iran. If the US wishes to retain a base in the region it will indeed be well advised to move to Israel to NOT be embarassed in intra Arab Moslem civil/religious conflict.
Saudi from the start was – is a pure power artificiality: Abdul Azziz ibn S relied on British (India Office) sympathy to assemble SA and then on US against the British similarly to the Tsarist Russians calling in US railway engineers for their first line in the1840’s at the height of British power or Japan accepting US C’dore Perry in 1853 rather than the British who had just beaten China in opium wars. Saudi can behave as they do because their space to people ratio is even vaster then Russia’s despite modern telephones and aircraft. Nevertheless SA is buillt on negativity like the Arab attitude to Israel and that is never enough.
Also now forgotten quietly on purpose: after WW I Britain was sorting out its ME relations (Churchill’s 1921 Cairo Conference) and offering Hussein of Mecca the client kingship of what became his son’s realms of Iraq and Jordan BUT he refused in a huff and AA ibn S threw him out of Hejaz with British Indian connivance. H died in Cyprus(1925). The intra-British London – India disagreements over the ME are a lesson in themselves; probably less likely to occur now because of better phones.
Arab society fights fiercely for local tribe and religious identity as in Lebanon Afghanstan and Iraq and in their ethnic cleansing of Jews after 1948 and of Palestinians after Saddam Hussain’s venture into Kuwait. So far they have not created the nationalist and technocratic social glue of a modern nation state as shown in their poor regular army showing against Israel and indifferent performance against Iraq under the N. Schwarzkopf. Ditto apart from oil when those who emerged from Sykes-Picot or the Franco – Italian moment in N.Africa have so far (to reverse a proverb) made a sow’s ear of their silk purse socio-economic opportunities at the close of the colonial period.
Even when they buy in foreign materiel: per decade – British, Soviet or US with instructors and technicians they have let social traditions and internal power rivalries prevent them mastering it because technicalities depend on professional trust. In this the Iranians let alone the Turks have been a cut above the Arab World – probably because of their historic records and self image among other factors. Under the ayatollahs Iran had to work out things for themselves both in politics and technicalities – and when you do you learn as did the Kemalist Turks.
If the Sunni- Shia Moslem quarrel re-ignites led by Iran and Turkey the Arabs might well be squeezed. Israel will be better off with US bases even if Turkey and or Iran continue to be hostile to Israel. What willl be interesting is wha thappens to Mslems in the US if they put their religious affiliations before their US allegiance. What is already clear is tha the anti – Jewish sentiment stoked up in the name of “Fakestine” has already increased and will increase aliyah from Europe and the Americas.
Saudi performance has remained the same for a long time now. They always hedge to get the best possible deal on one hand, but because they are floating on hard cash, they also want the benefit of all those riches. The other thing they do is to ensure that they don’t send their principle people to negotiate, Russian style. In any deal that comes along, they can always reach some agreement but then claim they have to get permission to actually sign the deal but since they are not the top cat, their signature is not really relevant. I assume Donald knows about this tactic.