Avi Abelow | Meta | July 17, 2026
The war against Iran has entered a fascinating new stage, and this time, the United States is leading the escalation.
As of now, the days of worrying about President Trump’s memorandum of understanding with Iran, promoted by the Vance-Witkoff wing of his administration, appear to be behind us.
That deeply flawed arrangement was never going to last.
It attempted to create diplomatic stability with an evil jihadi regime that continues to promise, out loud, to destroy America and assassinate President Trump, and has repeatedly demonstrated that it views agreements not as commitments, but as temporary tactical tools.
Iran continued attacking commercial shipping, attempting to dictate control over the Strait of Hormuz and threatening American interests throughout the region.
Predictably, Vance’s deal collapsed, quickly.
And now the United States is no longer limiting itself to symbolic retaliation or isolated military targets. It has begun striking infrastructure that enables the Iranian regime to move weapons, sustain its naval forces and threaten international shipping.
American strikes have targeted Iranian air-defense systems, coastal radar installations, missile and drone sites, logistics centers, naval vessels and facilities around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. The United States has also struck Iranshahr Airport and multiple bridges in southern Iran, including transportation links around Bandar Abbas intended to connect Iran’s principal southern port and naval hub with the country’s interior.
The United States reportedly struck several bridges in and around Bandar Abbas specifically to disrupt the regime’s military supply routes. Bandar Abbas is not merely another Iranian city. It is a central naval and logistical hub used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and is strategically connected to Iran’s efforts to dominate the Strait of Hormuz.
The Americans have also struck a surveillance tower at the strategic port of Chabahar, submarine and ship-maintenance facilities, coastal defenses and other maritime assets. A renewed American naval blockade is simultaneously attempting to isolate Iranian ports and weaken the regime’s ability to exploit regional trade and energy routes.
This is no longer only about destroying individual missile launchers.
It is about degrading the physical network that allows the Iranian regime to wage war.
But perhaps the most interesting development is not where Iran has been attacked.
It is where Iran has chosen to retaliate.
During this latest round, Iran has fired missiles and drones toward American bases and facilities located in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar, with additional Iranian activity reported in northern Iraq. It has also attacked commercial vessels connected to the United Arab Emirates in the Strait of Hormuz.
Think about that.
The Islamic Republic presents itself as the leader of the Muslim struggle against Israel.
Yet during these past several nights, it has launched attacks into neighboring Muslim countries, including Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, while refraining from firing missiles at Israel.
That can change at any moment. Nobody should assume that Israel is permanently outside Iran’s target list. Iran began the war against Israel with direct attacks on Israeli population centers and the regime remains openly committed to Israel’s destruction.
But for the moment, its restraint is a fascinating strategic development.
Why would Iran strike Muslim countries around it but avoid striking Israel right now? Whereas in all previous rounds Iran attacked Israel?
One possible explanation is deterrence.
Iran may understand exactly how Israel would respond.
The regime has experienced the consequences of underestimating Israel’s intelligence penetration, air power, military reach and political resolve. It has watched Israel eliminate senior commanders, destroy strategic capabilities and strike deeply inside Iranian territory, even before the U.S. joined the war.
Iran may calculate that launching another direct missile barrage at Israel would provide Netanyahu with both the justification and the opportunity to unleash an even more devastating response.
That possibility represents an enormous achievement for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
For years, Netanyahu was mocked for identifying Iran as the central strategic threat to Israel and the free world. He was accused of exaggeration, warmongering and damaging Israel’s relationship with Washington.
Yet under his leadership, Israel built the military, intelligence and diplomatic foundations necessary to confront the Iranian regime when the moment arrived.
Israel demonstrated that Iran could be penetrated.
Israel demonstrated that its leadership could be reached.
Israel demonstrated that its missile, nuclear and military infrastructure was not untouchable.
And Israel demonstrated that the regime would pay an extraordinary price for attacking the Jewish state.
Netanyahu’s handling of this war has not been limited to military decisions. It has also required navigating complicated diplomacy, even with the most supportive U.S. administration in history, the Trump administration.
There were voices and power centers within that administration that appeared willing to sacrifice core Israeli security concerns for the illusion of an agreement with the Shia jihadi regime in Tehran.
The memorandum of understanding was the clearest example.
It seemingly gave Iran diplomatic and economic breathing room without permanently eliminating its nuclear program, ballistic-missile capabilities or regional terror infrastructure. It also risked creating a framework in which Iran could continue threatening Israel through proxies while claiming adherence to an agreement with Washington.
Many people were deeply concerned.
Some argued that Netanyahu should publicly confront Trump, openly condemn the arrangement and risk a major rupture with Israel’s most important ally.
Netanyahu chose another course.
He voiced Israel’s security requirements but did not turn the disagreement into a public war with the president. He allowed the Iranian regime itself to expose the agreement’s weakness.
And that is precisely what happened.
Iran could not restrain itself.
It continued threatening shipping, challenging American power and trying to dominate the Strait of Hormuz. The memorandum collapsed under the weight of Iran’s own behavior.
Trump declared the ceasefire over, and called the Iranians crazy. American forces resumed major strikes. The Vance-Witkoff diplomatic theory collided with the reality of the jihadist Iranian regime.
Netanyahu did not need to destroy the agreement publicly.
Iran destroyed it for him.
That does not mean the danger is over. It does not mean the Trump administration will never return to negotiations.
Trump continues to signal that he remains willing to make a deal if Iran accepts American demands.
Nor does it mean that the current American campaign guarantees the fall of the regime or the permanent elimination of its nuclear, missile programs or terror support worldwide.
But the strategic picture is dramatically better than it was when the memorandum was announced.
The United States is now attacking Iranian military logistics, transportation infrastructure, ports, bridges, missile sites, coastal defenses and naval assets.
Iran is retaliating against Muslim states hosting American forces, while, at least for the moment, hesitating to attack Israel.
That hesitation matters.
It suggests that Israel has restored something that decades of diplomatic agreements failed to create:
Fear.
Fear of Israeli intelligence.
Fear of Israeli air power.
Fear of Israeli resolve.
Fear of what Netanyahu may authorize next.
The jihadist Middle East does not respect weakness, hesitation, talks or diplomatic fantasies. Those all highlight Western weakness and are invitations for jihadi aggression.
The jihadi Muslim Middle East only respects strength.
The current moment is still fluid. Iran could attack Israel tonight. The United States could reverse course tomorrow. Another memorandum or ceasefire could once again be proposed.
But as of today, the agreement that worried so many of us has collapsed, America is striking the Iranian regime’s strategic infrastructure, and Iran appears more willing to fire missiles at its Muslim neighbors than to risk another direct confrontation with Israel.
That is not an accident.
It is the product of deterrence built through Netanyahu’s brilliant leadership using Israeli military power, strategic patience and an understanding of the Iranian threat to humanity long before much of the world was willing to acknowledge it.
Strengthen your faith. Strengthen your support for Netanyahu.
Yes, there are issues on Israel’s domestic political front that can be frustrating. I share some of those frustrations. But leadership is ultimately measured by the biggest challenges facing a nation, and Netanyahu has consistently demonstrated a strategic understanding and determination in confronting Israel’s jihadist enemies that, none of the realistic alternatives on the center-left have shown.
Recent statements by Gadi Eisenkot, the potential replacement for Netanyahu, including his comparison yesterday of an Israeli Arab affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood to an Arab Israeli who proudly supports Israel and serves in the IDF, only reinforced how fundamentally flawed and dangerous their understanding of the threat facing our country is.
Israel cannot afford leaders who misread the ideological jihadi nature of the enemies we face or who project hesitation at a time when clarity and resolve are essential.
Anyone choosing one of the parties on the center-left that fail to recognize or adequately confront the jihadist threat we are up against, including from Arab Muslim Israeli citizens, will weaken Israel’s deterrence and security.
Among the realistic candidates for prime minister, Netanyahu remains the only leader with the experience, strategic vision, diplomatic skill, and resolve necessary to protect Israel through this historic period.
But above all, remember this:
Governments matter. Leaders matter. Elections matter.
Yet they are never the ultimate source of our security.
God alone is.
Whoever wins the next election, our ultimate trust must never rest in any politician. It must always rest in Hashem, who guides history and remains the true Protector of Israel.
Am Yisrael Chai!!!
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