From Israel: It’s Not Over Yet, Folks!

PELONI:  As promised before the election, Arlene Kushner offers her insights on the Haredi community, their serving in the army, and the political embroglio which has kept the problematic nature of this topic from being resolved long ago.

Arlene Kushner | October 28, 2026

Hasmonean Brigade. Screengrab via Youtube.

This is where we are, and where we must go:

Because of the way in which we vote, it is necessary to count ballots by hand. No speedy electronic calculations. Paper ballot slips – which are placed in sealed envelopes – are utilized. With close to 40 parties running, it would be impossible to incorporate them all on an electronic voting machine board in any event. But there are other reasons for utilizing this low-tech method of voting. It is immune to cyberattacks and provides a physical record so that a recount is always possible.

The majority of those ballots were counted over-night, Tuesday night, but counting is still going on as I write late Wednesday afternoon.

Additional ballots in special categories, such as the military, will first be counted through the night, Wednesday. Final tallies will be announced on Friday, with the official count published next Wednesday, November 4. Not infrequently, adjustments in the counts are made. There are, for example, agreements between some parties with regard to sharing of surplus votes.

There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and a majority of 61 seats is necessary for establishment of a government. Never in Israel’s history has one party secured 61 seats in an election; every government has been a coalition of parties. The process for securing a coalition is set in place by law.

The president, Yitzhak Herzog, is responsible for designating the head of one party to form a coalition – or, more accurately, to attempt to do so. That party head, if successful, becomes the new prime minister.

It is not necessarily the case that Herzog will select the head of the party that has secured the most mandates; just as important is determining which party head would best be able to draw support from other parties. He will soon meet with the heads of all parties to learn of their preferences. The final decision is his, but those preferences provide him with a sense of how matters might play out.

Once the president selects the person to be charged with forming a coalition, the difficult work begins. This individual will meet with the head of each party that he would choose to bring into his coalition – or that he perceives as important for making a coalition possible.

Negotiations can be intense. If a unity government is to be established, there is the matter of which party head becomes prime minister first, and which roles each party fills.

A time period of 28 days will be allocated for the negotiations to take place. If a coalition is established, Israel will have a government.

If this has not happened, the president may grant the individual working on this process an additional 14 days. If efforts remain unsuccessful, he may turn to a second party head, who will then have 28 days in which to establish a coalition. If that second attempt also fails, then the president may declare the entire effort a failure and call for new elections, which would take place within 90 days. This is not a happy situation for the nation but has happened. (I believe if the situation appears problematic, the president can declare the process a failure even sooner.)

All of this is weeks away, and now we can only follow the process as it unfolds.

After 10 PM last night, exit polls were released by channels 12, 13, and 14. With their significant variations, they provide only broad guidance as to what we might expect in the final electoral tallies. And we must remember that the votes of soldiers and diplomats are not accounted for in these polls.

Yet there are matters worthy of note here:

In all the polls, Likud was predicted as having more mandates than Eisenkot’s Yashar. This should put an end to the “anybody but Bibi” campaign, as the electorate was not buying it. But I suspect that it will not.

There was no clear electoral winner: None of the polls predicted that the right-wing bloc would achieve the necessary 61 mandates, although Channel 14 gave this bloc 60 mandates. In the other two polls, the Eisenkot bloc, which also fell short of 61, was seen as having two or three more mandates than the Likud bloc.

The turn-out at the polls was exceedingly high and perhaps most astonishing was the major turnout of the Arabs.

It does not seem that a single one of the new parties that had been promoted with great fanfare, promising reforms and new blood, has passed the threshold. This might change in one instance or the other, but as it is I find it a sad situation. So many wasted votes. Had there been less exaggerated self-assurance, they might have withdrawn or joined together for purposes of passing the threshold.

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Here then, as promised, I look at the issue of Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) serving in the army. As I indicated in my last post, I do not see this as a black and white issue, which is how many persist in framing it. What is more, it is a situation very much in flux. What I offer here is an overview, with the addition of some of my thoughts on the matter.

The practice of exempting Haredim, who espouse serious religious study as equivalent to military service, goes back to Ben Gurion in 1948. But then he was looking at roughly 400 Haredi students and did not see exempting them as a matter of major consequence.

Today the circumstances are vastly different; there are tens of thousands of Haredim exempted, while the situation for the country has shifted. The fighting we have been engaged in since October 7 has put a strain on our armed forces, with some IDF soldiers serving multiple terms of miluim (reserve duty), which can cause resentment when large numbers of Haredim, who could relieve them, are not serving. Worse still, families of soldiers who have been killed demand that Haredim share the risk of fighting.

There have been laws passed with regard to this situation, and rulings by the Court, none of which has brought resolution. But there is also a major political factor. It has happened time and again that in an election the right-wing bloc has insufficient mandates to form a coalition without including the two Haredi parties – Shas and UTJ (United Torah Judaism).

There are competing parties who claim, while campaigning, that they would never include the Haredi parties, and this becomes a key focus for some in voting. But we do not know how they would proceed if they needed to supplement their numbers and were faced with only the alternatives of adding the Haredi parties or Arab parties.

When they agree to sit in a government, the Haredi parties make considerable demands regarding their young men not being required to serve.

They would have it that none of their boys should serve. But those angry about the failure of Haredim to serve demand that all of their young men should serve.

Neither position is productive or realistic.

The argument that is presented by the Haredim for why their boys should not serve – because their study of religious texts is holy, and sufficient unto itself as a substitute for army service – does not tell the entire story. The Haredi community (communities, as there are many groups) is exceedingly insular. They lead a lifestyle with stringent demands, and parents are concerned about outside influences that dilute that lifestyle or draw their young men away. Thus there is often great anxiety about sending their boys to the army: when they return they will not be the same. They will have been lost to their way of life, and that is the primary fear.

Rabbi Karmi Gross describes the situation somewhat differently:
“Charedim may care deeply about their fellow Israelis, but many do not see themselves as Israelis. Even though they live in the country and directly benefit from the sacrifices of others, they have traditionally viewed themselves as culturally distinct from the modern State of Israel. They may see themselves first and foremost as members of Brisk, Satmar, Belz, or another Charedi community who happen to reside in Israel.”

https://www.thejc.com/opinion/the-orthodox-will-not-only-join-the-idf-in-large-numbers-they-will-influence-it

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The rabbi says this situation can be productively addressed, and we are seeing signs that this is so. But it is regrettable that these issues were not addressed properly years ago, before the situation reached a crisis.

Over the years, some small number of Haredi boys did serve, and they often did so without the sanction of their communities or their own families. There were stories of ultra-Orthodox soldiers who were careful to change out of their uniforms before going home so the neighbors would not know they were serving, and stories of parents who disowned them, so that the army treated them as lone soldiers.

Today the situation is changing. There are young Haredi men in growing numbers who believe they should serve, and many who do so with their parents’ blessings.

Rabbi Gross, whom I cite above, is part of that change: he has established something that would have been thought impossible not long ago – an Haredi Hesder Yeshiva. A Hesder Yeshiva combines religious study and army service; until recently students in these yeshivot have all been Dati Leumi, Religious Nationalist.

Another key sign of that change is the new political party that has emerged: the Haredi Public Party, headed by Moti Leitner, Deputy Mayor of Beit Shemesh. Leitner served in the IDF and advocates doing so.

This party did not pass the threshold – it was not anticipated that it would. But its very presence and the message it is delivering is a sign of a new attitude.

Also of great significance is the fact that the IDF has Haredi units. Netzah Yehuda, often referred to as Nahal Haredi, was first established in 1999. The Hasmonean Brigade, which operates as a battalion-level combat team, was founded more recently. A year ago it was already operating in Gaza.

The Hasmonean Brigade is the more stringent in terms of what it offers Haredi soldiers with regard to religious observance – presence of rabbis, high level kashrut, time for study when there is no on-going combat, etc.

And here we come to a problem of considerable sensitivity. A solid percentage of IDF officers are secular. While assurances are provided to the Haredi young men who join regarding the level of observance of their unit, these officers are not always diligent in assuring that the promises are fully respected. This may be a result, very simply, of these officers seeing the observance in question as a matter of small or no consequence. Or it may be more. But both the young men who join and their families must be confident that all strictures will be honored. The Hasmonean Brigade was established with this situation in mind.

This is a reflection of the nature of Israel at the heart of its society. And that is beyond the scope of my discussion here. I will simply say that Israel is changing, growing more religious – which fact I celebrate.

To say that no Haredi young men should serve because they are meant to study is not a tenable position. Many of these young men do NOT study in yeshivot all day; that intensity of study is not for them. And yet, they expect to be exempted from army service. This is simply not acceptable. What is more, I deplore the demonstrations of thousands of Haredim, who deliberately seek to disrupt the larger population with maneuvers such as blocking traffic.

At the same time, I see it as untenable that every single Haredi young man must serve or be punished. An exemption for Torah scholars who are serious about their learning should be possible. And I see as exceedingly foolish and counterproductive – if not simply impossible – calls for the arrest of tens of thousands of Haredi young men. I mention here as an aside that fact that there are also draft dodgers from within the secular community, and no one seems to be concerned about them.

Patience and diligence in addressing this situation are called for. We are headed in the right direction.

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Please, pray – pray hard!! – for the safety of Israel and for election results that will bring us blessings.

©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.

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