PELONI: Unless the Double Envelop votes radically change where things stand currently, it would appear that the Left have as many votes as the Right, plus they have the added advantage of holding the power of the High Court as an ace only they can play. More than this the Left have the support of the Arabs, yet this would hinge on the war with Iran not reigniting, which signals the only path to victory which Netanyahu might have — leveraging Netanyahu’s call for the formation of a United Jewish Block so as to crack the strength otherwise held in a Left Wing-UTJ coalition with Arab support. Yossi Baum explains below.
Yossi Baum | X | October 28, 2026
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The right is unfortunately not focused and is completely failing to read the political map. And here’s why:
1. Additional elections will not help. The Arab public has added 5 seats that did not previously exist in the State of Israel, and there is no way to reverse this. In other words, the right is not going to have 61 seats under any circumstances in the coming years, whether we like it or not.
2. United Torah Judaism is now the kingmaker between the blocs. The bloc it joins will have about 55 seats, while the other bloc will have about 49, give or take. Again, whether we like it or not. This is the reality.
3. Therefore, there are only two options: either a unity government or a minority government of the left and the Haredim. In a unity government, the Haredim will almost certainly not be included.
4. It is clear to the Haredim (United Torah Judaism; I don’t see how Deri could make such a move now) that if they join the left, they will get an improved conscription law, with the approval of the High Court of Justice. This is as clearly on the table as it could possibly be (just as it was already clear beforehand to anyone with their eyes open). By contrast, if the Haredim do not join, they will be outside a unity government. As we have already said, there is no third option.
5. In such a situation, the left will not need an Arab vote in favor of forming the government, and it will even claim that it is not “relying on them,” since the Arabs will supposedly have no choice but to accept the establishment of a left-wing government as an act of divine decree. Between us, there is no real scenario in which the Arabs vote against the formation of a left-wing government; everything else is just arm-twisting in the negotiations.
6. This does not mean that arrangements will not be made with the Arabs behind the scenes, but at least all the partners will be able to roll their eyes.
7. Going forward, in committees and so on, everyone is in any case in contact with the Arabs. That was the case until now, and that is how it will continue. The Arabs will also receive concessions “above the table,” but at least, outwardly, these will not be security-related.
8. The bottom line is that this is the option that best serves the interests of all those involved. Therefore, I think this is the main option that will be on the table. Let us recall that Rabbi Lando has already spoken in the clearest possible terms about dismantling the bloc.
9. Important: I am not saying that this is what will happen. There will be enough attempts to make sure it does not happen. I also do not know whether it will happen in this form or in a slightly different one, but I think this is the main direction, again—whether we like it or not. It is unpleasant to be a prophet of doom, but we need to look reality straight in the eye.
This is essentially the exact fulfillment of what was written here (with the changes necessitated by the unexpected Arab vote):
The Right was frothing yesterday (and rightly so) over Eisenkot’s reckless statement to the heads of the security establishment not to listen to Netanyahu.
But it’s crucial to understand that everything will rise or fall on this: meaning the only way (likely) for Netanyahu to prevent the establishment of a left-wing government is to go to war with Iran. If there is a war, and the regime in Iran falls – all the Iranian-Qatari-Turkish money that flowed to the Arab parties to fund the increase in Arab voter turnout – will evaporate (check how much money moved through crypto in Turkey last night).
This is the big fear on the Left, and it’s precisely this “leak” that Eisenkot sought to prevent. And he will do everything in his power to prevent a war right now.
How will this really end? Will Trump succeed in bending Zamir? We’ll wait and see.
https://x.com/YOSSIBAUM/status/2115480036895576191
https://x.com/YOSSIBAUM/status/2115450115527700945
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