Ahmad Vahidi – Supreme Leader of Iran

Mariam Gregorio 

The Civilian Government Has Lost Control

President Pezeshkian did not authorise the missile and drone strikes on the UAE, only learning about them after the fact. The IRGC is conducting military junta operations with total impunity. Iran is no longer a regime. It is a military junta commanded by an unhinged man. Sources familiar with Tehran’s deliberations report that Pezeshkian described the IRGC’s actions as “completely irresponsible,” called their approach to regional escalation “madness,” and warned of “potentially irreversible consequences.” A sitting president only uses this language about his own military when the relationship has completely broken down.

Foreign Minister Araghchi has been acting as an aide to Ahmad Vahidi, not as a cabinet minister implementing government policy. He has been coordinating nuclear negotiations directly with the IRGC without keeping the president informed. The military has its own parallel foreign policy apparatus operating entirely outside civilian oversight.

The President Cannot Reach the Supreme Leader – Pezeshkian has requested an urgent meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei to press for an immediate halt to IRGC attacks on Gulf states and argue that a narrow window remains to salvage the ceasefire through diplomatic action. The president of Iran should never have to request a meeting with the head of state. Vahidi cannot approve such a meeting. Mojtaba is either dead or so incapacitated that he cannot meet. Vahidi cannot even produce a short 30-second video of Mojtaba.

When a political delegation went to Islamabad for talks, two senior IRGC officials, Vahidi and Abdollahi, did not allow them to provide answers to the Americans. The delegation had no authority to finalise any deal. The IRGC is actively undermining the civilian government’s diplomatic efforts. They do not want to end the war.

One observer quoted in the coverage put it bluntly: “The president being angry is irrelevant if he doesn’t command the IRGC.” Pezeshkian has reportedly warned that continued unilateral attacks will trigger heavy US retaliation against critical energy and economic infrastructure, leading to widespread destruction and an irreversible collapse in livelihoods. Vahidi is ignoring him.

Why Negotiations Are Impossible – How can Trump negotiate with a regime that has absolutely no control over its own military? Any deal signed by the civilian government is worthless. The IRGC has total control of Iran with no visible supreme leader. Vahidi is the supreme leader, and he has made the president irrelevant. Vahidi is making serious miscalculations. The risk of a catastrophic error is very high. The IRGC is likely to launch a strike that triggers the full-scale war Pezeshkian is desperately trying to avoid.

The civilian government wants a deal because it understands the country cannot survive a prolonged war. Vahidi does not care. President Pezeshkian is publicly, through leaks, branding the IRGC’s actions as “madness” and “completely irresponsible.” He is begging for a meeting with a Supreme Leader who is almost certainly dead or incapacitated. He is warning that the country cannot withstand a new full-scale war.

The civilian government is not just sidelined. It is being totally ignored. This is a shattered regime, controlled by a military dictatorship. In desperation, Pezeshkian requested an urgent meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei to press for an immediate halt to IRGC attacks and signal to international mediators Tehran’s readiness to return to negotiations.

The Phantom Supreme Leader- Vahidi is cornered. Mojtaba is either dead, in a coma, or so severely incapacitated that he is non-functional and cannot meet anyone. There is no other plausible reason for Vahidi to block access to him. The president cannot reach the head of state. The IRGC has the guns and the weapons. The Iranian regime is so fractured and totally dysfunctional that it can no longer be described as a regime.

Vahidi Is Delusional – Vahidi is not stupid. He knows Iran is losing the war. He knows the economy is collapsing. He knows the people are starving. He knows the IRGC is fractured. He knows Mojtaba is dead. But he cannot admit any of this. Admitting defeat would expose his deception and destroy what remains of his authority. Vahidi has created an alternate reality: “Iran is winning.” “The strait is closed.” “No ships have crossed.” “The US is lying.” This is not a strategy. It is self-deception as a survival mechanism. He is starting to believe his own lies. Vahidi is the definition of delusional.

The regime is built on velayat-e faqih, the rule of the supreme jurisprudent. The supreme leader is supposed to be the closest human to God on earth. He is supposed to guide the nation with divine wisdom. Vahidi is toying with this edict. Mojtaba Khamenei is either dead, in a coma, or so horrifically injured that he could not have obtained his consent for any decision Vahidi has made in his name. 

This is why Vahidi cannot produce him, cannot produce a 30-second video, cannot produce a live audio recording. He cannot even produce a photograph that is not AI-manipulated. This has nothing to do with “security.” He simply cannot show his own government anything to corroborate his assertion that Mojtaba is signing off on all these decisions. His position is not credible by any measure. His fiction is collapsing, with more analysts asking whether Mojtaba is alive.

What will Iran do? Desecrate Khamenei or Punish Vahidi – The most important questions are:
What will the government, the clerics, and the IRGC do to Vahidi when the truth comes to light?
Vahidi cannot hide Mojtaba for eternity. The day will come when he must produce him.

And what of Ali Khamenei? He has been dead since the 28 February strike. Why has he not been buried? Is the former Supreme Leader of Iran not worthy of a dignified, Shia-compliant burial?