Analysis: From assassinations to ground offensives

By YAAKOV LAPPIN

In any IDF response, Israel would have to take into account the threat of long-range rocket attacks on greater Tel Aviv from Gaza.

The IDF probably has a broad range of options to choose from if it wishes to escalate its response to ongoing Palestinian rocket fire on southern Israel.

As of now, the military has limited its response to air strikes on rocket-launching cells after they have been identified on the ground and are preparing to fire projectiles, or after they have fired the rockets and given their positions away.

Air strikes could target figures higher up in the chain of command within Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Resistance Committees and other terror groups. Rather than wait for rockets to be fired, targeted assassinations of these commanders could be employed. This would place the commanders of the terror factions under pressure, and would result in them investing energy in seeking cover for themselves, leaving them little or no time to fire rockets at Israel.

Additionally, the air force could strike figures even higher up, such as Hamas’s military commander, Ahmed Jabari, and his counterpart in Islamic Jihad.

For years, the IDF’s Southern Command has built up a list of hundreds of targets in Gaza.

These targets may include official Hamas buildings and regime properties, such as government offices and nerve centers. These too could become targets in a stepped-up IDF response.

The next stage could involve a limited ground offensive into Gaza – a scenario for which the IDF has been training itself for years.

In Operation Cast Lead, Hamas was surprised by Israel’s limited ground offensive, and Hamas fighters dispersed in the face of the advancing military. This time around, Hamas and associated factions are likely to be far more ready for a ground offensive, and the IDF will have to face bombladen tunnels, booby-trapped buildings, snipers and underground command centers.

The most drastic step would involve a wide-scale ground offensive, which could topple the Hamas regime and see IDF soldiers reach deep into Gaza City, where house-to-house fighting and intense urban combat would ensue.

Such an offensive would place soldiers at the greatest risk, and could have major regional repercussions – including the jeopardizing of the peace treaty with Egypt.

In any stepped-up IDF response, Israel would have to take into account the threat of long-range rocket attacks on greater Tel Aviv from Gaza.

Such a development would, however, likely prompt an even harsher military reply. •

November 13, 2012 | 28 Comments »

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28 Comments / 28 Comments

  1. The hell with a few individual assassinations, and why waste Israeli lives in a ground invasion. Israel should let it’s air force bomb those damn Ishmaelites in Gaza into the Stone Age.

  2. catarin Said:

    Hamas is mad because, after they fired rockets into Israel, Israel retaliated and killed one of their militant leaders.

    Actually Hamas often fires rockets and doesn’t get their leaders killed. Perhaps they are mad becuase GOI isn’t following the past behavior patterns to which Hamas has been accustomed.
    catarin Said:

    Because each time Hamas fires rockets into Israel, Israel will hammer back.

    If Israel had been responding in a 100 to one reacton perhaps Hamas would have learned long ago. The current situation is the result of the enemy being able to rely on Israeli restraint and proportionate response. Israel has been predictable in its very limited responses. It will be interesting to see where this really goes. Will they wipe out Hamas or will they retain the status quo. I believe that they will retain Hamas because Hams furthers the longer term goals of the GOI. The existence of Hamas delays any peace deals(when was the last time anybody heard of a corridor connecting gaza and the west bank). Now all they have to figure out is how to get the west bank trouble makers into gaza or one of the other surrounding entities. War provides opportunities, that if seized, the picture can be changed.
    catarin Said:

    This is exactly what evil Muslim leaders hope will happen. They want stupid people who will blindly follow religious edicts….It’s okay with them if millions..are killed, as long as it isn’t them.

    I think you have hit the nail on the head; just change the words “hope will” to “make” and you have what binds the movers and shakers together. After all, this is what has been happening and what is likely to continue to happen. The “evil muslim leaders” have hit upon a franchise success that many others want to buy.

  3. Catarin is a Muslim??? If so, why is Catarin haunting a Jewish blog? Muslims aren’t allowe to have Jewish friends. Or perhaps I read that in the “corrupted Quran”…

  4. Forgive my obtuseness, but what is “a corrupted Quran”? You mean there is, somewhere in this world, a good Quran? Say it isn’t so. Please.

  5. I’m listening to the news this morning. Hamas is mad because, after they fired rockets into Israel, Israel retaliated and killed one of their militant leaders. Well, duh Gazans. If they don’t want their leaders killed, don’t fire rockets into Israel. Hamas leaders are taking advantage of some Muslims’ inability to understand cause and effect. I believe this is a trait of Muslims that dates back centuries. They pretend to be dumb, thinking their militant forces will back up their stupidity. Why not? It’s worked in the past. But not any more.

    Because each time Hamas fires rockets into Israel, Israel will hammer back. If Muslims refuse to read the history of the Middle East and refuse to accept that Muslims are the invaders of Israel, and Egypt too, then Muslims will suffer the consequences. Shame on the Emir of Qatar for not acknowledging the true history of Israel. He, with a country filled with universities, refuses to accept history and is dumb as a bump on a log. This is exactly what evil Muslim leaders hope will happen. They want stupid people who will blindly follow religious edicts from a corrupted Quran. It’s okay with them if millions of Muslim people are killed, as long as it isn’t them.

    Many Americans will not sit still as Muslims ravage our Holy Land. I read that some Jewish actors are itching to fight for freedom and democracy if the war against Hamas escalates. The U.S. government has a wallop waiting for anyone who tries to destroy the Jews and our Holy Land. Believe it.

    I moved. It was hell.

  6. Target assassination!!!! Gaza from day one has been at war with IL.
    Y Lippin is fueling anti Israel feelings all over the world.
    Shame on him.

  7. @ Bernard Ross:
    Bernard Ross Said:

    This prompted me to wonder if Egypt is looking for the pretext to end camp david treaty and send their impossible to feed muslim cannon fodder to the Sinai.

    Bernard, i don’t think Morsi would want to risk a humiliating defeat by the Israelis.

    He has just recently been enjoying the nectar of publicity and power, and i predict he would do anything to prolong his ego gratification – at least for the time being and the foreseeable future.

    Fighting Israel could take all this away from him.

  8. “…condemnation of the Israeli strikes immediately emanated from an egyptian religious leader”

    No surprise there. They don’t need an Israeli strike to condemn Israel. For Muslims, anti-Jewish/anti-Israel hatred is primarily congenital, and this effect as a direct result of Islam’s teachings. “A crooked tree casts a crooked shadow.”

    I can’t wait to see Hamas get their heads kicked in. “An angry countenance turns away a back-biting tongue.” F##k Egypt.

  9. as Hamas appeared to be provoking a response it will be interesting to see why. I notice that condemnation of the Israeli strikes immediately emanated from an egyptian religious leader. This prompted me to wonder if Egypt is looking for the pretext to end camp david treaty and send their impossible to feed muslim cannon fodder to the Sinai.

  10. yamit82 Said:

    Hamas’s armed wing warns assassination of top activist has ‘opened the gates of hell’

    Now, that’s a good thing.

    We wouldn’t want the Hamastinians to feel crowded at the entrance when the IDF sends them there, do we?

  11. @ Shy Guy:

    Report: Terrorist mastermind’s Son Also Eliminated

    Initial reports indicate that not only was terrorist mastermind Ahmed Jabari eliminated, but his son as well. The two were traveling in a car in Gaza City when Israel Defense Forces engaged in a pinpoint surgical strike to eliminate them. The 52-year-old Jabari was behind countless rocket attacks on Israeli civilians as well as the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit.

    Two fer!! 🙂

  12. @ Canadian Otter:
    Canadian Otter Said:

    yamit82:
    WE’RE DOOMED!

    Looks that way and I don’t need good Professor Crabtree to explain it to me. There is enough empirical evidence all round us and every where I look.

    This is a generation of idiot savants , most are tech savvy but illiterate and really quite stupid.

  13. @ yamit82:
    WE’RE DOOMED!

    “Human intelligence peaked several thousand years ago and from then on there has been a slow decline in our intellectual and emotional abilities, says Professor Crabtree, a leading geneticist, who believes that the immense capacity of the human brain to learn new tricks is under attack from an array of genetic mutations that have accumulated since people started living in cities a few thousand years ago.

    “Although we are now surrounded by the technological and medical benefits of a scientific revolution, these have masked an underlying decline in brain power which is set to continue into the future leading to the ultimate dumbing-down of the human species, Professor Crabtree said.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/human-intelligence-peaked-thousands-of-years-ago-and-weve-been-on-an-intellectual-and-emotional-decline-ever-since-8307101.html

    That explains everything. From Gaza to Benghazi.

    🙂

  14. @ Canadian Otter:
    Canadian Otter Said:

    What do we call a government that sells advanced technology to an enemy, gives free land to other enemies, approves the training and arming of an enemy militia living within its borders, and facilitates trade with those who daily attack its own citizens?

    An enemy!!!

    Today’s Haaretz: “PM Netanyahu told mayors of southern Israeli cities under rocket attack on Tuesday that it was his reponsibility to choose THE RIGHT TIME to ‘exact the heaviest price’ for the continual rocket fire from Gaza.”

    Asking us to accept Spit for Rain like he does. He is fooling no one but those tied to his apron strings politically and economically. He will pay a heavy price in the coming elections and if he does act it will be another act of pyrotechnic show and tell. With BB it’s self interested politics. I said he needs the cover of many Israeli casualties to justify any action even a very limited one.

    Today’s Haaretz: “PM Netanyahu told mayors of southern Israeli cities under rocket attack on Tuesday that it was his reponsibility to choose THE RIGHT TIME to ‘exact the heaviest price’ for the continual rocket fire from Gaza.”

    That’s what they say when they have no intention to act. Standard political (sop) for the unwashed masses. People used to believe it but now it’s a joke just like BB and Barak.

    By the way, may I ask you how do you get a link to appear as a normal sentence?
    Thanks!

    Once you have a designated link you want to insert, cover the word or words with your cursor where you wish to insert link. press bold then cover same again with cursor and press link, insert the link you want and press OK.

  15. @ yamit82:
    What do we call a government that sells advanced technology to an enemy, gives free land to other enemies, approves the training and arming of an enemy militia living within its borders, and facilitates trade with those who daily attack its own citizens?

    My mind is spinning….

    Today’s Haaretz: “PM Netanyahu told mayors of southern Israeli cities under rocket attack on Tuesday that it was his reponsibility to choose THE RIGHT TIME to ‘exact the heaviest price’ for the continual rocket fire from Gaza.”

    Next year maybe? Or the year after that? No rush, Prime Minister, take your time, it’s only rockets….

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Your second link didn’t take me to the article. I found it on Google on Defensenews.com

    By the way, may I ask you how do you get a link to appear as a normal sentence?
    Thanks!

  16. @ Bernard Ross:
    Trade with the enemy continues to thrive –

    Trade between Israeli businessmen and Gaza/PA goes on undisturbed.

    Nobody would want to get too tough with Gaza or PA terror if it’s going to affect the bottom line.

    The following article is from a year ago, but the subject of Israeli firms doing brisk business with the enemy is not often addressed by the media. As a matter of fact I think that David Bedein is the only one who has reported on it. He used to have a radio show at A7 where he denounced this and other things about the government, but unfortunately A7 cancelled it.

    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/10720

  17. OMG! What’s wrong with this picture? With the government? With everybody?

    “The picture on this link shows two Israeli Electric Company employees being raised to repair GAZA wires!! The employees are in steel cages to protect them from oncoming rockets. It’s not clear what protects the drivers who pulled trucks with cranes on the back up to the spot.

    “Despite the fact that it has now been more than seven years since Israel left Gaza, Israel continues to supply a significant portion of Gaza’s electricity. No, the bills generally are not paid.

    “Sometimes, rockets fired from Gaza hit the electric wires and leave the poor ‘Palestinians’ without power. When that happens, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, the Israel Electric Company sends employees up to fix the wires. Yes, even while the shooting continues. After all, the Hamas rocket factories need to have power.”

    http://israelmatzav.blogspot.co.il/2012/11/surreal-photo-of-electric-company.html#links

  18. Lots of things can, and could have, been done in the past also. The question is why GOI does not? Perhaps the situation enables them to relieve pressure for pal state. Perhaps everyone prefers a status quo with fig leafs.