Analysis: Israel must prepare for Palestinian Authority’s collapse

T. Belman. Toward the latter half of this article the author describes Israel’s limited options in dealing with the Palestinians. If we are looking for a major war to change the facts on the ground, it isn’t going to happen. Israel would never we as ruthless as ISIS or Assad thereby causing millions of Palestinians to leave the territory. So at the end of the war, the Palestinians would still be there as the Gazans are still in Gaza. It is very important to Israel to maintain the status quo, which is the policy of this government. This dictates that we must defend the PA and the Oslo Accords so that so long as it applies, the Palestinians have virtual autonomy. Without it there would be major pressure on Israel to give them citizenship. That is why Bibi keeps saying that he doesn’t want a binational state. It is also the reason he is always embracing the peace process. Doing so is a necessary part of the Oslo Accords.

What is not discussed in this analysis is the possibility of Bennett’s Plan being implemented. Nobody, not even Bennett is discussing it any more.

One more thing, in case you still think that Israel is a free agent. Think again. Israel challenged the new entente between the US and Iran and came out the looser for doing so. Now that the US is redefining its relationship with Russia in the ME, Israel will also not be able to challenge it. Many years ago when Israel was building the security fence, they did so in conformity with the micro management by the US. Even for that we weren’t independent. That fact was a forerunner to the attempt to impose ’67 borders with swaps on us.

Abbas spokesman: If new Israeli gov’t won’t recognize 2-state solution, no chance for peace process Jerusalem yawns at PA threat to tear up Oslo Accords

By Udi Segal, JPOST, (Channel 2’s chief diplomatic analyst.)

[..]
These ill winds are accompanied by the smell of danger in the air, and its origins can be traced back to the extremist religious elements that threaten to undermine the Western norms to which we adhere. It is a lethal cloud that hovers over the entire Middle East. For a number of reasons, some of them circumstantial, it has yet to be fully felt in the Palestinian territories.

The creeping rise of radical Islam has been stymied for the most part due to the fact that the Palestinian leader, Abbas, has consistently refused to support the use of violence and terrorism. He has done so due to the cold, hard calculation that such a move would have fatal consequences for the Palestinians.

Another reason that Islamism has for the most part been halted in Judea and Samaria can be traced to the fact that the Fatah movement is in a fight for its very survival. It knows that failure would spell the end for it, and Hamas would show it no mercy. When it comes to religious fanaticism, the formula of “bad is good” applies.

This formula is what guides the spread of radical Islamism. It is the source of horror and shock that is generated by the specter of Shi’ite Islam as represented by Iran and the Revolutionary Guards. The Islamic Republic has spent a great deal of money financing terrorism as well as a costly nuclear program.

The extremist Sunni organization, Islamic State, took things a step further. Its actions dwarf the brutality of the Al Quds Force. Even al-Qaida looks like a cute, cuddly teddy bear in comparison. Have the people who have come under ISIS rule seen their lives improve? The answer is no. Bad is good.

If we were to take a peek at what is going on with our neighbors to the northeast, we are left to wonder – is there anyone enjoying the situation in Syria now? No. There is a brutal civil war there in which a quarter million people have been butchered. As a country, Syria is in ruins. Its infrastructure is crumbling. Its economy is in shambles. Its citizens are being slaughtered, and those who survived are witnesses to acts that will stay with them as personal and national traumas for generations to come.

Millions have become refugees who have streamed into Jordan and Turkey. Now, wretched and without any possessions, they knock on the doors of Europe. Is this Arab pride? Is this Syrian courage? Hezbollah has lost 1,400 guerillas, more than one-tenth of its fighting force. ISIS is conquering territory and losing some as well, bombing and being bombarded. Things are bad, for everyone involved.

And this is precisely the goal. For extremist Islam, bad is good. Only the destruction of the foundations of contemporary Western culture and a return to the stone age – in its simplest and historic meaning – will usher in the rule of sharia, the austere form of Islam that was in effect 500 years ago. That will pave the way for the establishment of the Islamic caliphate.

It is quite an ambitious goal – taking apart the artificial entities imposed by the West, including statehood, institutions of law and order, economic structure, and norms of morality and regulations. The goal is to destroy everything and wash it over with Islamism, some of whose adherents believe is engaged in a war of armageddon.

This toxic mix could easily merge with the rising tide of terror and rebellion percolating in the Palestinian territories. With despair the dominant theme, the Palestinians could decide to take everything apart. Even Abbas, the serial threatener, is planning a provocation of his own by announcing at the United Nations that he is handing back the keys to the Palestinian Authority.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unmoved. Nonetheless, such an act could be the one that breaks open the dam. The dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, a scenario that is viewed with favor of senior Likud ministers and other right-wing politicians, could be the signal for the Palestinians to unburden themselves from any obligations, leading to a heads-on clash with the army and the complete breakdown of Palestinian order.

On the Israeli right, there are quite a number of individuals – some of whom were involved in setting government policy – who claim that one more massive military confrontation – brutal, bloody, and large in scope – will enable Israel to unilaterally set its permanent borders. No more agreements. No more negotiations. No more compromises and peace processes. War, terrorism, deaths, coffins, military processions, and, finally, surrender. This is a dangerous fantasy. This is a plan that – if it is indeed a plan and if it is one that should one day be realized – will come with a tremendous cost.

If it wishes to maintain a separation between Israelis and Palestinians, then cold, hard-headed calculations dictate that Israel must keep the Palestinian Authority on its feet as a semi-state entity. All those who support the ideology of Greater Land of Israel – those who screamed in protest at suggestions that Israel take in a small number of Syrian refugees – need to ask themselves if they would be agreeable to instead take in masses of Palestinian refugees who will storm the fences and demand some kind of status. Either they be recognized as Israeli citizens, or they accept a status of second-class citizens that will only confirm Israel’s standing as an apartheid state.

Without annexation of the West Bank and conferring citizenship on the Palestinians, there is only one option – preserving separation while allowing for Palestinian autonomy and a functioning PA. This interim solution would eventually yield a demilitarized, limited Palestinian state.

Until then, Israel’s rightist government will try to maintain the status quo, if at all possible. Perhaps it would be wise of the government to take decisions on what contingency plans it wishes to implement in case there are initial signs of the Palestinian administration’s disintegration. That’s because no one is waiting. Nobody will give us time. Russia’s involvement in Syria is clear proof of this. The Russians are nearing the border with Israel. This requires a new set of understandings with a clear delineation of red lines.

Israel’s freedom of operation and its room to maneuver has now been limited. Israel, a country that for all intents and purposes is considered an American forward operating base, is one fatal mistake away from becoming the next point of friction in US-Russian relations. This is a very real threat. The volatile northern border could give ulcers to the two superpowers who sell weapons to their friends in the region and want to control energy sources without paying too heavy of a price.

Netanyahu is scheduled to travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin on Monday. This is an important trip. But whoever thinks that the premier will return to Israel with maps marked with areas outlining where the Russians will be operating simply doesn’t know the Russians well.

Just a reminder – ten years ago, after Israel presented definitive proof that lethal, Russian-manufactured Kornet anti-tank missiles were being used by Hezbollah during the Second Lebanon War, the Kremlin ordered a commission of inquiry to investigate. To this day, the commission has yet to complete its discussions.

September 20, 2015 | 18 Comments »

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  1. ADL rips Republicans for anti-Muslim campaign remarksBen Carson’s comment that he wouldn’t advocate a Muslim president ‘deeply offensive,’ watchdog group says
    http://www.timesofisrael.com/adl-rips-republicans-for-anti-muslims-campaign-remarks/

    worthless ADL changing name to muslim anti defamation league and empowering those who do everything to destroy Jews. Carson is correct for the obvious reason… only idiots would have elected a guy named hussein as their president after 911. ADL is just another PC parrot carrying someones baggage like a step and fetchit.

    belonging to the club of islam is like belonging to the nazi party… it is not a religion it is a political ideology operating as a cult which spreads violence, intolerance, sabotage, deceit, etc etc etc. the fact that there are members who dont do the dirty deeds does not absolve them from belonging to a club which does the dirty work. The beliefs and behavior of muslims is on display for the world to see…. wherever they are there is trouble……. those pretending otherwise are dishonest opportunists.
    Considering how long the ADL moved from Jews I expect their funding is now primarily non Jewish.

  2. Kahlon says he’d quit job for Herzog
    http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Kahlon-says-hed-quit-job-for-Herzog-417804

    I remember that some folks here thought that kahlon would be good and now he is running to give his seat to Herzog. I suggest it is at the behest of BB who has deflected with the red herring he seeks a right wing gov….. but I think his next moves, as he knows, will be the opposite of right wing, to invite Herzog in. But it will be preceded by an event that will appear to make it sudden whereby both BB and Herzog will make sacrifices for the sake of Israel to form a unity gov. Everything that is happening seems geared to delegitimizing the right and frightening the left. I think he is having trouble with folks buying the rhetoric announcement cycle followed by disappointment. BB brought in yaalon, brought in kahlon, brought in livni…… he did not bring in bennet or shaked and has neutered them both. He had to deal with them and their real right wing agenda so instead of embracing and implementing their agenda he found ways to kill it from the inside with smoke and mirrors. If he brings in Herzog it will be the beginning of his overt image reinvention as a “centrist”….. and to do that he will have to give more to the left.
    Lots of tough rhetoric going on now, but what will the bottom line be when the smoke clears?

  3. Shaked: A-G’s opposition to harsher penalties for rioters not bindingJustice minister dismisses Weinstein’s concerns about proposed minimum sentences for stone-throwing, firebombing attacks

    it will be interesting to watch BB and the supremes as shaked removes the fig leaf of weinstein

  4. World seems to want Syrians refugees. Many Palestinians want out of Gaza and Judah/Samaria. Plenty of Syrians passports are around. Get these for the Pals give them some money and get large boats and move to whomever will take them. Just do not tell them they are Pals (no one wants them).

  5. Israel challenged the new entente between the US and Iran and came out the looser for doing so.

    Israel lost only the illusion of American friendship, and that farce was worth losing.

  6. @ Ted Belman:My comments are being held up?

    Israel needs to react any declarations by Abbas of ending Oslo in the UN by annexing all Jewish Towns in Judah/Samaria.

    A new paradigm needs to be created for the Arab areas. In areas needed for security (e.g. Jordan Valley – E.1, etc. they also need to be annexed). Any Palestinians deemed to be dangerous should be deported or jailed as needed.

    If we can find a successor(s) to current PA either by City or all of Area A (e.g. who wants to have ,municipal level autonomy) fine if not we shall revert to IDF management of Pal Towns and Cities.

    Start an NGO which shall buy out Palestinians in certain areas such as East Jerusalem or Pal villages in Area C and find they homes in other countries with agreement to emigrate permanently.

  7. the concern should be that all the foreign players appear to be condoning the muslim abuse of Jews on the Mount and ignoring it as the cause of the riots. The arabs may be showing BB his red lines. The arab threats to Israel supposedly over the MOunt may instead signal a shift in the paradigm of the sunni war against Iran; that perhaps they are nearing a settlement. This behavior is in stark contrast to the Egyptian Saudi behavior and control of their media at Protective Edge which demonstrated cooperation.

  8. Perhaps it would be wise of the government to take decisions on what contingency plans it wishes to implement in case there are initial signs of the Palestinian administration’s disintegration. That’s because no one is waiting. Nobody will give us time. Russia’s involvement in Syria is clear proof of this. The Russians are nearing the border with Israel. This requires a new set of understandings with a clear delineation of red lines.

    If the author believes that global and regional strategies in play are contingent on the survival of the PA he is delusional. It is the reverse causal relationship. No amount of placating the PA will have any effect on the regional re ordering. When the global and regional paradigms shift so will the PA, and not the reverse. If the global and regional powers in play decide to attack Israel it will be for other reasons. One of those reasons might be that although BB claims relations with the GCC Israel did nothing to advance their designs in syria, Iraq and lebanon. Sitting on the fence and never becoming a player does not give them much benefit. Unless there are, or were, other benefits to them I would expect them to revert to former paradigms as soon as convenient. Perhaps that time is now, as it appears that deals are being made in syria. In any case, in the ME the sands and alliances keep shifting…. perhaps Israel missed opportunities wrt hezbullah

  9. My comment above was machine held up.

    Israel needs to react any declarations by Abbas of ending Oslo in the UN by annexing all Jewish Towns in Judah/Samaria.

    A new paradigm needs to be created for the Arab areas. In areas needed for security (e.g. Jordan Valley – E.1, etc. they also need to be annexed). Any Palestinians deemed to be dangerous should be deported or jailed as needed.

    If we can find a successor(s) to current PA either by City or all of Area A (e.g. who wants to have ,municipal level autonomy) fine if not we shall revert to IDF management of Pal Towns and Cities.

    Start an NGO which shall buy out Palestinians in certain areas such as East Jerusalem or Pal villages in Area C and find they homes in other countries with agreement to emigrate permanently.

  10. This is a very real threat. The volatile northern border could give ulcers to the two superpowers who sell weapons to their friends in the region and want to control energy sources without paying too heavy of a price.

    Here the author stumbles on a real threat but appeasement would not mitigate that threat. Both the USSR and the US military industrial complex view Israel as a competitor stealing their markets. We have already seen what happens to any leader in the oil producing nations who get uppity and try to cut out the top players.
    The authors approach to the military threats is completely wrong as no amount of appeasement of the PA or the GCC will make any difference to those threats. they are threats of self interest and are governed by other events. E.G. the GCC will only cooperate with Israel until the paradigm shifts. If the GCC no longer sees a benefit in their war against Iran and proxies they will dump Israel and perhaps even refocus the attention of their sunni proxies on Israel as a replacement scapegoat, focus and red herring. If the GCC wish to make final agreement with iran and proxies then they must decide what to do with all the jihadis they assembled to fight them, they must kill those jihadis, have them kill each other, send them to a different theatre or turn them on Israel in a “demonstration” of their rapprochement with the other muslims. In such a scenario Israel must be more ruthless in killing enemies without wavering.
    Keep in mind that russia and america has recently armed the muslim govs in the ME with all new weaponry and Israel MUST consider that they all ally and turn it on Israel….. this must be a considered scenario…… such a scenario would require the most ruthless of strategies. In such a scenario no narratives of arab peace initiatives have any value.

  11. Without annexation of the West Bank and conferring citizenship on the Palestinians, there is only one option – preserving separation while allowing for Palestinian autonomy and a functioning PA.

    This comment is typical of superficial, anachronistic and in the box thinking. First, there is more than ONE option, second it does not assume the efficacy of a “functioning” PA or a state of order. The chaos and disorder of syria and Iraq have proven to be efficacious. A PA which is constantly changing, falling apart and reconstituting, never achieving any semblance of an ability to govern is fine. A population who is kept struggling to exist and feed their family are more likely to emigrate, leaving the violent to be mopped up by drones. The only thing wrong with gazan state of affairs is Israel does not fully control access and imports whereas the PA can be fully controlled as to what goes in.

    This interim solution would eventually yield a demilitarized, limited Palestinian state.

    why seek an “ultimate” stabilized outcome? Until the swamp is drained of most of its hostile population there should be no desire of reaching a stabilized goal. Maintaining an ever changing den of disorder is a good thing as long as one can control what goes in and what goes out. I can envision many scenarios where Israel can even create fake gangs with masks like the russians did in donetsk. Israel can set up false flag gangs who rule the pal streets after killing off the current leaders. Israel can go in, round up the leaders and then on the way out the transport can be ambushed by the false flag gangs, the leaders removed and executed for some breach of islamic duty or whatever by the fake gangs. There are many ways to replace the current leadership with deception and establish new leaderships beholden and maintained by Israel.

    need to ask themselves if they would be agreeable to instead take in masses of Palestinian refugees who will storm the fences and demand some kind of status. Either they be recognized as Israeli citizens, or they accept a status of second-class citizens

    LOL, again an example of the most superficial and unimaginative thought. Any fool who is willing to allow the storming of his home is an idiot undeserving of any home, especially eretz yisroel. This fool envisions being faced with hordes of demanding pals rather than shooting our their legs or having drones kill them all on the way. Anyone who is unwilling to kill their enemy ruthlessly and mercilessly to guarantee safety to their family is a fool deserving his fate. It would be best if he returned to europe where ex concentration camps are being redecorated for new arrivals.

    Either they be recognized as Israeli citizens, or they accept a status of second-class citizens……

    Again, pure rubbish. they can not be recognized as Israeli citizens OR second class citizens because intelligent Jews do not admit jew killers into their home. As to what they are or have, who cares, I know I don’t. If anyone cares they can take them in as refugees…. Jordan unilaterally removed their citizenship but that is not Israels problem. They should be considered as a hostile,dangerous population currently squatting on Israel land. The same is true of the arab MK 5th columnists who went to cavort with the hashemite anti semite.

    …that will only confirm Israel’s standing as an apartheid state..

    so the low life leftist lying author of this article spreads the libel that Israel is an apartheid state and further action would only confirm what already exists. In my view such folks are guilty of inciting the murder of Jewish children just as medieval blood libels did. The apartheid libel is just one of the excuses the honor killer used when killing Jewish children in france. In my world such a blood libeler who incites murder of Jewish children would be mandatory shot on sight.

  12. Israel needs to react any declarations by Abbas of ending Oslo in the UN by annexing all Jewish Towns in Judah/Samaria.

    A new paradigm needs to be created for the Arab areas. In areas needed for security (e.g. Jordan Valley – E.1, etc. they also need to be annexed). Any Palestinians deemed to be dangerous should be deported or jailed as needed.

    If we can find a successor(s) to current PA either by City or all of Area A (e.g. who wants to have ,municipal level autonomy) fine if not we shall revert to IDF management of Pal Towns and Cities.

    Start an NGO which shall buy out Palestinians in certain areas such as East Jerusalem or Pal villages in Area C and find they homes in other countries with agreement to emigrate permanently.

  13. Israel needs to shake itself loose of the American orbit and look forward to safeguarding its own interests.

    The US has decided to cast its future with Iran. One in which a special relationship with Israel has no place.

    If the PA disintegrates, Israel should be prepared to repatriate the Arabs to Syria. Let them become Europe’s problem.