PM has managed to deny his centrist rival a parliamentary majority, and stands poised to reap the rewards when Blue and White chief finally gives up his mandate on Wednesday night
The dour mood in Blue and White could be felt all through the night Tuesday. If anyone there had hoped that the meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and party leader Benny Gantz would bring a last-minute breakthrough in efforts to form a unity government, the post-meeting statements quickly poured cold water on what had already been largely understood ahead of time: the odds were slim to none.
Senior Blue and White officials despaired.
“Netanyahu is unwilling to give up anything,” one told Zman Israel, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew-language sister site. “He is insisting on serving the entire first year as prime minister in the rotation. He’s not compromising on the leave of absence [in case he is indicted on criminal charges], with no one clear on when it would start and when it would end. He’s unwilling to give up immunity.
“If Netanyahu had accepted [compromises on] these terms, Gantz would [even] have broken up Blue and White [to join a unity government]. But he has no reason. Even those among us who want to go to unity [with Likud] weren’t given that option by Netanyahu,” the official added.
A Netanyahu video put out while he was meeting with Gantz was seen by Blue and White as an electioneering stunt or part of the blame game for the looming elections. Netanyahu called on Blue and White to use the US announcement Tuesday that it no longer views settlements as illegal in order to back Netanyahu’s election promise to annex the Jordan Valley. The video was designed to enable him to blame Blue and White for missing a “historic opportunity,” a term he has bandied about enthusiastically in recent days, Blue and White officials charged.
Tuesday’s intensive political activity gave the impression that something serious was happening. Party leaders conversed, the president met with everyone, negotiators from Likud and Blue and White sat together.
Less than 24-hours later, after Yisrael Beytenu chief Avigdor Liberman declared he would not back Gantz or Netanyahu without the other, the stage appeared set for Gantz to return the premiership mandate to the president Wednesday night.
Netanyahu, of course, will breathe a sigh of relief. Barring a major surprise late on Wednesday, the reins will pass to the Knesset’s lawmakers for the next 21 days to pick someone to hand the mandate to, or dissolve parliament and declare a third round of elections.
The new situation will be better for Netanyahu. He has a structural advantage: he heads a bloc of 55 MKs and is closer to achieving a parliamentary majority than his rival. The right-wing Haredi bloc has proven strong and stable. Gantz only has 44 MKs, and not all of them are loyal. It’s not just Yair Lapid, Moshe Ya’alon and Gabi Ashkenazi, fellow leaders of Blue and White, who have refused to join a unity coalition with Netanyahu; Labor-Gesher head Amir Peretz and Democratic Camp chief Nitzan Horowitz also said Tuesday they did not want to sit under Netanyahu.
A disappointed Gantz has few options left over the next three weeks. For what it’s worth, he can console himself with the knowledge that he was nominated to head Israel’s government – an honor only a few have been able to claim since Israel’s founding.
He may want to carefully study the political maneuvers Netanyahu has used to limit his options over the past month, from the formation of the rightist Haredi bloc of 55 seats through the appointment of Naftali Bennett as defense minister and the massive media blitz he orchestrated over the non-existent minority government with Arab parties’ support.
Gantz may be in the big leagues, but when it comes to cut-throat political skullduggery, he is apparently still a rookie.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Yes thank you Adam, I’m well as usual. The reason I don’t join in is because everything has been repeated every way possible , upside down as well And there’s nothing I can add Also I can’t be bothered to hunt down and pore over other news outlets, for basically the same news, slightly altered according to the reporter’s imagination..
,,
I got tired of repeating the same posts, with the same info, just a different format. We all know it, and we all read the same news. I’ve become philosophical in my self-induced “vacation”.
Half the country wants him to step down according to a new poll.
The Likud needs a new leader sooner than later.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I agree Gantz has a chance after new elections to become the Prime Minister. You stated or heavily implied that during the 21 days he would become PM, that I do NOT concur at all.
@ Edgar G.:
Thanks for keeping me informed, Edgar. Haven’t heard from you for a while. Hope you are well. I know you have other things to deal with, but it would be nice if you could join our conversations about Israeli poitics more often. I miss your “voice.” Best wishes, Adam.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I’m glad you are modest enough to say “I have no prophetic powers” because what you just prophesied was sheer nonsense, although I beg your pardon for saying so.. The solidity lf the Bloc has not even been dented, and even with Netanyahu temporarily distracted or incapacitated, and however keen the contest for replacement becomes, they will ALWAYs make sure NOT to unsettle the Bloc, which has been their strength for many years. Why should they. Their internal jealousies (always present in political parties) will not be enough to pull down disaster on themselves a la Sampson….
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
It shouldn’t matter a damn. An interim govt as is now, is just as capable, having the almost same roster, of issuing the orders to the IDF. The IDF has all the scenarios well rehearsed and the Ministers would be more or less from then on, onlookers.
If hostilities begin, the interim is forgotten until the crisis is over. Not even a half-wit will try to interfere with govt. during an ongoing war…..
With an interim govt. which is actually the same one, still functioning,…..Only the “interim” is inserted, the public doesn’t even notice any difference. The buses run, the stores open, the banks too, and so on. life goes on as usual.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Mandelblit announced indictments today, as soon s Gantz handed back. This of course is only to hamper or prevent Netanyahu from proceeding to get together a governemnt. as his intention has been all along.
What upsets me about this possible scenario is that it will leave Israel with a weak government, with no one clearly in charge, for several months. And that will create a window for Hezbollah or Hamas to attack.
I don’t think that a Gantz-Lapid government would be a good government for israel, but obviously a permanent government with a four year mandate would be in a stronger position to repel an armed attack than a termporary interim government. Gantz and Lapid clearly in charge would mean Israel could mount an effective response to large-scale armed aggression than with nobody clearly in charge.
With respect to the new primaries solution: It takes time to organize and conduct a primary, even if the Likud leadership agrees to hold one Usually a few months. This is not a solution that can be reached in three weeks.
If no one is able to amass the required 61 signatures to form a new government, the Cabinet will have to appoint one of their number as Deputy Prime Minister. This individual will then be acting prime minister until elections are held in March.
Because Bibi still commands a lot of respect within his cabinet and with Likud, I believe they will approve as deputy prime minister and future acting prime minister someone whom Bibi nominates. That will probably either Katz or Yariv Levin, who are personal friends of his. (Levin is better qualified for the position and more independent). New elections will have to be called. A Likud primary will then be held, and a new leader, either Gideon Sa’ar or someone else, will be “crowned” after a fairly lengthy campaign, possibly extending nearly up to the third election date in March. With Likud still disunited and in disarray, and with the polls already predicting a likely Blue-White victory, Blue-White will finally form a government in March, with either Gantz or another Blue-White front-lister (possibly Lapid) becoming Prime Minister. I have no prophetic powers. But this seems to me a very likely scenario if Blue-White cannot put together a viable coalition over the next three weeks.
@ Bear Klein: We still cannot rule out Gantz as the next Prime Minister. Once Bibi is indicted many members of the Knesset will rethink their past positions. It will change the political equation.
I don’t think Blue-White want a Likudnik, whether Bibi or any other Likud politician, to remain in office pending new elections in March. While present polls show Blue-White winning the third election if it is held, they will still be taking a risk. And in the meantime, Likud would remain in the government and able to set priorities, distribute patronage, etc. It would make sense for both the left bloc and Yisrael Beitenu to rethink their positions on a Gantz government and decide to let him form a “minority” government. I admit that Israeli politicians have shown less common sense than even I expected.
Odeh and Tibi could give Gantz a big boost by announcing that their MKs will sign a petition for Gantz for “tactical” reasons only, in order to get rid of Bibi as quickly as possible; that Gantz has not promised them anything in return, that they are not demanding any quid pro quo in return for their signatures, and that they will remain in opposition when he becomes Prime Minister. Gantz could also help himself by walking back his previous statements that he regards the continued existence of many settlements as open to negotiation with the PLO, and making tougher criticisms of the Joint List than his previous statements about them. (I’m still being creative).
@ Adam Dalgliesh:You are trying creative thinking. Let me put this short Yaalon is not very popular. He has respect among some people. He is not happening! Gantz also is not happening during the 21 days, he is no way of getting 60 more signatures. No one from Blue/White will get 61 signatures during the 21 days.
I am not saying Saar will be nominated. I doubt Katz will be as he is viewed as a Bibi yes man and does not seem up to the big job. I personally only see as capable Saar or Nir Barkat. I personally view Barkat as the most qualified in all aspects. That said I doubt he currently has the clout in the Likud, as he is relatively new to the Likud.
Bibi is now indicted for both the good of the country and also the Likud and Right-Wing change at the top is urgently needed. Bibi should not be hanging on just for immunity which more and more seems to be the case. He should work with his lawyer’s full time to keep himself out of jail. I would NOT like to see him go to jail.
I hope Rivlin gets creative and drafts Saar to get 61 signatures during the 21 days but this maybe politically risky for Saar.
The Likud need new primaries for the leadership role.
@ Bear Klein: While I have no objection to Sa’ar as head of government and/or Likud leader when and if Bibi is forced to step down (which I think is very likely in the near future), Bibi still has a lot of clout and respect in Likud circles. I don’t think the party will select as their new leader someone with a reputation as a long-time internal rival of Bibi.
The candidate that Bibi seems to favor as his successor is Israel Katz, the Foreign Minister (appointed to that post by Bibi). Katz also “happens” to be chairman of the Likud Central Committee, and has vowed to use his position to block a primary.
It is still far from certain that there will be a third election. No one will admit to wanting it. All members of the Knesset have three weeks to line up 61 signatures to enable Rivlin to authorize him/her to form a government. Once Bibi is indicted, which the Jerusalem Post says is likely by early next week, other MKs will have a more credible case with their colleagues to succeed him. It is a reasonable guess that Gantz will make one more try to line up the support he will need to form a government. Another possibility, though, is that another Blue-White MK, possibly “Boogie” Yaalon, will give it a try. In order for that to happen, Gantz would have to cede the leadership of the Blue-White Coalition to “Boogie.” But perhaps after the humiliation of failing to form a government during the initial two weeks given him by Rivlin, he might be willing to cede leadership to “Boogie.”
“Boogie” does not have many personal enemies. Bibi fired him as Defense Minister reluctantly, and offered him the post of Foreign Minister as compensation, which “Boogie” refused. His departure from Netanyahu’s government and joining of his new party to Blue and White would make him acceptable to that coalition.Because he had previously been a member of Likud and has a reputation as a “hawk,” he may well be acceptable to many members of Likud as the leader of a national unity government. As far as I can tell, he has not angered Bibi as much as Sa’ar, so that he might consent to “Boogie” succeeding him.
<blockquote>Gideon Sa’ar: I’ll form the next government and unify Israel
Netanyahu rival doubts Netanyahu can form another coalition.
Likud leadership candidate Gideon Sa’ar went a step further toward challenging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Thursday’s Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference by saying that he, unlike the current prime minister, could build a coalition.
Sa’ar called for setting a timetable for a Likud leadership primary. He said this was necessary to set Likud apart from parties that do not have primaries, like Yesh Atid, and it is what is required by the Likud’s constitution.
“If a new government won’t be formed and we go to new elections, it will not be reasonable that the prime minister will be successful in forming a government after a third election, so I think the necessary thing to do, if we are in front of new elections, is to set a Likud leadership primary. I think I will be able to form a government, and I think I will be able to unify the country and the nation.”
Sa’ar lamented that Likud has not had a real leadership primary for several years already. The last serious candidate to pose a threat to Netanyahu’s leadership of Likud was Silvan Shalom in 2005 after Ariel Sharon left to form the Kadima party.
Sa’ar said he still hoped a unity government would be formed and Israel would not go to its third election in under a year.
When asked on stage about the upcoming decision on Netanyahu’s criminal cases, Sa’ar said that he “won’t speculate about the decision of Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit.
“We should wait in patience,” he told his interviewer, Jerusalem Post Knesset correspondent Lahav Harkov. “I don’t think it is good to hold a principled discussion on personal circumstances.”
I think Saar is correct it has proven so too many Knessett members refuse to sit with Bibi in a coalition. It is time for new Likud leadership.
It ain’t over until its over, as Yogi wisely observed. THe Jewish Press says that Netanyahu’s indictment will probably be announced by Mandelblit as early as Thursday. Once the reality of Netanyahu’s indictment sinks in, Gantz will probably try to line up the 61 signatures he needs to become Prime Minister. Many of the MKs who balked at supporting as of Wednesday will probably change their minds over the next three weeks as it becomes clear that Netanyahu will be unable to remain Prime Minister.
I almost felt sorry for Gantz and then he said it was all about one person Netanyahu, showing Gantz doesn’t have what it takes…