Avigdor Lieberman and the new far-right Israeli center

See also: 15 reasons why Netanyahu could lose the next Israeli elections

As Herzog and Livni unite to woo the center-left, the fate of the elections – and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process – will be decided on the center-right.

By Chemi Shalev, HAARETZ

Lieberman11. Settlers and their supporters are habitual wishful thinkers, which is why they suffer from chronic disappointment. They were surprised by Begin’s Sinai withdrawal, dismayed by Shamir’s Madrid attendance, shocked by Rabin’s Oslo Accords , dumbfounded by Netanyahu’s Hebron departure, astonished by Barak’s Camp David offer, horrified by Sharon’s Gaza disengagement and absolutely flabbergasted by Olmert’s Annapolis offer.

They were also taken aback by Netanyahu’s two-state speech at Bar-Ilan in 2009, although they were accurate in their prognosis that it would amount to nothing. He didn’t have it in him, they said.

The source of the ultra-right’s recidivist misreading of the Israeli public’s mood is almost touching: when it seems to them that events on the ground have proven them right, they persuade themselves that bulk of the Israeli public has come round to their point of view as well. Which is why they are now convinced that they have finally and irrevocably won the argument: after Camp David, the withdrawal from Lebanon, the second intifada, the suicide bombings, the Hamas takeover of Gaza, the Kassam rockets and the general Middle East mayhem, it is incomprehensible to them that there’s anyone left, other than the feeble-minded, who still believes in peace with the Palestinians or is willing to part with any part of Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem. It is not an illogical assumption, but it is, nonetheless, no more than an optical illusion.

2. Israelis are more right wing than ever in many ways – except the ones that matter most to the settlers and their supporters. They may have grown more intolerant, xenophobic, racist or disdainful of democracy, but their sympathy for settlements has increased only marginally in the past decade or two. Israelis don’t trust Mahmoud Abbas for a second, agree that Hamas is ISIS in drag, assume that Palestinians want to throw them into the sea and suspect that Israeli Arabs are one step away from a fifth column – but give them a half a chance to leave the territories and a leadership that will show the way, and most Israelis will follow, however reluctantly.

Just look at the most recent figures published this week in the monthly Peace Index published by Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute’s Guttman Center for Surveys: 59% of Israelis, including 54% of Israeli Jews, support renewed negotiations with Abbas based on a two-state solution; 56% agree with Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s assertion that that “the unity of the people of the people is more important than the unity of the land.”

Or look at it this way – when trying to delineate political opinions, pollsters usually divide Israelis into three distinct groups: right, center, and left. Those who answer center-right are annexed to the right and those who answer center-left are added to the left. According to a recent poll carried out on behalf of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 11% of Israelis describe themselves as left, 13% as center-left, 18% as center, 29% as center-right and 22% as right. The headline will state that 51% of Israelis are right or right-leaning, 24% left or left-leaning and only 18% as center.

Read another way, however, and the news is dramatically different: 60% of Israelis describe themselves as centrist, with the “center-right” comprising the biggest voting bloc by far.

3. Ever since the centrist Dash party appeared out of nowhere in the 1977 elections to capture 15 Knesset seats, the center has served as the main launching pad for great-white-hope parties that have amounted to almost nothing. Only once has a centrist party reached power, and this was in 2006, when Kadima won the elections, albeit on the coattails of the by-then crippled Ariel Sharon. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid also did spectacularly well in the 2013 elections, though it is not clear whether it has any hope of repeating its success in the upcoming March 17 ballot.

In fact, Lapid may be quickly losing his constituency. By hooking up with Tzipi Livni, Labor’s Yitzhak Herzog is hoping to attract centrist and left-of center voters of the type who voted for Kadima in 2006 and may have voted not only for Livni’s Ha’Tnuah but also for Lapid’s Yesh Atid in 2013. That still leaves a sizeable chunk of right-wing centrists for whom a Labor-Livni alliance is way too left but who also feel uncomfortable with the increasingly settler-dominated Likud, which has moved to the right. Here Lapid may find himself competing with two no-less formidable rivals: Moshe Kahlon, the former Minister of Communications who has positioned himself as the working man’s hero and a Likudnik willing to give back territories, as well as Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu party.

4. Lieberman, you might ask? Rabid right-winger Lieberman? He’s now a centrist? Ok, let’s not get carried away. By most measures – especially his reprehensible attitude towards Israel’s Arabs – Lieberman is as far away from a stereotypical liberal/leftist as can be. He has traditionally been viewed as part and parcel of the right. But if one uses willingness to withdraw from territories as the sole yardstick, Lieberman is obviously miscast. And if one defines the right as that which will automatically endorse Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister – as Naftali Bennett has pledged – then Lieberman is no rightist at all.

In fact, this is where he has been staking his territory throughout the past year, either in reaction to Naftali Bennett’s having cornered the no-compromise right wing flank or because Lieberman realizes that this is where the Israeli zeitgeist resides right now: with utter loathing for the Palestinian partner, borderline-racist mistrust of Israeli Arabs, complete disdain for liberal do-gooders, human rights-hooey and constitutional hypocrisies, but, yes, a willingness to relinquish the territories, if conditions are ripe and the price is right.

Throughout the past year, Lieberman has often seemed like a contradiction in terms, reflecting, perhaps, Israel’s troubled soul. He’s made offensive offers to pay Israeli Arabs to go away to Palestine, but at the same time has been the sole responsible adult in nurturing relations with the U.S., which most Israelis, Obama or no Obama, continue to covet. He’s lambasted Mahmoud Abbas as an incorrigible inciter if not serial terrorist, but has made no secret of his willingness to withdraw from the West Bank under the umbrella of a regional solution, perhaps even the Arab Peace Initiative. He’s come so far that the Peace Index cites him as an authority in order to gauge the Israeli public’s willingness to make peace.

Lieberman seeks to cast himself in the same Nixon-to-China mold as some of his illustrious predecessors. The Israeli public is willing to make peace, it seems, provided it is carried out by a prime minister who is known at one time or another to want nothing less. That’s why they followed Begin and Sharon and even Rabin, grudgingly, but not Shimon Peres or other Labor leaders who appeared too eager to trust the other side. They would have followed Netanyahu as well, but rather than going forward, he preferred to stay put.

5. Lieberman’s electoral prospects, however, are not shining brightly. He has a lackluster Knesset list and many of his traditional Russian immigrant voters are moving on, rightwards or leftwards, to traditional Israeli parties. But the political arena is rife with rumors about the new stars that Lieberman may unveil and, more significantly, about a possible joint list with Kahlon or even one with both Kahlon and Lapid (though it is hard to see how those three will agree who among them will lead the list). And even if they don’t get together before the elections, they may very well collaborate in its aftermath in deciding whom to recommend as the next prime minister.

Though it seems unlikely now, if Likud emerges as the biggest party by far, Lieberman and Kahlon may have no choice but to recommend Netanyahu. But given half a chance, all three “right-wing centrists”, if we include Lapid, would like nothing better than to see Netanyahu go home, for their own sweet reasons. And all three may well prefer to see Bennett stay in the opposition as well.

But one thing is clear: the supposed lock that the right wing has on winning the next elections is anything but. The Israeli political map is in a state of flux, changing tis shape and contours as we speak: the left is different, the right isn’t the same and the center isn’t insignificant, as conventional wisdom holds, but the arena where Israel’s future will most likely be decided.

December 11, 2014 | 6 Comments »

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6 Comments / 6 Comments

  1. @ Ted Belman:
    May as well forget it.
    Everyone is branching out, in and sideways. A veritable Texas low class whorehouse.
    Eli Ishai is said to be forming another party with the fellow from Tekumah. Kohalon and Lieberman dance with Lapid.
    The HS school kids called me and said that they have other things to do rather than trying to poll in neutral. It is all too far decayed to risk a stand for.
    I agree.

  2. With either Livni or Lapid incorporated into Labor…it won’t work. Lieberman is a loose wire and the public will for sure not place him into a powerful position considering his behavior, flip flopping and flying off the handle, offending the wrong people at the wrong time.
    Netanyahu will be returned for no other reason to run the clock down on obama, until he is safely out of office.
    The biggest winner of the elections, if he plays his cards correctly will be MK Bennet. Bibi can teach Naftali what he needs to know to be Israel’s next PM. In the meantime, Bennet is a possible Defense Minister, dependant upon his ability to work with Bibi.

  3. Bibi is not in trouble, he will form the next government.
    The proof is in this months polls. Livni is down and out and not far behind is the ‘Ted Baxter’ TV Anchor Lapid. They are going to bring down whichever parties take them in. They are, damaged goods; the electorate neither likes them nor trusts them for good reason. Lieberman’s support is hanging by a frayed thread. Avigdor is NOT someone the public wishes to see in a “noble” role, a two dimensional character/gadfly role without any character, is the most he will ever be, he’s virtually finished. Why, his public statements are off the radar,leaves much of the educated public; flabergasted. He flip flops and offends the wrong people at the wrong time, seemingly on a whim so he qualifies for the label of “loose wire”. The Israeli public will not place a loose wire in a position to sign a deal with abbas on a whim or launch an attack because someting offended him, personally.
    These has beens, when added to labor for example will not draw centrists to labor, on the contrary. The far leftists will have qualms supporting a labor ticket with Livni(Netanyahu’s Justice Minister and so on.
    No No NO. The public is understandably so interested and impressed by the likes of Naftali Bennet. His ability to be focused, his moral character and conviction. Perhaps many may also feel that MK Bennet needs more experience before being accepted as a Prime Minister, there may be a developing willingness to see him as a strong candidate for minister of Defense under the only person who can fills the shoes of an Israeli PM, yes, Binyamin Netanyahu. Bibi has engineered, brilliantly some would argue around the Kadima phony agenda and the absolutely most anti-Israel US Administration in history which pretends to be “the best friend Israel ever had”. He is cool under pressure, appoints better people than his Kadima predecessors and has been courageously keeping the iran issue in the public domain and may, ‘at the end of the day’ vindicate him even with his naysayers here. I agree with the naysayers on most counts but; whenever obama tries to do a dirty Netanyahu is there and neutralizes it, somehow. The public will NOT turn Netanyahu out of office so long as obama is playing the role of POTUS: very poorly, I might add. How the american Jewish community voted for the guy not once but twice and continue to cut checks for him up until today is very very disconcerting. Israel has to plan for the day when it tells uncle sam to go jump in a lake, imo.

  4. I read as far as “ha’aretz”. The best Hebrew written paper of the PLO and Hamas.
    A group of youngsters, HS school students, not precisely from right wing families, came out with a poll they run at supermarkets, kupot holim, restaurants, train station in ACCO, local gas stations, garages, bus station…
    Since it was given to me under strict conditions I would report only w/o assignment.

    LIKUD: 26 on a positive trend 26
    Jewish Home: 18 positive trend 18
    MAPAI hybrid: 14 unstable
    Islamics: 11 Solid
    SHAS: 10 10
    Lieberman: 9 down trend
    Kohalon: 8 down trend
    Lapid: 8 sharp down trend
    Torah: 8 up trend 8
    Meretz 8 up trend

    My estimate is that either Kohalon or Lieberman or both will move into Netanyahu’s side.