Bewildering Guide to Israel’s Recognition of Samaliland

Peloni:  The horn of Africa stands as the choke point thru which the world’s largest trade route might be managed.  As a regional superpower, this has inevitably attracted Israel in response to regional foes and greater geopolitical influences.

Translation: 

Interpretation for Shabbat on the move of recognizing Somaliland.

Here is a bewildered guide to the dramatic step, on the eve of Shabbat’s entry…

The Israeli decision to recognize Somaliland is a deeply strategic move to change the regional balance. The fact that Israel was the first in the world to recognize Somaliland, and immediately after it South Sudan joined, is not coincidental. This is a well-timed maneuver that positions Jerusalem in a strong opening position in the Horn of Africa space, one of the most sensitive and important areas in the global arena.

On the immediate level, the recognition provides Israel with an entry point for maritime and security grip against an increasingly tightening axis of China, Djibouti, and Somalia, and directly also against Turkey.
Djibouti has become in recent years an unprecedented concentration point of foreign bases, at their head a large Chinese base, which allows Beijing continuous military presence on the shipping artery between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

In parallel, Turkey has established in Somalia a military, intelligence, and economic infrastructure whose purpose is control and influence over that exact maritime space.
In this context, I recommend watching the attached video to understand the Turkish strategy.

Somaliland, which is not subject to Mogadishu and is not part of these arrangements, creates for Israel a rare window of opportunity.

But the deep meaning of the recognition does not stop at the indirect confrontation with China and Turkey. Somaliland is also the key to the sea for Ethiopia, a country of more than a hundred million inhabitants, with economic growth and regional aspirations, but without sea access since the loss of Eritrea. For Addis Ababa, a port in Somaliland is a top strategic interest. Here also enters the Indian context: Narendra Modi’s visit to Addis Ababa in recent weeks is not disconnected from these developments.

India sees the Horn of Africa as a critical arena in its influence struggle against China, and Israel integrates into this axis naturally.
The Israeli move also directly touches Ankara’s nerve point. If there is one decision that may drive Erdogan crazier than anything, it is international recognition of Somaliland accompanied by the practical ability to deploy listening, monitoring, and control capabilities over one of the world’s most important shipping routes. Just as Turkey itself does along the Red Sea and in the eastern Mediterranean, so too Israel understands that the real struggle is not over declarations but over presence, intelligence, and sustained influence capability.

It is important to understand: this is not a one-time event but a process. The recognition is only the first stage in a broader alliance, at whose center is a clear strategic conception of the space. The Israeli anchor no longer shrinks to the narrow Middle East, but stretches from India, through Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, and to Cush.Within this space, the question is now being examined who controls the trade routes, who collects intelligence, and who succeeds in building a network of alliances that holds over time.

December 28, 2025 | Comments »

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