Biden’s conduct endangers the Abraham Accords

When the American superpower turns its back on a major player in the regional peace process while cozying up to Riyadh’s sworn enemy, Jerusalem should be worried.

By  Prof. Abraham Ben-Zvi, ISRAEL HAYOM

A view of new US President Joe Biden’s maiden foreign policy speech on Feb. 4 shows a real change in terms of goals and priorities for the new administration that could have ramifications for the regional peace process, as well as for Israel directly.

First of all, everything having to do with the Gulf area – but also in the rest of the content Biden addressed in his speech – was marked by a desire to disengage, immediately and completely, from former President Donald Trump’s global and regional policy. For example, the 45^th president based his regional approach on a steady supply of advanced weaponry to Saudi Arabia in order to provide the Saudis with concrete defenses and deterrence against the Iranian challenge, while also allowing it (as part of the inter-Arab alliance it lead) to put constant military pressure on the Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.

The goal was to lead to a military victory that would strike a serious blow to the ayatollah regime’s regional influence and prestige. In addition, the policy of supplying weapons to Riyadh, especially toward the end of Trump’s term in office, was intended to incentivize the Saudi regime to support (if discreetly) the regional peace process that was gradually taking shape, hoping that later on it would step out of the closet and endorse and welcome the Abraham Accords as a full partner. The same went for the United Arab Emirates, which not long ago crossed the Rubicon and signed a peace deal with Israel. With the UAE, as with the Saudis, the Trump administration served in the role of a beneficial broker. It promised the UAE an incentive in the form of 50 F-35 fighter planes in exchange for the government agreeing to normalize relations with Israel, while also continuing to take part in the war against the Houthis in Yemen as part of the bigger battle against Iran.

Now, the Biden administration has decided to make a U-turn on both these fronts and immediately freeze all deals for offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including the deal for the F-35s, which was a major element in the Emirates’ decision to enter into a “warm peace” with Israel.

The declared purpose of this altered policy was to stop the flow of military and logistics aid to the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, whose actions – mainly airstrikes – have caused serious and ongoing harm to the innocent Yemeni civilian population.

But beneath this moral cloaking, it isn’t hard to identify other clearly strategic considerations, which – beyond the White House’s secret ambition to upend every one of Trump’s diplomatic moves – center around a desire to send Iran a message of intent.

In other words, suspending aid to the US’s traditional allies in the Gulf who are fighting against the Iranian challenge is a clear signal to Iran about the administration’s intent to trade the stick of deterrence, enforcement, and help in fighting Iran’s satellites in Yemen in for a bunch of conciliatory carrots from the “soft power” toolbox of diplomacy.

These steps to freeze aid to traditional allies of the US, without the president’s policy speech including even a bit of criticism of the Iranian regime, should build trust with Tehran and pave the way for renewed nuclear talks and the US rejoining the JCPOA.

Given that, the question to be asked is how this policy will affect the future conduct of all the US’s allies in the region. Although it’s still too early to assess definitively what will happen in such a complicated and dynamic region, there is a place to assume that the US efforts to warm up to the Tehran regime will comprise a major blow to the base of the Abraham Accords, while also stopping the peace process and preventing it from expanding to other countries. When the American patron turns its back on a player in the main axis of the entire process (the Saudis) while also sending conciliatory messages to Riyadh’s sworn enemy, it creates a fog of uncertainty and doubt about the American superpower’s place in the region at all, which should cause Jerusalem to worry.

Time will tell whether, at least when it comes to Iran, we are at the beginning of a time tunnel back to the days of Barack Obama, under whom Biden served as a loyal vice president for eight years.