Peloni:Matt Williams gives a fair analysis of the Ukraine situation following Trump’s shortening his previous 50 day deadline to a 10-12 day deadline seems to leave little to no chance for even an attempt at peace, raising many questions. So, where might Trump’s policy of upending a long negotiating period for an impossibly short one ultimately lead? How might Russia be expected to react to this reversal of policy? And most importantly, how might Russia’s trading partners react?
Begin watching at about 6min 45sec.
https://apnews.com/article/netrebko-lawsuit-metropolitan-opera-8a615564981386a8ac7503148538159d
Reminder: This is Day 16 of Trump’s 50-day countdown to World War III.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/medvedev-advises-putin-start-wwiii-before-trumps-50-day-ultimatum/
Update: On Day 15 Trump shortened the ultimatum to 25 days. “Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.” — Dmitry Medvedev
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/step-towards-war-kremlin-slams-trump-threats-unleashes-more-deadly-missile-attacks
The Ukrainian, pro-Ukrainian and Russian oppositionist sites all claim that the Russian economy is in terrible shape and near collapse. They concede that for the first two years or so of the war, the Russian economy was booming, because of the stimulous created by the increased military spending. However, they say the war has now put a drag on the Russian economy and has led to runaway inflation that outstrips increses in wages, and especially increased prices of food which the average Russian family can’t afford. There is said to be a substantial increase in business and personal bankrupcies, and an increase in “bad” loans that Russians can’t pay back. This is said to have placed enormous strains on the banking system, threatening some banks with collapse. The fall in oi; and gas pricies is said to have hit Russia, hard, because oil and gas sales to foreign countries are and have been a major source of the national income. These anti-Russian or at least anti-Putin sources claim that Russia has been financing the war mainly by using its national wealth fund, which is now much depleted. Some sites claim that the fund may be out of money within a year, making it very difficult for Russia to continue thwar. Many Ukrainians believe that if they can hold on for another year, they may be able to force Russia to end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine.
@Adam
These claims have been renewed every year after they failed to be realized the year before, beginning with the outbreak of the war. Still no riots in Russia. No runs on the banks. And no economic collapse.
In fact, if what you claim in this post were true, Putin would be a far more manageable adversary for Trump than he has proven to be. The simple reality is that the US under Trump, like the US under Biden, is once again pushing Russia into China’s pocket, and this will likely prove to be quite unfortunate for the US if left uncorrected.
The Ukrainians claim that they have slowed the advance of Russian troops into the Donbass and other parts of the Ukraine and have inflicted heavy losses on Russian soldiers, They say the Russians are suffering very heavy casualties, and although they are on the offensive and have the initiative, their progress into Ukrainian territory has been very slow, somewhat like the very slow forward movement of armies in World War I.
At the same time, they say that Ukraine’s civilian population is suffering very badly from the war. Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian sites say that large numbers of Ukrainian civilians have been killed or wounded, most Ukrainian cities have been reduced to rubble, forcing civilians to live in the basements of buildings or in refugee camps. Most Western, mainly British, reporter s in Ukraine confirm these allegations, as do British, American and other diplomats in Kiev. This is why Trump, who was very pro-Russian when the war began, has become disillusioned with Russia and Putin personally. As a result, Trump has threatened the Russians with renewed enforcement of the sanctions, which he has not been enforcing since he took office. He has even threated Russia with adding additional sanctions and/or supporting those instituted by other NATO countries and the EU.
@Adam
This is simply not true, but it is also irrelevant. In fact, the rate of Russian advances have multiplied exponentially over the years, not slowed. See here and here and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgI6JzD3xew.
The analogies to WWI ignore the reality that the lines largely failed to move at all during WWI, and when they did move, it was the Germans, who ultimately lost the war, which lost ground, similar to the Ukrainians are doing today.
Well, we will see how well the sanctions work against Russia this time around. To be certain, Trump is quite effective with using them to his advantage in many aspects beyond economics, but there is no indication that the Russians are concerned about these threats any more now than they have been in the past.
Russia is gaining ground, Ukraine still lacks men, munitions and morale, and Russia’s demands remain unchanged. Perhaps all of this will change in the coming days, but there is no indication of this.
The View from the Ukrainian alternative reality: The Ukrainian English-language sites claim that the Ukrainians are holding their own in the war and their armiy and secret service have inflicted severe damage on Russia. Their latest claim is that they have disabled Aeroflot, the Russian civilian airliner, for months witha cyber attack, making it very difficultfor Russians to travel abroad. They also claim to have destroyed many military airfields and aircraft, storage facilities for oil , gas, and weapons and a major manufacturing plant that produces, armaments. They also claim that they have inflicted so much damage to Russian naval ships that Putin has been forced to cancel the annual Navy Day celebration, in which Russian naval vessels sail by the presidential reviewing stand as well admiring crowds of Russians.
@Adam
Even if we were to take all of these claims as accurate, it must be recognized, once again, that none of these various victories are taking place on the battlefield. As I have noted once before, what is the significance of the attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet? Ukraine doesn’t even have a navy. In fact, the campaign against Russia’s fleet was and is motivated by the interests of Washington, not Ukraine, and yet precious resources are spent by Ukraine to make these gains as they continue to lose ground on the battlefield, as you note yourself in your next post.
This is a pretty convincing discussion which concludes that Trump’s statements about Putin are out of touch with the reality on the ground in Ukraine. Trump does not have the power to threaten Putin with consequences should Putin not end the war in 10 days. The proof of that is that Russia is and has been winning the war militarily, no matter what the US, UK, and EU throw at the war.
In fact, there is no reason for Putin to discuss “ending the war” as long as Putin is winning the war. The people who want to end wars are usually those who are about to be defeated.
Now the West, insofar as it is led by corrupt and criminal cartels which profit no matter who wins or loses, also doesn’t need to stop the war, in fact, the globalist predators who profit from the death of a million or more young men, make more money the more deaths they cause.
Trump is the only one that wants the war to end, because he has said he hates the deaths of all these men to continue.
Zelensky is just a puppet, what he says doesn’t matter because he has no independent role at all in this, he is just the globalist predator puppet whose goal is to keep the war going no matter how insane it is as his country’s “leader.”
Trump has little power and influence on this war, at least that is how it appears at this point. Putin will keep fighting until victory, Zelensky will be made to continue the war, as long as the globalists keep sending him weapons.
Trump is also giving weapons, so it looks hypocritical for him to talk about ending the war, when he is sending in weapons.
There is no deal to be made at this point, and yet Trump still is going through the motions of trying to get to a deal.
Actually I think Trump has made things worse: (unless behind the scenes with Putin they both have agreed on Trump’s policies) Trump has unnecessarily alienated Putin.
On the other hand, since Putin had no real motivation to end the war as long as he’s winning the war, this may be the reason Trump lost trust in him: maybe Trump was naive enough to think Putin would give up his military advantage to compromise with the Ukrainians and the globalists behind them, who have cost Russians so much blood and treasure.
Why should Putin compromise when he is winning?
Why should the globalists stop making profits by killing more young men, as long as they can control things?
The only way Trump would have leverage is if he becomes in control of the CIA, the neocons, and other federal forces that are leading the charge in Ukraine for the benefit of the globalists.
It may be possible. Some think he already is in control of the CIA. I am unsure, as the CIA still has many, many people who are John Brennan’s acolytes, for example. It seems early for Trump to have arrived at operational control of the CIA, if that is something he is planning or if it is even plausible.
The globalists are running the world’s governments illegally, extra-constitutionally, in the case of the US. That doesn’t constrain them or bother them. They believe they have a right to do so.
What we see in the EU, in the UK, and in Ukraine are the signs and symptoms of their operational control.
Putin sees this and knows for sure he doesn’t want this for Russia. If anything, that motivates him all the more to fight until Ukraine is defeated.