Crisis At the Bab Al-Mandeb Straight

Pelon:  The key to the Saudis dealing with the crisis in the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait is thru the coordination with the very nations which Saudi Arabia has recently alienated over the past months.  The US needs to act as a bridge by which these interests come to be perfectly aligned, but without the costs previously demanded by Riyadh including the creation of a second Palestinian state.  The situational cost of having lost control over this vital waterway has placed the Saudis in an impossible situation, but it will only remain impossible so long as they cling to networking with Islamists such as Turkey and Qatar and Somalia in place of Israel, the UAE and Somaliland.   It’s time for Saudi Arabia to make some important changes.

Al Bienfield

Click Image to Enlarge.  Image created by AI

There is a not well-known Asian proverb that says, “Every Problem Brings with It a Gift.” That is particularly true here. These are the important takeaways from the Bab Al-Mandeb Crisis.

1. The Iranian threat is still severe through their proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Their proxies now include the lesser-known threats of pro-Iranian Iraqi militias. The only way to end these threats is regime change in Iran.

2. Despite massive purchases of American weaponry, the Saudis cannot fight.

3. The Mecca agreement for mutual defense between the Saudis, Turks and Pakistanis is worthless.

4. Our President continues to exhibit questionable judgement.

5. Israel is the real power in the Middle East.

A former intelligence officer (Colonel Lawrence Franklin) now retired offered the opinion that the Saudis cannot fight, and this has now been proven. The Houthis have acted aggressively against the Saudis and almost immediately the Saudi Head of State went crying to his American “mommy.” I have observed that on more than one occasion our enemies are smarter than we are. Having the Houthis act on the Bab Al-Mandeb Straight while simultaneously having Iranian sponsored Iraqi militias attack a critical Saudi east-west oil pipeline was an almost brilliant tactic both militarily and politically. [Candor, brutally honest is necessary in serious analysis. You can learn much by observing your enemy.] This crisis has shown our weakness in leadership and possibly militarily. The question now is, will Iranian tactics and overall strategy pay off?

It appears that without American intervention the Houthis will succeed in shutting down the Straight further exacerbating the problem of transporting oil in this volatile region. This will have an adverse impact on energy prices, further eroding the President’s political difficulties at home. We desperately need to have the Saudis move large quantities of oil through alternate avenues of delivery to keep gas prices down. At one time our stated military objective was to be able to fight two wars simultaneously. Obviously, that is no longer the case. To be blunt, the Saudis are truly despicable people. Fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals and despite the 9/11 Commission clearing the government of involvement, I do not buy it. In Russ Baker’s book “Family of Secrets” he examined the close relationship between the Saudis and the Bush family, one that was based on money. The fact that he was never sued argues the point that it was true and that the Bush family loyalty was rooted in financial gain. However, the reality is that if we fail to back up the Saudis, the region’s other Islamic communities will turn further away from America.

There is a solution. It is a one-word solution. It has a name. And the name and answer to the problem is Israel. Forget the Saudi’s Mecca Alliance. It is demonstrably worthless. Their partners (Turkey and Pakistan) will not fight. Either they are afraid and their armies are for show and suppression of their own people, or they are unwilling to confront an Iranian proxy. The answer is probably both, as neither the Turkish nor Pakistani forces have been tested against a real military threat in recent years. However Israeli military might is self-evident.

The President needs to set aside his animus towards the world’s only Jewish State and call on our Israeli allies and end his nightmare in the Middle East. This is also an American nightmare in terms of the loss of life to our servicemen, treasure and prestige in the world. This prestige has a value that is difficult to quantify, but it is there.

The President’s attitude towards Israel is not anti Semitism. It is based on intolerance of anyone who disagrees with him or obstructs his agenda. His primary goal in the Middle East is the redevelopment of Gaza, a potentially 150-billion-dollar project to be administered by the Trump Organization. This was made explicitly clear by his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s presentation at Davos. The profits to be engendered could be as high as 20-30 billion dollars. Likewise, he keeps speaking of a 300-billion-dollar redevelopment fund for Iran when the fighting stops. Again, expect the Trump Organization to be the chosen developer as long as the Regime and their Jihadist philosophy are preserved, pursuant to the wishes of the “Muslim Mafia” leadership in Qatar.

Trump only went after the Iranian nuclear facilities because if he did not, Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear that he would. The potential embarrassment of Israel doing what the United States would not was too much to even contemplate. The real mistake was not finishing the job in 2025 and instead allowing Iran time to rearm.

Any economic strangulation would also mean preventing Turkey, Pakistan, Russia and China circumventing such action. This is an extremely difficult proposition. So, we are brought back to the Bab Al-Mandeb Straight crisis.

On September 14, ISRAPUNDIT posted a piece by Ambassador Alberto M. Fernandez, wherein he referenced MEMRI’s Anna Mahler-Barducci’s analysis of the Bab Al-Mandeb situation. While I basically agree with them, we need to understand that Washington as they referred to Trump, is very unlikely to do the right thing.

Referencing a September 13 report from the Financial Times by Andrew England, President Trump’s lack of knowledge (and other factors) makes him unwilling to do the right thing. I am certainly not pro-Iran, but they operate as though they have read and re-read the 500-B.C. classic on the Art of War by Sun Tzu. They utilize the tools at their disposal as best they can, the geography and know how to wreck alliances. Iraqi militias are under their influence as well as their proxies like the Houthis. Our President is completely unable to understand the Jihadi mindset and how they operate. The pro-Iran Iraqi militias have been emboldened by the Iranian success at resisting America’s massive military assault. Their martyrdom inspires them to do likewise. We are looking at a modern version of Imperial Japan’s Samurai/Kamikaze soldiers of WWII.

Iraqi Iranian aligned forces have coordinated for years with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. They have been armed and trained by them as well as further indoctrinated into the desired mindset to oppose American interests. Remember in 2023 they said, “Death to America was not a slogan, but their Policy.” The idea that they can be stopped short of destruction is absurd. American leadership in the post 9/11 world has been an epic failure.

The Bab Al-Mandeb straight situation requires more than America alone can muster at this point. The President needs to set aside personal feelings and reach out to Bibi. It is in America’s best interests. The faster he resolves the Iran situation, the faster his political problems at home go away.

If I could advise Israel’s Prime Minister, I would suggest that he proceed to liberate the Bab Al-Mandeb Straight, as it is also an Israeli problem. In fact, the Jewish State is still at war with the Houthis. Israel enjoys good relations with Ethiopia (there are 175,000 Ethiopian Jews in Israel today) and certainly with Somaliland as well as the UAE. Such an action is necessary in the current situation and as a reminder to Erdogan and others who the real power in the Middle East is. Turkish expansion of influence in Somalia is a major threat to Middle Eastern stability. President Trump’s endorsement of Erdogan’s ambitions makes no rational sense.

The President will be hard pressed to object to a Horn of Africa Alliance committed to and acting to keep a vital waterway like the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait open. A coalition of Israel, Somaliland, Ethiopia and the UAE would be similar to the Mediterranean Alliance comprising Israel, Greece and Cypress. It will additionally help to check Erdogan’s African ambitions. Such a coalition could help facilitate recognition of Somaliland. This is in everyone’s best interests, even if they do not know it.

America and Israel need to recognize that the exposure of Saudi weakness invites overthrow of MBS’ government. The threat comes from a variety of sources, both internal and external. Excepting Qatar and Turkey does anyone really want the Muslim Brotherhood taking over?

The Prime Minister is certainly more knowledgeable and capable than I am. He is the man I most admire in the world. But maybe, just maybe I might be right. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.