David Wurmser: Syrian Government–Kurdish Forces Pact May Not Hold as Underlying Interests Incompatible

Peloni:  David Wurmser explains that the recent agreement signed between the Kurds and Syria are an example of efforts to deal with the reality that many forces in Syria are preparing for a future conflict, but are not yet prepared for that conflict, thus requiring temporary agreements while the preparations  for war progress.  He warns that the viability of these deals, are however unlikely to be sustainable due to the mutually exclusive nature of the relative interests, ie Jihadi forces vs those who would be subjugated by the Jihadi forces.  Wurmser also indicates it will be important to watch the Christian and Druze communities, and how they come to assess their prospects while allying with either Israel or Syria.  Noting that Syria is more hostile and Israel is more friendly, Wurmser notes that the minorities need to determine to what degree they might be able to trust and rely upon any commitments which are being made to them, such as the Israeli commitment to support the Kurds in Southern Syria.  He explains that the determination of how these communities weather the political situation in Syria will ultimately determine if Syria remains a state or if it will break apart into segments along ethic lines of division.