Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger | “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative” | March 11, 2026
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*The uprooting of the Ayatollah regime, which has been, since 1979, a chief epicenter of anti-US terrorism, civil wars, drug trafficking and money laundering in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and US soil, is a prerequisite to ending wars.
*While regime-change entails cost, it would be dwarfed by the following cost of shying away from regime-change:
<Refraining from regime-change in Iran – which uproots and disavows the Ayatollah ideology educationally, constitutionally, politically and militarily – would severely erode the US posture of deterrence, irrespective of US victory pronouncements, and notwithstanding opinion expressed by the “elite media,” which has been systematically at odds with Middle East reality, in general, and the Ayatollah regime, in particular.
<The failure to realize a thorough regime-change would embolden China (in the Pacific Basin, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East), Russia (in the Baltic region and East Europe) and Turkey (Erdogan’s vision to resurrect the Ottoman Empire), eroding the state of the US economy and national and homeland security.
<Abandoning the goal of a thorough regime-change would be perceived, by rogue entities in the Middle East and beyond, as a dramatic victory by intransigent Islamic terrorists over the supposedly non-Churchillian USA.
<Retreating from the commitment to a thorough regime-change would be perceived as hesitation and weakness in the face of the Ayatollah regime, and as an inability to sustain blood, sweat and tears commitments.
<Surrendering the goal of regime-change, would reflect a “sprinter” state-of-mind, rather than a “marathon runner” state-of-mind. The latter is a prerequisite in the battle against the “marathon running” apocalyptic Shiite Islamic terrorism.
<Abandoning regime-change would yield a robust tailwind to anti-US Islamic terrorism on US soil, as well as around the globe, dwarfing the 2001 September 11, the 1993 World Trade Center car bombing, the 2009 Ft. Hood slaughter, the 2015 San Bernardino massacre and the 2016 Orlando nightclub bloodbath.
<The reluctance to sustain critical geo-strategic commitment in the face of the Ayatollah regime would intensify the lethal threats to all pro-US Arab regimes, especially the oil-producing regimes, which control much of the Persian Gulf oil. Erosion of the US posture of deterrence would drive the pro-US Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain and probably Kuwait, Oman and Morocco closer to China and Russia.
<The reluctance to achieve regime-change in Iran, coupled with the West European’s frail reaction to the war on the Ayatollah regime – attributed also to the bolstered clout of Islamic constituents in Europe – would intensify Islamic terrorism against the “infidel” Europeans, simultaneously with the expansion of the Islamic foothold in the US.
<Eschewing the commitment to regime-change would deal a blow to the Abraham Accords, disincentivizing Muslim countries to join.
<Aborting regime-change would betray most Iranians – who covet the end of the Ayatollah regime – leaving them hanging high and dry and betrayed in a more frustrating manner than 2009 and 2022.
<The failure to engineer regime-change would pave the road to the first ever apocalyptic nuclear power, resulting in catastrophic cost to humanity, and dwarfing the highest cost attributed to regime-change.
*On the other hand, regime-change – ideologically, constitutionally, educationally, politically and militarily – would trigger positive game-changing ripple effects: bolstering the US posture of deterrence; eroding the strategic posture of China and Russia; constraining Erdogan’s imperialistic ambition; clipping the wings of Sunni and Shiite Islamic terrorism; boosting the US homeland security; enhancing the stability of all pro-US Arab regimes and their cooperation with the US; expanding the scope of the Abraham Accords (especially Iran), reducing the threat of a nuclear war, advancing the goal of ending/minimizing wars and terrorism; and freeing the Iranian population from the Ayatollah regime, which has been the role model of despotic, oppressive, intolerant and terroristic regime.
Can the US afford to refrain from regime-change in Iran?!
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