T. Belman. Going up against this prediction is scary. But I am glad to say that there are many reasons to be optimistic.
Historian whose election model predicted Trump’s 2016 win, then called for his impeachment, now predicts Trump will lose to Biden.
Arutz Sheva Staff
One of the few political prognosticators whose election model correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 presidential election now says that President Donald Trump will be defeated this November – adding that there’s not much Trump can do about it.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor from American University in Washington, has employed a unique prediction model for presidential elections, going back to 1984.
The model, which was developed in the 1980s, has accurately predicted the results of every election since Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection.
In 2016, Lichtman’s model was one of only a handful which predicted a Trump win.
And up to late 2019, the system, dubbed the “keys to the White House” model, projected Trump would win reelection.
But in an interview with on the Galei Tzahal program “Boker Tov Yisrael” with Efi Triger, Lichtman said that the race has now shifted decisively in Joe Biden’s favor.
“My prediction is that Donald Trump, the incumbent president will lose his bid for reelection.”
Lichtman’s model lays out thirteen key factors or “keys to the White House” which can be used to determine which candidate will win.
The keys include the presidential incumbent party’s performance in the midterm elections for the House of Representatives, whether there is a serious primary challenge to the incumbent president, if there is an incumbent president running for reelection, whether there is a major third party challenge, long-term and short-term economic conditions, etc.
If six of the thirteen “keys” turn against an incumbent president, he or she is likely to lose the election.
“If six or more of these keys go against the party holding the White House, they are predicted losers.”
“As of late 2019, Donald Trump, the president, was down only four keys. But then, of course, America was hit with the crises of the pandemic and calls for social justice.”
“So Donald Trump went from four keys down to seven keys down. Never, in the history of the United States, has there ever been such a dramatic and sudden reversal of fortune for the party holding the White House.”
“I think it is an important pick, because after all, Joe Biden will be 78 and he needs to pick someone who the American people believe can step into the presidency. But in terms of turning the election, no.”
A Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for the party’s nomination in the 2006 US Senate race in Maryland, Lichtman has been a vocal critic of President Trump, and in 2017 published The Case for Impeachment, in which he both predicts and advocates for the removal of Trump from office.
While Lichtman’s model strongly suggests Biden will carry the election, another model which correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win gives Trump a 91% chance of being reelected.
The Primary Model, developed by Stony Brook University political scientist Helmut Norpoth, is based on data from every presidential election going back to the election of 1912, and has correctly predicted five of the six elections from 1996 to 2016.