Expert who predicted Trump’s 2016 win now says he’ll lose

T. Belman.  Going up against this prediction is scary. But I am glad to say that there are many reasons to be optimistic.

Historian whose election model predicted Trump’s 2016 win, then called for his impeachment, now predicts Trump will lose to Biden.

Arutz Sheva Staff

President Trump

One of the few political prognosticators whose election model correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 presidential election now says that President Donald Trump will be defeated this November – adding that there’s not much Trump can do about it.

Allan Lichtman, a history professor from American University in Washington, has employed a unique prediction model for presidential elections, going back to 1984.

The model, which was developed in the 1980s, has accurately predicted the results of every election since Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection.

In 2016, Lichtman’s model was one of only a handful which predicted a Trump win.

And up to late 2019, the system, dubbed the “keys to the White House” model, projected Trump would win reelection.

But in an interview with on the Galei Tzahal program “Boker Tov Yisrael” with Efi Triger, Lichtman said that the race has now shifted decisively in Joe Biden’s favor.

“My prediction is that Donald Trump, the incumbent president will lose his bid for reelection.”

Lichtman’s model lays out thirteen key factors or “keys to the White House” which can be used to determine which candidate will win.

The keys include the presidential incumbent party’s performance in the midterm elections for the House of Representatives, whether there is a serious primary challenge to the incumbent president, if there is an incumbent president running for reelection, whether there is a major third party challenge, long-term and short-term economic conditions, etc.

If six of the thirteen “keys” turn against an incumbent president, he or she is likely to lose the election.

“If six or more of these keys go against the party holding the White House, they are predicted losers.”

“As of late 2019, Donald Trump, the president, was down only four keys. But then, of course, America was hit with the crises of the pandemic and calls for social justice.”

“So Donald Trump went from four keys down to seven keys down. Never, in the history of the United States, has there ever been such a dramatic and sudden reversal of fortune for the party holding the White House.”

“I think it is an important pick, because after all, Joe Biden will be 78 and he needs to pick someone who the American people believe can step into the presidency. But in terms of turning the election, no.”

A Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for the party’s nomination in the 2006 US Senate race in Maryland, Lichtman has been a vocal critic of President Trump, and in 2017 published The Case for Impeachment, in which he both predicts and advocates for the removal of Trump from office.

While Lichtman’s model strongly suggests Biden will carry the election, another model which correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win gives Trump a 91% chance of being reelected.

The Primary Model, developed by Stony Brook University political scientist Helmut Norpoth, is based on data from every presidential election going back to the election of 1912, and has correctly predicted five of the six elections from 1996 to 2016.

August 12, 2020 | 16 Comments » | 671 views

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16 Comments / 16 Comments

  1. In my analysis if the election were today Trump would probably loose. The pandemic and the economic fallout, protests, riots all do not work in his favor.

    That said Trump needs to kill Biden in the debates (especially the first and last one). He must show him for the bumbling fool he is! If Biden comes out of the debates holding his own plus the economic situation with 16 million unemployed continues Trump has a problem.

    Trump can still win but currently he looks behind in some of the key swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania that he won last time and must win!

  2. This is election will be extra hard to forecast because of Covid-19. How many people will actually go to the polls or make sure mail their ballots.

    Also as last time many people will not want to say they are for Trump to pollsters. Once pollster who had Trump winning (barely about 2 weeks ago) said the traditional way of polling is not valid. Most pollsters he said rely on gathering names of those polled. He said this makes for a less likely truthful answer. The indirect question of asking who you neighbor is voting is likely to obtain a more truthful answer. Also way to many pollster rely on registered voters instead of likely voters.

  3. White House Watch (Rasmussen a GOP Pollster with a very good track record)
    Biden Lengthens Lead

    Wednesday, August 12, 2020

    Hot on the heels of announcing Kamala Harris as his running mate, likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden has taken a six-point lead over President Trump in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey.

    The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 49% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while another four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    A week ago, Biden had a 48% to 45% advantage. The former vice president has led Trump in every weekly survey to date.

  4. “A Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for the party’s nomination in the 2006 US Senate race in Maryland, Lichtman has been a vocal critic of President Trump, and in 2017 published The Case for Impeachment, in which he both predicts and advocates for the removal of Trump from office.” Seriously? We’re supposed to believe a guy who wants him removed from office……… it.

  5. “A Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for the party’s nomination in the 2006 US Senate race in Maryland, Lichtman has been a vocal critic of President Trump, and in 2017 publishe”d The Case for Impeachment, in which he both predicts and advocates for the removal of Trump from office.” Seriously? We’re supposed to believe a guy who wants him removed from office……… it.

  6. Predictions, Polls, reflect the preditor’s and the pollster’s wishful thinking. Forward march, TRUMP!

  7. LOL! So Lichtman, a critic of President Trump, predicts he will lose in 2020? Lichtman can now stand in line with all the wishful pollsters who predicted Trump would lose in 2016. The majority of American voters believe in law and order, not anarchy. They will cast their votes for President Trump even if they never supported him in 2016. The United States of America is under attack from the radical leftist Democrats and their globalist handlers. Law abiding citizens in the U.S. are still the majority, regardless of color. America does not want the socialism or the globalism that radical leftist Democrats are selling. They want law, order, and a constitutional republic. Time will tell.

  8. If this guy called for Trump’s impeachmen, he is obviously bised against him. And bias affects predictions.

    The real danger is that there will be so many dirty tricks and violence in the campaign, followed by numerous contested ballots and a very slow vote count, that it may take months for Congress and/or the Supreme Court to declare a winner. Since the losing party is extremly unlikely to accept the result, there may then be a civil war.

    The huge increase in gun sales, and the creation of an apparently disciplined , armed black militia in Georgis that has conducted demonstrations in other states, is an o minous sign. So is the by-now chronic rioting in several major cities, the massive outbreak of hostility to the police, the burning down of police stations and other public buildings. The problem then is not who will win, but that there will be no clear. generally acknowledged winner, and hence total chaos. I am scared of this possibilty.

  9. @ Bear Klein: The 3 to 4 per cent who say they prefer a third party candidate could be the key. Whether they will remain with a thid party candidate (The Libertarians? The Greens?) or will instead one of the two major candidates will be important. Will the largest third-party vote go to the Libertarians or the Greens?

    Also important, what is the state-by-state breakdown of the vote? Biden could end up with a six point lead in the over-all popular vote and still lose the election. Finally, what about the voters hang up as soon as they hear from someone who claims to be taking a poll. I suspect the people who are suspicious when they receive unsolicited phone calls from strangers are mainly conservatives. And what about the people who don’t own a phone, or have unlisted cell phones? On balance, aface-to-face poll (whering masks) is likelto be more accurate than a telephone poll in this environment.

  10. @ Adam Dalgliesh:
    Trump is behind in State polling in many swing states he carried last time that he needs to win including Florida, PA, WI, MI. Whether this is accurate during actual voting (it is no longer just election day as many more than voters will cast ballots via mail) we will find out.

    Trump has a problem but according to he still has about a 30% chance to win.

    If the economy improves by election time, that will help Trump. Hopefully it will.

    See the latest polls here:

  11. Biden will come out of hiding.
    The whole country will realize that he is a senile idiot.
    They won’t vote for him.

  12. CALM DOWN.
    THE REAL RULERS will pick the winner.
    HINT: by “the real rulers” I don’t mean “we the people”.
    In general, if there is a huge mess, I don’t think the same person will be chosen to clear the mess regardless of why it occurred or who caused it.

  13. @ vivarto:
    Kamala Harris will be the one governing and the dems are buying her phony political image and identity politics because they don’t read or watch anything but the mainstream media or think very deeply about anything except for the occasional wacky conspiracy theory. They understand that Biden is an empty suit but they don’t really care. They just figure the dems will govern by committee. And they really hate Trump. They don’t even know why. They are ready to believe the worst anybody will conjure up. The country is split down the middle and the election will be determined by a small number of people in different constituencies who can go either way either by voting or by staying home. It’s been like that for a long time.

  14. Interesting and qualified conservative pollster Larry Sabato currently has 268 electoral college seats going to Biden. 270 Seats are needed to win the election.

    There 66 Toss Up Seats in the States of Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin. So for Trump to Win he needs to win all of these States which is possible.

    See his map it is very interesting.

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