Is a military strike on Iran imminent?

The G8 thinks Israel will do it

By Robin Shepherd

Silvio Berlusconi, prime minister of Italy, is an unconventional politician and he is difficult to predict. But even Berlusconi is surely too well versed in the customs of international diplomacy to make predictions about Israel attacking Iran without very good grounds for doing so. On the sidelines of the G8* summit in Canada on Saturday he said the following:

    “Iran is not guaranteeing a peaceful production of nuclear power [so] the members of the G-8 are worried and believe absolutely that Israel will probably react pre-emptively.”


Unless Berlusconi is being completely irresponsible, this sounds like a warning that something may be imminent. It is also worth noting that Berlusconi’s remarks came the day before CIA director Leon Panetta said Iran probably has enough uranium to build two nuclear weapons within the next two years.

It is highly unlikely that Panetta would have gone public on such a sensitive issue for no good reason. The same goes for Berlusconi. So, my guess as to what is going on is as follows: Either Israel is about to attack Iran and all of this is designed to prepare the world for what is coming; Or, this is a last ditch attempt to frighten the Iranians into compliance by explicitly putting the imminent use of force on the table.

Obviously, I have no inside track on what is going on. But you don’t need a sixth sense to recognise that something significant is afoot.

* The G8 is made up of the following countries: The United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Canada.

June 28, 2010 | 8 Comments »

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8 Comments / 8 Comments

  1. Debkafile reports an ever increasing massing of American naval vessels around Iran, implying an imminent strike.

    if that is the Debkafile from yesterday about the USS Nassau, Debka is overstating the US naval presence near Iran. The Nassau group of three is what peeled off from the Truman to deal with anti-piracy, and the Truman, according to the Navy News, now has six remaining ships, is on schedule to relieve the USS Eisenhower. The good news is the Nassau has helicopters which would make for a nice landing on any Iranian ship that needs inspection, and I do not think US Marines will be carrying paintball guns. The Eisenhower’s home port is Norfolk, Virginia, which would mean another transit through the Suez into the Med over the next few weeeks.

    Connect enough dots, and something can happen, which would NOT require an Israeli pre-emptive strike. And any US action will be in defense of Saudia Arabia and Bahrain, or maybe Iraqi Kurdistan.

  2. So will Obama attack Iran?

    Debkafile reports an ever increasing massing of American naval vessels around Iran, implying an imminent strike.

    My original analysis is that Obama would never attack Iran, and wanted Iran and Israel to fight each other.

    But Obama and his advisors are both smart and somewhat flexible, and they adjust to changing circumstances.
    In the new analysis, Obama might indeed attack Iran:
    1. It is relatively easy for America to use its air and naval power to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and few if any American lives will be lost.
    2. An easy victory in Iran will make Obama and the Democrats look strong and decisive going into the November elections, instead of weak and wimpy, and will reverse the perception that Obama is anti-American and pro-muslim.
    3. Quid pro quo: if Obama defeats Iran, then he will be in a very strong position to demand that Israel make concessions for “peace”. (Remember that it is only Jewish Israel which must make dangerous concessions for peace, since their savage muslim “peace partners” have “already given up too much”).

  3. I think that BB will attack iran. It rained the last days in Jerusalem. The Sages said in Massekhet Ta’anit (2b)

    Yatsa Nisan WeYaredu Geshamim Siman Qelala Hem – Rain after the month of Nissan is a sign of curse

    Since when is destroying our enemies ability to mass kill us a curse?

    It has rained after the month of Nissan before, can you name the curses they brought?

    Enough of such nonsense.

  4. Postscript: The importance of interoperability was brought home several decades ago when an Israeli helicopter pilot was faced with a mechanical failure on his craft. As he was examining his options for ditching, he spotted an American aircraft carrier and decided to land his helicopter on the deck. As he got out of the aircraft, the fuming American captain charged and screamed at the chopper pilot, “How could you do that? How can you just land on my ship?!” The Israeli (who confirmed the story for me) responded, “I thought it was one of ours.” Sphere: Related Content

  5. what is Israel going to do about all those tens of thousands of missiles aimed at them that will be fired
    in either one large volley or many firings over several days…

    with G-d’s help we shall witness His glorious Response soon

  6. Considering a couple of things – after the last couple of military operations, Israel’s governmental leadership seems a bit soft
    and another thing – what is Israel going to do about all those tens of thousands of missiles aimed at them that will be fired
    in either one large volley or many firings over several days… again, going back to the leadership thing, anyone there have what
    it takes to actually DO this?

  7. I think that BB will attack iran. It rained the last days in Jerusalem. The Sages said in Massekhet Ta’anit (2b)

    Yatsa Nisan WeYaredu Geshamim Siman Qelala Hem – Rain after the month of Nissan is a sign of curse

  8. Netanyahu capitulates on national security…again

    Faced with international criticism over the Mabhouh hit, Netanyahu does not plan to extend Meir Dagan’s term as the head of Mossad.

    Dagan was the driving force behind Mossad’s operations against Iran. He managed to shake up the famed intelligence service, which since the 1980s had become heavily bureaucratized and lost its trademark emphasis on the human factor over signal intelligence.

    Ousting Dagan is odd at a time when Netanyahu clearly plans to attack Iran, and apparently has gotten Obama’s tentative agreement.

    Hmmm does this sound like BB will attack Iran?