The US is suddenly competing for influence over its most stalwart ally in the Middle East.
CAIRO, Egypt — The United States is suddenly competing for influence over its most stalwart ally in the Middle East.
Newly elected Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, charting a fresh course for the country both at home and abroad, chose Beijing for his first official visit outside the Middle East and Africa last week. He traveled with a battalion of businessmen and shored up unprecedented financial and political support from Chinese leader, Hu Jintao, including large-scale investments in infrastructure.
Following the high-profile, three-day visit, the Obama administration intensified efforts to relieve Egypt’s debt, including throwing its weight behind a $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
As Morsi recalibrates Egypt’s foreign policy — seeking “balance,” his advisers have said, and reaching out to US foes — he is attempting to relieve Egypt’s crippled economy, which has failed to rebound from its post-uprising slump.
China is now in a unique position to usurp the United States in the role of Egypt’s benefactor.
“Our relations with China will increase, because our new government has some doubts about the West,” said Mohamed Kadry Said, military analyst at the Cairo-based Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
Indeed, for 30 years the US openly supported the dictatorial regime of former President Hosni Mubarak, which for decades persecuted the Muslim Brotherhood group to which Morsi belongs.
In November 2010, an opinion poll released by the Pew Research Center showed 52 percent of Egyptians held a favorable view of China, while just 17 percent of Egyptians held a favorable view of the United States.
Unfazed by political instability or concerns for human rights — unlike the United States, which still holds some reservations of the Morsi government — China has the money, the power, the will and the weaponry to rival American influence in Egypt.
“We are looking to China as a strong power not only in Asia, but also in Africa,” Said said, referring to China’s billions in trade and investment on the continent. “And this relationship will force the US to focus more carefully on what is happening in Egypt.”
The US remains Egypt’s largest donor, with both economic and military aid topping $1.3 billion. But China, long a bystander in the Middle East, is making inroads into both the economic and security sectors at a rapid pace.
In addition to signing on to build a power station, a water desalination plant and a high-speed train line between Cairo and Egypt’s second city, Alexandria — all last week — China has roughly $500 million in previous investments in Egypt.
Those investments were made during the Mubarak era, which embarked on trade ties with China but kept relations to a minimum under US financial and military patronage.
When Egypt’s popular revolt in 2011 and subsequent political turmoil spooked other investors, Chinese companies stayed behind, investing in affordable goods like clothes and cheap electronics.
With nearly 85 million people, Egypt is a lucrative consumer market for cheap Chinese goods. And in 2011, Chinese commodities exports to Egypt hit $7.28 billion, beating out US exports to Egypt at $6.18 billion, according to United Nations trade data.
“Chinese investment has catered to consumption [in Egypt], the one thing that remained resilient throughout the revolution and aftermath,” said an Egyptian economist who wished to remain anonymous.
As the US economy struggles to recover, and Europe — Egypt’s premier trading partner — faces its own economic crisis, China is flush with cash and a resilient export sector.
Egypt lacks the vast energy resources that have spurred mammoth Chinese investment elsewhere in the continent, including in Libya and Angola. But analysts say in addition to its profitable consumption market, Egypt offers China access — and leverage — to other nearby countries.
Fresh Chinese contributions to Egypt’s economy, which sits at the heart of the Arab world, will likely buy political goodwill in the region, where support for China is waning for its backing of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
China can also use Egypt’s Suez Canal to sail warships in the Mediterranean and Black Seas, where it also holds investments, challenging the preferential, expedited treatment US warships now receive when traversing the channel.
According to a study by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, China sold more weapons to Egypt than Sudan and Zimbabwe — its traditional clients — combined, from 1989 to 2008, making Egypt China’s biggest weapons market in Africa.
The study says US military assistance to Egypt frees up cash for Egypt’s government to purchase additional Chinese arms. And some analysts are worried that increased Chinese presence in Egypt, coupled with a Morsi government less loyal to the United States, will give China access to American military technology.
According to a 2009 US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks, US officials were already concerned about Egypt’s Arms Export Control Act violations, stating they had “more violations than any country in the world.” The cable said a Chinese military official visited an Egyptian aircraft base in 2009, where F-16 fighter jets provided by the United States are held.
“The military aspect of our relationship [with China] is very strong,” said Said, the military analyst.
“Egypt is a key for any country who wants to reach Africa, or the Middle East or Europe,” he said. “A country like China can depend on a country like Egypt.”
My thoughts exactly!!!
@ CuriousAmerican:
This I sort of Agree with. Buy them out … with real money and passports to other countries, as Dr. Martin Sherman, formerly of Tel Aviv University suggested.
As for the Arabs west of the Green line … I have an odd view.
Your chief opponents are Muslims. Christians on both sides of the Green Line should be offered enfranchisement. There are some hostile Christians I know. But, in the large part, Christians are not your enemies. Even during the Arab revolt, they were grossly underrepresented during the revolt.
They certainly are not suicide bombers.
@ CuriousAmerican:
Problem is Arab hate. Not the “Palestinians”.
Prominent Israeli historian Benny Morris, life-long supporter of the “Palestinians”, has somewhat come to his senses in the last few years.
Referring to his book “One State – Two States”, he said:
“I want to open readers’ eyes to the truth. My goal is to expose the goals of the Palestinian national movement – to wipe out the Jewish national enterprise and to take possession of all of Palestine for the sake of the Arabs and Islam.
“There is no difference in that regard between the Islamist Hamas terrorist group and the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian movement – both of its heads, the fundamentalist led by Hamas and the secular led by Fatah – is ultimately interested in Muslim sovereignty over the entire land of Israel, with no Jewish state and no division.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/159761
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Yes, the issue of the Arabs living on both sides of the Green Line must be resolved. But not for the sake of “Peace” – there will never be real peace in the Middle East – but for Israel’s own survival as a Jewish state. Nothing less.
And it must be done in a way that breaks with the double standard being applied by the “international community” to modern Israel since its inception.
@ CuriousAmerican:
Since I am a veteran soldier of the IDF and a former Senior-Fellow Engineer, Military Avionics, US DoD Programs as well as an Invited Consultant to the Israeli MoD, I say the following with some solid material to back it.
The Arab interlopers will be removed all right, but not along the lines you keep on trying to sell, Curious.
I will not go into details but I assure you that we do not need to return anything to the US from Dimona since it was never theirs.
I was invited to the Trinity Site, on the 4th of July of 1992. I was then working on some things at Sandia Labs… I know a tad about nuclear weapons Curious.
Israel will not hesitate to attend to anyone passing certain nuclear arms points of reference regardless of who that anyone is.
To start. The US by orders signed by Obama and Gates has re stationed at a Turkish AFB, called INCIRLIK, 90 B 6 1 nuclear bombs.
I strongly advise for you to concentrate on having those puppies removed. Yesterday.
If it does not apply do Dimona, yes it can.
With over 300 nukes, Israel does not need more.
The Arabs are going to get nukes one day. They might just buy one from North Korea or Pakistan. What will you do then?
It would take hundreds of nukes to destory Araby. Only 2 or 3 are needed to get rid of Israel.
Israel needs to solve its Palestinian problem soon. Get the Palestinians out of the world headlines.
Something momentous happened when China and Russia prevented the US from directly intervening in Syria.
An instant image of a helpless Israel flashed before me. A day when Arab countries will be even more emboldened against Israel thanks to China’s and Russia’s support. A day when the Nazi State of Palestine will feel free to carry out attacks against Israel without fear of retaliation.
Even if the US wanted to intervene, they would not consider Israel worth their while to risk igniting a war with the Russian and Chinese superpowers. And they would demand that Israel hold back their fire and make concessions instead. (There’s some precedent for such US attitude.) Or surrender altogether in exchange for safe rescue of Jewish refugees.
It wouldn’t hurt for Israel to increase its nuclear arsenal. Can it still do it?
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“Israel has now joined the ranks of the failing Eastern European states which have delivered their enriched uranium to the US. Over the years, the White House forced them to abandon their nuclear stocks, which were mostly depleted uranium from power plants.”
http://samsonblinded.org/news/the-white-house-controls-israeli-nuclear-program-22546
“Head of Israel’s Nuclear Energy Commission Shaul Horev says Tel Aviv has returned nuclear waste (uranium) from its Sorek nuclear reactor to the United States…. The agreement with the US does not apply to the Dimona nuclear reactor, where international sources believe Israel produces fissile material from uranium and makes plutonium for stockpile of nuclear weapons, and waste from Dimona is not being returned to the US.”
http://www.eutimes.net/2011/06/israel-returns-nuclear-waste-to-us/
I also found that statement disturbing.
The secret is now out Egypt is the US most stalwart ally and Israel is just chopped liver.
There is a deeper message somewhere in the above statement.
Let any country which wants to deal with the Arabs have them.
China has had a run of good luck.
After 10 or so years dealing with Muslims, China will be incapable, insane, and in debt.
Come home, America. Let the Chinese have Egypt.