Is the Obama Administration Leaking Israeli Attack Plans?

If that wasn’t enough, today Foreign Policy, a publication of the Washington Post Group floated a story,  “IIsrael’s Secret Staging Ground”  by Middle East analyst, Mark Perry. It was  about an alleged  deal between Azerbaijan and Israel that would give the latter airfield landing rights for a possible attack against Iran. Azerbaijan, which lies to the northwest of Iran on the Caspian Sea, is an oil rich former Soviet era republic, now a Sunni Muslim country. It has good trading and security relations with Israel. Moreover, Azerbaijan leaders have abiding geo-political concern about Azeri brethren in the adjacent Iranian province.  The possible Israeli-Azerbaijan connection on any pre-emptive strike has been speculated upon  for several weeks.

.

However, yesterday’s Foreign Policy report appeared to be staged to coincide with a series of media reports critical of Israel’s  possible pre-emptive attack plans. Note this comment from the Foreign Policy report that has raised US intelligence community and Obama Administration concerns about what is behind this development:

“We’re watching what Iran does closely,” one of the U.S. sources, an intelligence officer engaged in assessing the ramifications of a prospective Israeli attack confirmed. “But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.”

Israel’s deepening relationship with the Baku government was cemented in February by a $1.6 billion arms agreement that provides Azerbaijan with sophisticated drones and missile-defense systems. At the same time, Baku’s ties with Tehran have frayed: Iran presented a note to Azerbaijan’s ambassador last month claiming that Baku has supported Israeli-trained assassination squads targeting Iranian scientists, an accusation the Azeri government called “a slander.”

In February, a member of Yeni Azerbadzhan — the ruling party — called on the government to change the country’s name to “North Azerbaijan,” implicitly suggesting that the 16 million Azeris who live in northern Iran (“South Azerbaijan”) are in need of liberation.

Former US Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, a long term critic of the Obama Administration dealings with Islamic Republic over its nuclear program, said floating the Azerbaijani- connection was duplicitous endangering Israel’s security.

In a Fox News report, Bolton accused the Obama Administration of leaking the story to foil Israel’s covert operations on Iran’s border.  Bolton noted:

“I think this leak today is part of the administration’s campaign against an Israeli attack”.

The White House did not respond to Bolton’s claims Thursday.

Bolton, a Fox News contributor, noted that a strike launched from Azerbaijan would be much easier for the Israelis than a strike launched from their own country — jets could stay over their targets longer and worry less about refueling. But he said tipping the Israelis’ hand by revealing “very sensitive, very important information” could frustrate such a plan.

If we follow these two news account they may  portray an Administration in Washington desperate to scuttle an effective Israeli attack scenario that as Ambassador Bolton said would be potentially more effective than thought possible heretofore.

This  may have been perpetrated by both the Islamic Regime’s Washington lobbyist Trita Parsi of National Iranian American Council , Obama NSC Advisers and the US Intelligence community who may want to delay any Israeli assault against Iran’s vulnerable weaponization facilities. In Jerusalem that opportunity and the window to achieve it is rapidly closing. Moreover, who can trust the comments of ElBaradei, who for years downplayed Iran’s weaponization program, only to be upstaged by the November 2011 IAEA reports.

The Reuters piece is nothing more than a furtherance of the Obama West Wing line of to give sanctions a chance to cajole the Islamic Republic into more fruitless jaw boning with Shia Mahdists intent on completing a nearly thirty year effort on the nuclear project. A project that ironically began under the late Shah. The Administration is eager to let theP5+1 talks scheduled for April 13^th proceed with Iran.  A gambit that the Islamic Republic leaders probably laugh at in private giving them space to push ahead to achieve checkmate against international sanction efforts to stop their weaponization and delivery programs.

Notwithstanding today’s revelations about a possible Azerbaijan base to launch an attack against Iranian facilities, Israel believes that a window of opportunity is about to close. The Azerbaijani connection makes the Israel attack more plausible thus clearly upset the plans of their neighbors in Iran

In the meantime, Israel and its allies in the Congress should press the Administration about implementing the existing authorized gasoline moratorium that might cripple the already tottering Iranian economy to foster a groundswell of internal support for regime change. The embargo against Iran oil exports has already had some effect this month as reflected by a drop of such sales in the world markets by an estimated 14 percent. The implementation of the ban by SWIFT against using its international wire transfer system for oil payments has also played a part.

Nevertheless, it is now time to implement the long authorized gasoline moratorium that US Sen. Mark Kirk, recovering from his unfortunate stroke, might lead in a bi-partisan effort given his track record in the House and now  the Senate.  That effort forced both the Bush and Obama Administrations to implement more effective sanctions.

However, in the end, Israel will still have to undertake its own version of a military strike.  What passes for the moribund opposition inside the Islamic Republic, the remnants of the Green Movement, supports an annihilationist agenda towards the Jewish State and wants to become the second Islamic nuclear arsenal after Pakistan. There are few prospects for replacing the Mahdists in Tehran with a secular regime as the US and others in the West have never invested time and money in fostering a suitable replacement. That would include the irredentist objectives of Iran’s minority groups such as the Kurds, Azeris and Baluchis. Thus, the Reuters article only deepens the myopic view that appeasement of the Mahdists in Tehran will get Obama re-elected.

The Foreign Policy article on the possible Azerbaijani role providing Israel with airfields and refueling facilities increases the likelihood of success for the Israeli military option.  Further, it might give rise to Azeri irredentism in the adjacent Iranian province destabilizing the Islamic regime. Jerusalem knows this as do many outside the Obama West Wing in Washington and even  Riyadh. Thus this untoward leak harbors a game changer strategy by the Israelis, something that upstages the Obama Administration election campaign and may reinforce Israel’s security as a wedge issue.