Peloni: See also American last-ditch effort to stop Knesset dissolution & new elections
Recent poll sees former PM Naftali Bennett as leading candidate to replace Netanyahu
Israeli Knesset in 2021. Photo by Kobi Gideon / Government Press Office of Israel, CC BY-SA 3.0
With the government seemingly about to fall apart after an unusually long run, particularly amid the ongoing war, Israel’s political class is gearing up for new elections, which could be declared in the coming days and be set for the end of this year.
On Monday, a spokesman for the ultra-Orthodox Shas party told Radio Kol Barama that Shas would vote with the opposition to dissolve the Knesset as soon as this Wednesday.
Like Israel’s ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, the spokesman for Shas said the controversy over a new IDF Draft Law would be the main reason for the collapse of the government.
Against this backdrop, a flurry of reports in recent days suggests that most parties, as well as several new players, are now actively preparing for new elections.
The most prominent of the new players is an old acquaintance in Israel’s politics – former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Bennett has already registered a new party for his comeback and has been busy criticizing the government on a range of issues, attempting to establish himself as the main force in the political center.
His new party, which up to this point consists only of him, is currently projected to become the largest force in the country.
According to a Walla News poll on Sunday, Bennett would win 27 mandates, enough to lead a bloc of 65 seats, which could form a coalition even without the Arab parties.
In this scenario, the next strongest parties in the coalition would be the far-left Democrats with 10 seats, ahead of Benny Gantz’s National Unity and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu parties, each with 9 seats.
Current opposition leader Yair Lapid would see his party drop to just 8 seats.
However, the largest wildcard of the upcoming elections could become former Mossad chief, Yossi Cohen, who reportedly has been leaning toward forming a new party, according to a Channel 12 report over the weekend.
“I believe it’s not the time to replace the government, but after the war, ‘a big change is needed here,’” said Cohen, who has reportedly received several offers to join other parties in recent months.
However, according to the Walla poll, a new Cohen-led party would currently struggle to get over the election threshold.
Another leader who expects himself to be in the running for prime minister is Benny Gantz, the former IDF chief of staff and defense minister.
His National Unity party announced on Sunday that it will hold primary elections, in a move calculated to garner public support and create internal stability amid criticism from Gadi Eisenkot, himself, a former IDF chief.
Recent surveys indicated growing support for Eisenkot as party leader, rather than Gantz.
National Unity plans to “open its ranks to public participation” and said that its “party assembly will be renewed and significantly enlarged.”
In Israel, parties are often created from scratch by a charismatic leader who then fills the candidate list with friends and loyal supporters. If such a party continues to exist for several years, the leader may decide to “democratize” the party internally and face primary elections. A recent example of this occurred last year within Lapid’s Yesh Atid party.
Finally, Liberman also announced that he aims to become the next prime minister and, accordingly, has stepped up his criticism of the government.
In addition to calling Prime Minister Netanyahu the “father of the Iranian bomb,” he leaked the Israeli operation to arm militias in Gaza, alleging that they were affiliated with ISIS. This was reportedly done in an attempt to attack Netanyahu from his right flank and cast him as reckless in security matters.
Speaking with Maariv last Friday, Liberman made his case as the most experienced security leader in the country.
“I see myself as the most legitimate candidate, more than legitimate, with the most impressive experience in the current political system – the most senior, the most seasoned,” he said, pointing to his former posts as finance minister, foreign minister, defense minister, Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chair, and director-general of the Prime Minister’s Office.
The Knesset could be dissolved, and new elections declared, as early as this Wednesday.
This article has left the judiciary out of the equation. With the overbearing power of the AG and the Supreme Court, dissolving the Knesset may be their next move. As long as they remain in power, anything could happen, even the opposite of replacing Netanyahu.