technopeasant • 2 hours ago
All tied up:
Rasmussen daily tracking poll:
Trump: 42% (+1)
Clinton: 42% (0)
Johnson: 7% (0)
Stein: 1% (-1)
Other: 3% (0)
Und: 6%

Clinton is supported by 80% of Dems; Trump by 79% of GOP members. This is what PPD is showing as well.
technopeasant • 8 hours ago
LA Times daily tracking poll (Oct 19):
Trump: 44.1% (-0.8)
Clinton: 43.9% (+0.6)
DT+ 0.2 (was DT+ 1.6 yesterday)

October 19, 2016 | 4 Comments »

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  1. The one logical hope I have for a Trump victory is that many people will not report that are voting for Trump. The issue since they are not reporting is how many are they?

    If some of the DEMs do not show up (especially Bernie people) in combination with under reporting then maybe maybe Trump can win. The forecasters give him a 10 to 15% chance to win and this is the scenario it would take.

  2. I think it’s really up to the un-decided and the un-decided on whether to vote. When I forward this information to liberals, they don’t believe it, even when they read them. People who get all of their information from the New York Times and NPR, and who only seem to care about protecting Roe v. Wade and banning guns (most of the older liberals I know don’t ever mention Gay Marriage – it’s just not on their radar), who, will never watch Fox News or believe anything that comes from it or any Conservative site or even wiki-leaks. The response I got, was, “Bull.”
    People who seem to think that their ability to travel freely will be hampered by keeping Muslim migrants out and are concerned for some polite Muslim doorman or store-keeper they know or student they teach. (Like the terrorists at San Bernardino and Chabad house in Bombay (screw political correctness, not Mumbay) weren’t nice until they struck, not to mention Major Hadad at Ft. Hood (if he had died in battle, his relatives would be a “gold star” family, too — why didn’t Trump mention that the father was a notorious Sharia-Supremacist and Clinton Slush Fund collaborator) People locked in a bubble. People who can’t think. Deaf, Dumb, blind. Most of New York City (most of which never votes for Republicans who usually don’t even bother to run) is like this. It’s surreal. It’s like “The Matrix.” (which, in turn, is based on one of Rene Descartes process of elimination arguments asking how he knows he exists when he could be hooked up to a machine feeding him false sensory data, which is where “I think therefore I am, comes from.) Welcome to my world.

    [It’s actually nice now thanks to 20 years of Republican Mayors, Guiliani and Bloomberg but I couldn’t resist: “Escape From New York” 1981. trailer.


    Reagan trailed Carter 47-39 just 10 days before vote

    Reagan did not take the lead in the Gallup polls until the very last poll taken at the end of October, when just days ahead of Election Day, Nov. 4, 1980, Gallup had Reagan ahead 47-43 percent. [fake polling?]

    Reagan won by a landslide, capturing 50.7 percent of the popular vote to 41 percent for Carter

    no published survey detected the Reagan landslide before it actually happened,”

    “Most published polls just before last Tuesday’s election said the race between Reagan and Jimmy Carter was “too close to call,” but Reagan trounced the incumbent by 10 percentage points in the actual vote,”

    The review of Reagan’s performance in the last debate with Carter, held Oct. 28, 1980, gave no indication Reagan’s performance was responsible for a last-minute surge. [no last minute surge, the polls lied until the final day, like today]

    “There may have been no clear winner in Tuesday night’s presidential debate, but the focus of the discussion was pretty much where President Carter wanted it, on the issue of war and peace and not on the economy,”

    Ronald Reagan, who had said he wanted to focus in the closing days of the campaign on Carter’s ‘economic record of misery and despair,’ let pass several opportunities to say how he could do better than Carter

    “Reagan spent much of the 90-minute debate seeking to portray himself as a man of peace to offset the warmonger image that Carter has tried to tag him with. He wanted to come across as presidential, and he may well have succeeded,

    What Reagan’s landslide showed was that Carter’s failures weighed heavily on voters President Richard Nixon had termed the “silent majority”

    sound familiar?

    My own view is that most election polls up until the last week are crooked and I cant tell which ones are not….. so I avoid taking them at face value Too much money available for pollsters to pass up. By adjusting the figures to reality in the last days they can claim next year that they predicted correctly.