By Shoshana Bryen, AMERICAN THINKER
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ISIS? ISIS claimed first to have shot the plane down and later (after it became clear that it probably hadn’t actually been shot down) claimed responsibility instead for “destroying” it without specifying how. ISIS by itself is a fairly long shot; it is known to be operating in Sinai, but not in the southern part near Sharm el-Sheikh.
Posit, then, cooperation between ISIS and Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, two Sunni jihadist organizations operating both in Egypt and in Syria. While ISIS’s prime target would be Russia, the Brotherhood’s would be Egypt.
The Brotherhood was born in Egypt and is entrenched among the population. President al-Sisi has been waging a brutal war against it, believing that the Brotherhood is to Egypt as the Taliban is to Afghanistan – an indigenous jihadist organization that perhaps cannot be weeded out but must be shackled, stomped, imprisoned, and otherwise prevented from wreaking havoc on the state. President Mubarak was horrified when the Obama administration insisted that MB figures attend the president’s Cairo University speech in 2009 and later met Brotherhood figures in the White House.
Downing a plane filled with civilians could decimate Egypt’s tourist industry – one of the mainstays of the economy. Already suffering from the perception that Egypt is unsafe for tourism (although the government has claimed otherwise), Egypt may find that this disaster presents an unfixable economic reality.
Considering ISIS’s position, Vladimir Putin declared war on the organization in Syria, and a declaration of war by Russia is qualitatively different from an American “red line.” True, Putin is expending effort clearing non-ISIS rebels from territory around Aleppo to ensure that the Assad government can control it, but Russian planes have struck ISIS training camps and other installations as well.
Russia has two goals in Syria:
To protect a government in Damascus that ensures Russian control of naval base at Latakia.
To strike a blow at Sunni jihadists who threaten Russian interests.
Putin has no particular love for Shiite Iran, Assad, Alawites, or Hezb’allah – his primary allies in Syria. But he has a passionate hatred for Sunni jihadists, particularly Chechens, some of whom are fighting with ISIS and who he believes will return to Russia and restart the wars that he so brutally extinguished. The secular Assad regime is essential in his view to keeping the lid on Sunni jihad.
One of the problems with the Russian approach to Sunni jihadists is that carpet-bombing tends to make more, rather than fewer, of them.
Russia, long a target of Chechen irredentists, is now also a target of ISIS.
A Muslim Brotherhood-ISIS joint operation would serve the primary interests of both.
A boost to the fortunes of the Muslim Brotherhood inside Egypt.
A boost to ISIS, which proves it can operate outside the Syria/Iraq border area and that it can operate against a major power.
A blow to the authority of the al-Sisi government, as it fails to protect international interests in Egypt.
A financial blow to Egypt’s economy that may not be covered by support payments from the Saudis and the Gulf Arab States.
A blow to Putin’s standing at home as he fails to protect Russian civilians.
A blow to Putin’s desire to deliver a crushing blow to ISIS and other Sunni jihadists, as they, instead, deliver one to Russia.
The details of the demise of Kogalymavia Flight 9268 will become clearer as more of the wreckage is reclaimed. But the winners and losers of the fight for the narrative are clear: jihadi terrorists scored one over Russia and Egypt.
Well said, Max. Putin needs Russians by the millions; Stalin murdered Russians by the millions. Marxism made abortion a sacrament in the old Soviet, too. Stalin’s 30 million murders, WWII deaths plus an additional 70 million abortions(?) puts the demography of Mother Russia in very desperate straits.
Cosmic Karma for MH17.
…
Whatever happened , it seems Ruskies, Egyptians not forthcoming with the truth. Probably 20 years from now it will be an “unsolved mystery”.
True Putin is showing to be the strongest and most ruthless military power. Russia doesn’t back down and is winning every encounter and that regards the ones that never made it to the MSM. (Chechnya – Georgia etc) as well *. He has some competition from the Chicoms and the Islamists in that regard but he is proving to be the new Man of Steel, Stalin 2.0, 21st Century Stalin without the mass purges or Beria 2.0 so far.
* –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#Russian_Federation_.281991.E2.80.93present.29
A civilized society can succeed in eliminating threats from beasts only by exterminating the beasts. The dying West is too feminized to survive. The Russians may have the gumption. No one else does.