Netanyahu does not rule out taking over Gaza Strip to stop Hamas attacks

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May 20, 2021 | 3 Comments »

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  2. First rate analysis:

    …The government did not instruct the army to overthrow the Hamas rule in Gaza, thus changing radically the situation there. Israel’s strategy since 2006 has been to pit the PA and Hamas against each other as a means of preventing the realization of the two-state solution. Ousting Hamas would play into the hands of the PLO, which would quickly fill the void in the strip, consolidate Gaza and Ramallah into a cohesive political entity and demand—with strong backing from the EU and the US, not to speak of Russia and China—a bona fide state.

    And so the IDF’s political directive regarding boosting the deterrence in Gaza demanded exacting a high price from Hamas and reducing its capabilities, but not to the point where the terrorist organization would collapse…

    …Those are substantial achievements, they definitely weaken the terrorists substantially, but they do not increase deterrence. Because deterrence is not a military but a psychological concept. Indeed, deterrence could be achieved in the coming years, should the IDF insist on bombing those assets every time they are rehabilitated. If each rocket manufacturing facility is blown up every time it is rebuilt – that would be deterrence. If the IAF, using both warplanes and armed drones, continues the nightly sorties to level every renewed attempt to establish the infrastructure of the metro tunnels – that would be deterrence. If the IDF is awakened from the slumber of always reacting to the terrorists’ provocations and seldom taking the initiative – that would be a deterrence…”

    https://www.jewishpress.com/news/eye-on-palestine/hamas/the-illusive-mr-deif-israel-is-looking-for-a-decisive-war-ending-score-but-the-top-terrorist-is-dug-in/2021/05/19/

    On the other hand, it occurs to me that perhaps the reason they don’t do that is that it would risk blowing their intelligence network.

    It seems nothing can be done but tread water until Israel’s economic and diplomatic position in the world is stronger. Bibi is indispensible for that.

  3. Giant assumption here. He has not defined “defeat.” Indeed, my observation is that – especially given the certainty of post-liberation resistance – re-liberating Gaza and imposing IDF martial law there would be very risky unless there is a plan for doing the same thing to Southern Lebanon at the same time, as there is a very real threat of a two front war, here. Theoretically, Syria could join in, at some point, though I have not read of Syrian troops massed on the border, nor do they have the kind of arsenal of missiles that Hezbollah has. Still, the possibility of a three front war would depend on how long the conflict lasted. I think a computer would be necessary to compute all the possible variants and outcomes, here.