New Polls: Biden Leads By Double Digits, But…

T. Belman.  There is much more  in favor of Trump’s reelection than Benson alludes to.  70,000 people a month are joining the walk away movement.  The Primary Model which announced with 87% certainty, a Trump victory in 2016, now perdicts, with 90% certainty, a landslide victory in 2020. Latinos are warming to Trump especially because of his proposed DACA legislation.  Blexit is also moving the needle.  Only 9% of blacks voted for Trumo in 2o16. Candace Owens famously announced that all she had to do was move the black vote to 15 % and it would assure a Trump victory.  Latest poslls have him receiving will over 20%. Police Union Backs Trump for Re-Election in 2020.  Recent studies have concluded that riots and looting result in a move to the right by the electorate.

By Guy Benson, TOWNHALL

New Polls: Biden Leads By Double Digits, But...

Among the last five national surveys of the 2020 presidential race, former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead is nearly ten points on average.  If you exclude the two outliers among those five data sets — Rasmussen’s (+3) and Quinnipiac’s (-15), the approximate average doesn’t change.  President Trump is currently losing his re-election bid, and he knows it, as evidenced by his high-level campaign shakeup announced yesterday.  Sometimes actions speak louder than words or polls, so his struggles are not fake news.  Let’s take a look at the new NBC/WSJ poll, which gives Biden an 11-point advantage:

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a double-digit lead nationally over President Donald Trump, with 7 in 10 voters saying the country is on the wrong track and majorities disapproving of the president’s handling of the coronavirus and race relations…The poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 11 points among registered voters, 51 percent to 40 percent, which is well outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Biden’s lead in last month’s poll was 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent. In addition, the poll shows Democrats enjoying an intensity advantage heading into November, and it has Trump’s job rating declining to 42 percent — its lowest level in two years.

Not good, but there are a few bright spots for POTUS and his party: Trump’s job approval on the economy is right-side-up by 12 points (54/42), with additional economic indicators improving.  Joe Biden’s personal ratings are also down, in spite of his large top line edge, and the ‘generic ballot’ question has tightened considerably:Monmouth found a similar effect in the swing state of Pennsylvania:

Down ticket Republicans may be less inclined to hyperventilate into paper bags based on these trends, but each of the last two polls cited still have the guy at the top of the ticket trailing by 11 and 13 points, respectively. Question, though: Could Trump’s support be even more under-counted by pollsters than it was 2016?  Allahpundit mined a nugget from the aforementioned Monmouth survey in the Keystone State: “Monmouth’s poll of Pennsylvania yesterday showing Biden up big was headlined ‘Biden Leads But Many Anticipate Secret Trump Vote.’ The topline number had him ahead of Trump, 53/40, but when people were asked who they thought would actually win the state, the numbers shrank all the way down to a 46/45 advantage — for Trump. Monmouth explored that by following up with the question, ‘Do you think there are so-called secret voters in your community who support Donald Trump but wont tell anyone about it, or not really?’ Nearly 50 percent said yes, and it wasn’t just optimistic Republicans who thought so. By comparison, just 18 percent thought there were secret Biden voters out there.”

People believe there are significant numbers of voters who plan to pull the lever for the president, even if they won’t tell anyone — including pollsters.  I’m willing to buy that the so-called ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon exists, and that it may even be more acute than it was four years ago.  The culture war stuff is real, and I’d imagine that a lot of people who are disgusted by the Left’s totalitarian mob actions and cancel culture recriminations might quietly see Trump as a bulwark against such excesses, even if they’re scared to say so out loud.  But let’s be very generous and say that effect could amount to three or four points in public polling; Trump still has his work cut out for him.  New York Times stats guru Nate Cohn examines this issue in a new analysis:

If the election were held today, Mr. Biden would win the presidency, even if the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago. The reason is simple: His lead is far wider than Hillary Clinton’s was in the final polls, and large enough to withstand another 2016 polling meltdown…This is not to say that President Trump can’t win. There are still nearly four months to go until the election — more than enough time for the race and the polls to change. The race changed on several occasions over the final months in 2016. And this race has already changed significantly in the last four months. According to FiveThirtyEight, three months ago Mr. Biden held a lead of only about four points. And while Mr. Biden can currently survive a 2016-like polling error, there is no reason a polling error couldn’t be even larger in 2020. But for now, his lead is large enough to survive a 2016 repeat and just about every general-election polling error in recent memory…Mr. Biden also enjoys a far wider lead [than Hillary] in the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency.

For what it’s worth, I’ll leave you with this assessment of Trump’s newly-annointed campaign manager, relayed to me as soon as I touched down at Joint Base Andrews last night, shortly after the news broke: But is the primary issue personnel and strategy, or the principal?

July 18, 2020 | 4 Comments » | 605 views

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4 Comments / 4 Comments

  1. If Biden will show up for the TV debates Trump will win hands down.
    Biden would make a terrible president:
    He’s usually wrong, he called the China travel ban by Trump a “hysterical xenophobia and fear-mongering,” Biden said “China’s not the enemy, they’re the good guys;” while they steal our technology, overcome our economy, build their military and gave his son 1.5 billion to invest (don’t believe his tough talk, he criticized tariffs.) He is pro-Iran while they shout ‘Death to America’ and sponsor terrorism. Famously dishonest creating millions for his family in Ukraine, etc., almost as extreme-left as Bernie, in favor of 2 million more immigrants, he said he will loosen asylum definition (expect uncontrolled rmass border surges,) abolish I.C.E., tear down the border walls, no deportations, free healthcare, welfare etc. for illegals. Under Biden the US will no longer be energy independent (4 million job loss,) expect MASSIVE TAX HIKES, bailing out failing Democrat states, etc. Biden is controlled by the hard left, their goal, per BLM, is to change America to a Socialist Marxist Republic with useful idiots. Biden said guns killed 150 million, 120 million died from the coronavirus in the US, I choose truth over facts, we will put 720 million-woman back to work, super Thursday, etc. This may be the first president elected with dementia. Have no fear he supports AOC Green New Deal estimated cost in the trillions and he will put her in charge of the EPA while China builds numerous coal plants. Bottom line, dementia Biden is a trojan horse to be controlled/used by the far left to destroy are economy, sell your stocks ASAP!

  2. It will be difficult for Biden to win if he a) avoids public appearances or b) shows symptoms of dementia when he appears in public. It is difficult to see him accepting a debate with Trump, since that would quickly expose his dementia. On the other hand, if he declines to debate, that won’t look good either.

  3. The trouble with many polls are they are doing registered voters and not likely voters. Then some of the polls are using 24% of the sample size for GOP voters. In the last two elections the GOP numbered voters was 33%.

    Also there is the under-reporting of by some Trump voters who will not admit to pollsters that they are voting Trump.

    My conclusion is that the polls are NOT reliable. Rasmussen who does likely voters and samples more GOP voters than most other polls had Trump down 3% and the margin of error was 2 points. So the race is likely very very close.

  4. There are three debates planned and the DEMs have accepted. The GOP wanted more but the DEMS have refused.

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