Peloni
Axios reports possible breakthrough between US and Iran in which key US demands are seriously diminished.
The report says the White House believes it is close to a preliminary agreement with Iran in the form of a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the current war and launching more detailed nuclear negotiations. While nothing has been finalized, U.S. officials expect key Iranian responses within 48 hours and view this as the closest the sides have come to a deal since the conflict began.
The proposed framework would include Iran agreeing to a temporary halt on nuclear enrichment, enhanced inspections, and commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons, while the U.S. would gradually lift sanctions, release frozen Iranian funds, and ease restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Many provisions would depend on reaching a later comprehensive agreement, leaving open the possibility of renewed conflict if talks fail.
Negotiations are being conducted by U.S. envoys and Iranian officials, with a planned 30-day follow-on negotiation period in locations such as Islamabad or Geneva. During that time, both sides would begin rolling back military and shipping restrictions, though the U.S. could reinstate them if talks collapse.
From the report, the major sticking point remains to be only the length of a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear enrichment rather than its elimination, with proposals ranging from 5 to 20 years and a likely compromise above a decade. Additional provisions include stricter limits on nuclear facilities, potential removal of highly enriched uranium from Iran, and mechanisms to extend restrictions if violations occur indicating a serious step back from US demands of eliminating Iran’s nuclear program towards offers made by Witkoff which Trump had previously noted he had not authorized.
Despite cautious optimism, the report indicates an acknowledgement by US negotiators of divisions within Iran’s leadership and ongoing uncertainty about whether a deal will ultimately be agreed upon, noting that previous rounds of negotiations have also failed.
What is clear from this report, if accurate, is that the US has seriously retrograded its previous demands of ending Iran’s nuclear program for good. So we will see what comes from this in the coming hours.
Of note, in recent moments Trump released the following statement:
Assuming Iran agrees to what has already been agreed upon—and this may be a big assumption—the “epic rage” that has already become legendary will come to an end, and the very effective siege will allow the Strait of Hormuz to be open to everyone, including Iran. If they do not agree, the bombings will begin, and unfortunately, they will be at a level and intensity far higher than what was before.
It’s hard to say where projection ends and reality begins, so we will see…
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