T. Belman. As this article suggests, Trump will seek agreement on spheres of influence. I think he will cede Crimea to Russia and cede a Syrian rump state to Assad/Russia. In return he will get their agreement to a Sunni state in rest of Syria and in the Sunni part of Iraq. This will pacify his Sunni allies like Turkey and Saudi Arabia and help to create a bulwark against Iran. This state will need a strong ruler designated by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. I think he will also seek Russian agreement to exclude Iran from Syrian influence thereby neutering Hezbollah. Iraq is 60% Shiite. Rather than cede what’s left of Iraq to Iran he may try to sever the relation so that Iraq is independent of Iran.
We’ll see. A lot to negotiate by the negotiator in chief.
Trump’s “America first” is likely to make him cooperate with Putin on Syria.
By Rami G Khouri, AL JAZEERA
Anyone interested in how the United States president-elect Donald Trump will fill in the many blanks in his foreign policy should keep an eye on the Middle East – the most dramatic convergence point of ongoing American military engagements and Russia’s foreign policy.
Russia and its leader President Vladimir Putin is also the issue on which Trump has spoken with perhaps the most clarity and specificity, amid his otherwise vague and often changing foreign policy positions.
Syria, in particular, is where Trump’s emphatic “America-first” principles and his disdain for promoting regime change and nation-building abroad naturally line up with two of his expressed views: The US should get out of the war in Syria and avoid destabilising more Middle Eastern countries, and the US should work with Putin to defeat terrorist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS).
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