T. Belman. The only thing I disagree with is that he says Jews and Jewish money have power and influence in the US. 75% of Jews and Jewish money support the Democratic Party and the Jewish establishment both of whom are anti-ZionisT and anti-Israel. They do not influence the Trump regime. I also think that the future is predictable. Israel, with US backing, will dominate the ME
Soltan-Shahi was described by MEMRI in 2018 as secretary-general of the Organization for Aiding the Islamic Revolution of the Palestinian People in the Office of the Iranian Presidency.
BY SETH J. FRANTZMAN, JPOST
Iran’s Tasnim news ran a long and important interview on Tuesday with a Palestinian named Ali Reza Soltan-Shahi. The interview is interesting because it gives a window not only into Palestinian thinking, but particularly because of the views conveyed to the Iranian regime via the interview.
Soltan-Shahi has appeared before at Iranian events. He was described by MEMRI in 2018 as secretary-general of the Organization for Aiding the Islamic Revolution of the Palestinian People in the Office of the Iranian Presidency. Tasnim describes him only as a former head of the Palestinian Center for Mental Health.
The interview begins with a discussion of the Israeli political parties that contested the election. Soltan-Shahi says the 2019 election was the culmination of a process that begin in 1977 and has seen the entrenchment of Likud and the Israeli right. He notes that Labor and Meretz have fallen in their number of seats. He describes Israel as more fundamentalist and religious, an irony considering that the Iranian regime is a fundamentalist theocracy. He argues that the right will gain more power in the future in Israel. He argues that while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will form a new government successfully, his “popularity is at the lowest level internationally. Those countries that interact with the Zionist regime, such as the Europeans, their interaction is at its lowest.” He says Israel’s main ally is the United States and the Trump administration.
The interview notes that the privileges Israel enjoys in its relations with the US have made Israel’s policies more efficient and he points to US recognition of Jerusalem and the Golan. What does this unprecedented Israel-US coherence in policy mean going forward? He notes that due to the flexibility the US is showing in terms of more imaginative peace process concepts, tensions will increase in the West Bank and Gaza, which he refers to as the “occupied territories.” Unpredictability will increase and the “resistance may be strengthened.”
Israel is also seeking to “strengthen its relations with Arab countries, and as far as possible make these relations more explicit and clearer.” Israel is helping to cement an anti-Iranian alliance even as Iran’s role in the region increases. The interview calls this Iran’s “strong presence.” The interview does not point to direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, but rather Israel encouraging the US to be more tough on Tehran financially. “The Zionist regime will certainly use anti-Iran countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia.”
Soltan-Shahi then discusses the differences between Iran’s view and that of Europe. While European powers supports a two-state solution and Israel withdrawing to the 1967 borders, “they are by no means like us, who demand the complete destruction of the Zionist regime.” Iran and Europe can only cooperate insofar as Iran seeks to highlight Israel’s abuses of international law and violation of international norms, the interviewee says. He indicates such examples as using UNESCO against Israel.What about the rumors of an “Arab NATO” which would oppose Iran? Soltan-Shahi says that experience shows the Arab NATO has not worked well. Egypt, for instance, did not agree to be part of it. “It those that the Arab countries that have the most secret relations with the Zionist regime cannot actually bring Zionists against the Islamic Republic of Iran.” In short, many Arab countries in the region are unwilling to make their relations with Israel public because they know such relations are unpopular at home and will cause protests against their rulers.
The interview ends with discussions of whether Trump will be re-elected. “The Jews in the US are financially, politically, economically and media-wise very influential, but it should be borne in mind that eve as the Jews are powerful in the US, the political system is rooted in four-year terms for the Presidency.” Soltan-Shahi says that if Trump is re-elected it would mean the US has changed a lot in the last four years.
The interview is interesting because this is the kind of information that Iranian media seeks to highlight and also what some Iranians read in Farsi. The knowledge of the goals of Israel and the current Israeli government, including the complexity of coalition politics, are laid bare. In general the interview seems to suggest that while Israel has cemented its power and relations with Arab states, as well as gaining from Washington’s policies, it is unable to take things to the next step. This is because, in the view of the interview, the Arab states will not ever actually form a real alliance with Israel. It is an alliance of convenience. With that knowledge a sophisticated regime like Iran’s can continue to insert itself into politics in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and beyond. The interview also points to unpredictable Palestinian responses to any kind of US “deal of the century.” Defeated militarily, the Palestinian “resistance” has less options. But, isolated, it may be unpredictable. This is an important point because the US is pushing a deal that is reportedly in line with Israel’s interests and it is unclear how the Palestinian Authority and Hamas in Gaza will react.
The astute Iranian regime reads the prevailing winds in the region carefully. It correctly understands that while the European powers may be critical of Israel in some international forums, that only Iran really seeks the destruction of Israel. Iran seems to understand that this cannot be achieved by direct confrontation either. Interviews like this point to what information the Iranian regime is receiving and propagating.
Iran has operated its foreign policy by proxies – analogous to imperial powers’ indirect rule by local chiefs. This is relatively cheap in its own human resources but the weakness is that some of the clients occasionally dig in their heels or show more independence than is comfortable. Hamas and Hizbollah lit the fuses out of cockiness eg 2006 Lebanon War triggered by the kidnap of the Israeli border patrol; or the Hamas provocations by rocket of the 3 Gaza campaigns: Cast Lead, Pillar of Defence and Protective Edge.
They think that as in Gaza and Lebanon they can inflict too expensive a casualty bill for little or obscure political return on any Israeli ground attack to clear the rocketeers and raiding “infantry.” However if Hamas, Hizbollah and the PA trigger another rocket war it might lead Israel to see it as another 1948 and clear the remaining Moslem Arabs (and offer return to the Christian Arabs in Jordan and Gaza).
Similarly to Arab Antisemitism sending the Arab World Jews to Israel after 1948 so beefing up the return to Zion now the Arab sponsored Antisemitism revival in the West might spur the million Jews in Europe and the six millions in the Americas N & S to move to resettle Judea, Samaria, and the Arava and Negev besides the Golan. The only technical problem is the water supply and that can be dealt with short term by gas fired desalination and long term by solar panels and Zaslavsky Towers.
@ JoeBillScott:
The implications of his remarks are that the Jews exercise this disproportionate influence in support of Israel. You and I both know this is not the case.
In reality, Ted, the Jews do have disproportionate influence in the US and globally. It’s just not necessarily in Israel’s favor. This will change during the coming 2nd American Civil War, during which Israel could possibly have new problems with a significant influx of initially anti-Israel Americans.