Military says manpower shortage of 12,000 soldiers will increase in 2027
| Published: May 18, 2026
Screengrab via Youtube
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly attempting to pass the IDF draft law exempting Haredi yeshivah students in a last-ditch effort to postpone the impending dissolution of the Knesset, Israeli media reports.
Meanwhile, military officials have again raised a red flag about the lack of combat soldiers, warning that the proposed law would not address the IDF’s needs in the short term.
The ultra-Orthodox parties in the coalition, frustrated over the inability to pass the Haredi draft exemption bill, called for the Knesset to be dissolved this week, triggering early elections.
On Sunday, the draft exemption bill was placed back on the Knesset agenda, with discussion scheduled in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Wednesday ahead of an attempt to advance it toward a final vote.
Channel 12 News reported that Netanyahu plans to exert heavy pressure on MKs from his own party, including threatening them with consequences in the upcoming Likud primary elections.
Ultra-Orthodox sources told Israeli media that Prime Minister Netanyahu offered to resume discussions on the bill in an attempt to postpone elections until October. The Haredi parties are reported to prefer an election before the High Holidays in the fall (Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, and the Feast of Tabernacles).
Rabbi Dov Lando, the spiritual leader of the Degel HaTorah party, reportedly told Haredi lawmakers “not to get drawn into political games and to support the dissolution of the Knesset this coming Wednesday.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu previously told ultra-Orthodox party leaders that the coalition does not have enough support to pass the controversial bill, especially as the IDF continues to report a lack of adequate manpower amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and a possible resumption of military operations against Iran.
Netanyahu was reported to have asked the Haredi parties to wait until after the 2026 elections to pass the law. The Haredi exemption bill is highly controversial in Israeli society, with many coalition members expressing criticism.
A senior member of Degel Hatorah explained why the Haredi parties are rejecting Netanyahu’s offer to the ultra-Orthodox new site Kikar Hashabbat.
“What do you do when you want to buy time?” the source asked. “They are now informing the Haredim that there is a breakthrough to achieve a majority, and they do not have a majority. They are telling [Knesset Defense Committee chairman] Boaz Bismuth to hold discussions in the committee, and according to the attorney general, at least two or three more discussions are needed before the law is read.”
The senior party member said Netanyahu is currently freezing the vote on the Knesset Dissolution Law in order to gain another week or two before elections.
Ultra-Orthodox Shas party Chairman Aryeh Deri said his party “demonstrated loyal partnership with the coalition, but elements between the coalition leaders and Knesset members from the Likud and Religious Zionism did not act in a similar way and blatantly violated the promises and agreement they signed.”
“We have no choice but to bring about the dissolution of the Knesset and new elections as soon as possible,” Deri said.
The ultra-Orthodox parties are sharply opposed to any effort to increase enlistment among the Haredi yeshivah population, often hosting large, and at times, violent protests against Haredi enlistment attempts.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized Netanyahu’s attempt to revive the draft exemption bill in a post to ?.
“Netanyahu knows he is facing defeat in the election and will do everything to gain a few more days in the Prime Minister’s Office,” Lapid said. “His attempt to sell out Israel’s security and try to pass a draft-dodging law is another betrayal of IDF soldiers and reservists.”
Meanwhile, the IDF briefed Israeli media outlets about the projected manpower shortage of around 12,000 soldiers. This is expected to increase after the government’s decision to shorten the mandatory service term comes into effect in early 2027.
The military says it urgently needs at least 12,000 new recruits, with at least 7,000 being combat troops, to cover the gap. In the meantime, IDF reservists have had their duty extended multiple times over the past two and a half years due to a manpower shortage.
“If we do not do something now through legislation, the situation will worsen and disrupt the entire system,” a senior officer told Israeli media.
The military estimates that there are around 38,000 draft evaders in Israel, with about 75–80% of them being ultra-Orthodox. Another 52,000 individuals are set to be designated as draft evaders in the coming months.
AG on FB:
below I meant without the Haredi for government formation.
Knesset may soon dissolve then we may see what occurs in new party formation and party mergers plus joint lists for the elections.
So, the dynamics may change. Also if Bibi takes a plea deal and leaves politics that would be a major change and allow parties like Lieberman’s and Bennett’s. Eisenkots, to create a coalition with the Likud and the Religious Zionists to form a government with the Haredi. Bennett and some of the others are unlikely to work with Ben Gvir however.
I will take a government of Likud, Together, Eisenkot, Lieberman and Religious Zionist sans the Haredi.
That would a Zionist government with all serving in the military and not needing to speed excess money on the Haredi to be bribed by Bibi so they can draft dodge.
@Rafi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadi_Eisenkot
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avigdor_Lieberman
Have they changed these positions?
“AI Overview:
+10 Recent Israeli polling (mid-May 2026) indicates the following projections for Gadi Eisenkot, Avigdor Liberman, and Bezalel Smotrich, ahead of the scheduled October 2026 legislative elections:Gadi Eisenkot: Projected to receive roughly 9 to 15 seats if his Yashar party runs independently. He has also polled very strongly in the race for prime ministerial suitability and opposition leadership.Avigdor Liberman: Projected to win about 6 to 9 seats with his Yisrael Beytenu party. Liberman’s party remains a consistent, mid-sized bloc in the alternative, anti-Netanyahu coalition.Bezalel Smotrich: Polling very weakly with his Religious Zionist Party, with most surveys showing his party hovering right at or falling below the 3.25% electoral threshold, translating to 0 to 5 seats.Coalition vs. Opposition Math:Broadly, polls show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition bloc falling short of an overall Knesset majority. If opposition leaders (such as Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Eisenkot, and Liberman) coordinate, their merged factions and alliances have frequently polled with a combined 60 seats, which is just one seat shy of a governing 61-seat majority without Arab parties.For up-to-date tracker data and daily seat breakdowns, consult resources like The Jerusalem Post or The Times of Israel.”
Not sure what polls these publications are using. I notice you left out Ben Gvir and the projection includes Bennet, who is thoroughly discedited on the right. His word means nothing. Anyway, they would need the Arab parties.
Only Smotrich is genuinely on the right. Would he agree?
“Smotrich: Dismantle PA, apply sovereignty in Judea and Samaria
Finance Minister Smotrich urges the Prime Minister to demand Gaza’s full demilitarization from President Trump, calls the Palestinian Authority a mistake that must be dismantled.” Dec 23, 2025 at 2:14 AM (GMT+2)
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/419761
“Smotrich In Sa-Nur: Conquer Gaza and settle it
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich laid out his vision for Israel’s ongoing multi-front campaign during a speech reopening the town of Sa-Nur in northern Samaria.
Hezki Baruch
Hezki Baruch
2 minutes
Apr 19, 2026 at 4:28 PM (GMT+”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/425724
The coalition is only emperiled becauseof Haredi opposition. The left will be more hostile.
No one actually currently believes in a two-state solution.
This is a huge problem for Israeli society. Bibi is now hanging with the draft dodgers.
The country would be better off if prior to the next election, Bibi makes a plea bargain deal and steps aside from politics for a full pardon.
Likud gets a new leader (perhaps Barkat). The Likud could then make deals with many parties to get a coalition without the Haredi. That way a true Zionist government could be formed with only parties from those who willingly serve in the IDF.
@ Rafi
Would such a ‘true Zionist’ govt include Lapid? I know you dislike labels, but including the likes of Lapid in any govt is highly problematic.
Lapid is not my favorite either but at least his supporters go to the IDF.
@Rafi
My comment: “Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.”
@Peloni
@Rafi
On the other hand, Have you ever noticed that Bibi’s challengers always seem to be the same individuals? I find it ironic that American elections, which are more oriented towards voting for individuals within a two party system, keeps producing new ones, but in Israeli elections, which, being parliamentary and multi-party oriented with proportional representation, always seems to put forward the same cast of characters?
@Sebastien
This is because the Israeli parties, unlike the American parties are based around a single, central character who picks or appoints the members of his party list. For example, Yesh Atid is Lapid’s party, not because he is the leader of the party, but because he controls who is in the party. When you vote for Yesh Atid, you are voting for Lapid, not because he won the leadership vote for Yesh Atid, but because Yesh Atid has no leadership elections. Lapid is the leader and his fellow members of Yesh Atid are picked by him, making party loyalty something quite legendary.
Notably, Likud is one of the few parties which holds party leadership votes, when they hold them, requiring Bibi to first win the party’s support before running for Knessett. Bibi is a proven electoral magnet, having brought his party to victory for many years, so they in return have stuck with him as their leader. Most of his opponents however have parties formed around a central figure, such as Lapid, which is why they keep showing up in every election, time and again.
@Peloni
Yes, that’s the irony, Except for Likud, the intended collectivism just produces all-powerful individuals, each in his own little pond.
I’m reminded of the ’60s pop song that goes, “It’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to…”
@ Sebastian, you are correct in general, but a few things are no longer completely accurate.
1. Yesh Atid – Started having party elections in 2023. Now Yesh Atid is folding into the new party “Together under Bennett’s leadership.
2. Likud is now allowing Bibi to pick more the Knessett list and he want this to expand even greater for the next election. Thereby creating a situation similar to what you described with the other parties. Also over the years he is forced out many of the leaders of some of the other parties who were a threat to him in the leadership races in the Likud. He is a true Machiavellian.
@Rafi
@Peloni
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/427398
Yes, I saw this. Importantly, this is one of the polls which reports Left of Reality, making these findings all the more relevant and revealing as to what the real numbers might be. We are still a long way from the election, and many parties will be formed in the coming weeks, so this may all radically change, but it substantiates the reality that the Left wing parties are going to have to move further to the Right to be competitive, and the same may also be true among the Right wing parties. This will be a particularly exciting election season.