It’s not just policy and perceived interests — it’s personal.
Aaron David Miller is no ‘Zionist ideologue’ (a phrase that he himself has used pejoratively). He is not a fan of Jewish settlements east of the Green Line, and he has said that
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Palestinians deserve an independent state living in peace and security alongside Israel. They’ve suffered enough; their cause is just and compelling.
He recently wrote this about the Levy Commission report, which concluded that Jews have a right to live in Judea and Samaria:
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Israeli settlement activity continues unabated. In fact, in a truly bizarre and tortuous bit of twisted logic, a recent report by a committee created by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu actually recommended sanctioning the Israeli activity.
My regular readers know that I applauded the Levy report as a breath of fresh air which could finally bring the government of Israel out of the ghetto it voluntarily created when it ceded its legitimate rights and adopted its enemies’ language of ‘occupation’.
And while I think that Palestinian Arabs have certainly suffered, I also think that the “Palestinian Cause” is no more or less than a racist war against Jewish self-determination — and that the agent of Palestinian suffering has not been Israel, but rather the truly awful Arab leadership.
So Miller and I are not at all on the same page. On the other hand, he has worked for six American Secretaries of State as an adviser on Israeli-Arab negotiations, and has written four books and countless articles on the Mideast. The least we can do is listen to what he says.
And what he says about the prospect of a second Obama Administration is foreboding indeed. After criticizing Netanyahu for not “trusting [his] own instincts” and therefore being untrustworthy himself (yes, I know, “tortuous” and “bizarre” logic), he turns to Obama:
If Bibi seems weak, Obama has left no doubt that he has strong views when it comes to the U.S.-Israeli relationship. And he hasn’t changed his views of Israel or Netanyahu, even if his first failed run at the peace process and the impending presidential election have caused him to back off.
I’ve watched a few presidents come and go on this issue, and Obama really is different. Unlike Clinton and George W. Bush, Obama isn’t in love with the idea of Israel. As a result, he has a harder time making allowances for Israeli behavior he doesn’t like. Obama relates to the Jewish state not on a values continuum but through a national security and interest filter. [I wish! — ed.]
It’s true that the president doesn’t emote on many policy issues, with the possible exception of health care. But on Israel, he just doesn’t buy the “tiny state living on the knife’s edge with the dark past” argument — or at least it doesn’t come through in emotionally resonant terms.
As the Washington Post’s Scott Wilson reported, Obama doesn’t believe the “no daylight” argument — that is, to get Israel to move, you need to make the Israelis feel that America will stand by it no matter what. Quite the opposite: Obama appears to believe that Israel needs to understand that if it doesn’t move, the United States will be hard pressed to continue to give it complete support. [i.e., it will throw Israel to the wolves — ed.]
In this respect, when it comes to Israel, Obama is more like Jimmy Carter minus the biblical interest or attachment, or like Bush 41 minus a strategy. My sense is that, if he could get away with it, the president would like to see a U.S.-Israeli relationship that is not just less exclusive, but somewhat less special as well.
Right-wing Israeli leaders have found ways to cooperate quite closely with American presidents in the past. But this time around, it’s not so easy.
There are just no good answers to the region’s problems. The peace process is stuck, and Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon seems impervious to sanctions or diplomacy. The Arab world is going through changes that will introduce even more uncertainty into Israeli calculations and make risk-taking on the peace process less likely. And as the president might say, let’s be clear: Netanyahu is not going to offer the Palestinians a deal on Jerusalem, borders, or refugees that they will accept. Indeed, on the issue of a peace settlement, Obama’s views are much closer to the Palestinians than to Israel.[my emphasis]
Whatever one thinks of Miller’s ideological stance, he is a professional who has been around for a long time and who knows all the players. At the beginning of his article, Miller quotes Sen. John McCain’s remark that “Everybody knows that relations with Israel have never been worse,” and after describing some of the bad moments under Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Bush I, admits that McCain is “on to something.”
And the problem is not only one of policy and perceived interests, it is personal, with Obama’s dislike of Netanyahu a matter of public record.
It seems to me that not only are relations between Israel and the US worse than ever, they have the potential to get much worse if Obama is reelected and is no longer constrained by electoral politics.
And it is the worst possible time for this to be the case.
MARTIN Said:
” So Miller and I are not at all on the same page. On the other hand, he has worked for six American Secretaries of State as an adviser on Israeli-Arab negotiations, and has written four books and countless articles on the Mideast. The least we can do is listen to what he says.”
But one must also keep in mind Mr. Miller kvels when he relates he is proud to have been , along with Mr. Ross, one of Mr. Baker’s “Jew Boys”. What Mr. Miller says must be filtered.
Some day Israel is going to attack an Arab country, Syria or Iran are good guesses. Then Russia with some of her Arab clients will attack Israel in mass. I do not know exactly what will happen but I know that the G-d of Israel will destroy those armies that attack Israel.
It is high time to get rid of Ovomit, Blowhard Biden, Shrillary and the rest of that obnoxious, incompetent, anti-Semitic crew and put in REAL Americans who can lead us.
If Catmarin and the other lefties crawling on board here don’t like it, they can go get stuffed with their bigoted buddies (witness what they’re (Ovomit’s friends) trying to do to Chick-Fil-A while insisting Gay-hate Mosques be built in American neighborhoods).
Arnold Harris Said:
One thing Russia and china have shown in the syria story is that they haven’t abandoned a sinking ship. US disloyalty and abandonment is now the main way alliance with the US is perceived. Going back to viet nam there is a history of cut and run and to hell with your allies. (Israel did the same in south lebanon under Barak and is perceived similarly)
BO,
So long as the golden rule is that the man who has the gold makes the rule, everybody will be a lapdog of someone else. You are correct. It really is a tough world. And earning my living these past 30 years as a small-time businessman, I wouldn’t have it any other way.
But the pleasant things about the growing Israeli friendship with Russia and China are:
1) Neither of them spend much time or effort lecturing Israel endlessly about peace and building democracy in the Arab world.
2) The Russians spend much of their time and effort spying on everybody, in order to learn their industrial secrets. Which is a relatively cheap way of getting something useful to take home.
3) The Chinese spend much of their time and effort building a worldwide trading network. Which is an appropriate way to become the leading superpower.
4) They both have permanent seats on the UNO Security Council. Which means they can veto anything the UNO decides to do but which conflict with their own policies. Nor do either of them ever bother to rationalize with their respective publics how they vote. Because neither of them really give a damn what their own citizens and taxpayers think. Which is refreshingly honest as governments go.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
@ Arnold Harris:
Actually, I believe the world, in general, perceives the US establishment as lapdogs of the Jews. I don’t expect this perception to go away within the coming century, no matter what either party does.
Concerning Israel’s “diversifying” to developing better relations with Russia and China, I wish them the best. Too bad that the Russians and Chiese are also lapdogs of the Americans. It’s a tough world.
@ Arnold Harris:
Shana Tova in Chinese: Sin nyen how
Toda Zie zie nin
I’m learning! I have a vocabulary of 500 words. Our kids and theirs will need more
Actually, I am not at all unhappy about Obama and his increasingly-obvious unfriendliness to Israel. Here’s why I make such a statement:
1) I have been waiting a long time for the Jewish nation in general and the State of Israel in particular to diversity their dependency on foreign powers. The time has come for Israel to develop much better relations with Russia and China. You really can’t have it both ways. The extant to which the world perceives the Jews and Israel as lapdogs of a US establishment that either ignores them or is significantly hostile to them, the more the world despises the Jews and Israel. China is the now the fastest-rising world power. Russia, while lacking the super-economy of China, is a significant land empire, which, when under a strong central government such as that of the tsars such as Peter the Great, or Stalin the red tsar, or Putin the Orthodox Christian republican tsar, can and will organize enough muscle to enforce its national will all around its borderlands of the largest country of the world. Compared to these, the USA today obviously is a fading power with bankrupt governments, a shrunken economy, and unsolvable problems maintaining a system of tax-paid “entitlements” that has produced a national debt that probably will never be paid down.
2) Israel’s greatest future need is for national power, based expansion on four fronts:
— an expanding economy;
— an expanding Jewish population;
— an expanding national land area on which to settle that population;
— an expending base of natural resources, and especially energy-related resources;
Only allies such as China and Russia, neither of whom have or ever will have governments answerable to international propaganda-based public opinion, will either acquiesce in such a long-term power play of a country not unfriendly to them, or may even actively help them achieve these goals. Americans in general take “democracy” too seriously, and — even worse — most of our governments in this country begin believing their own line of shit regarding such ideals.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
With or without Obama, the USA and the West will be less and less involved in bigger commercial deals with Israel, the exception being the development and commercialization of the natural gas and oil deposits near Israel and when Israel retakes the Sinai.
Perhaps Obama was a blessing in disguise, being the driver for bolder relations with the East and the BRICS. Perhaps Canada and the US will not play a large role in the development of the gas and oil deposits.
The voting patterns of Western Jews shows that we cannot be that trusted and relied on when it comes to Israel. At least the majority.
This is the reason – Obama’s Jew-hatred – that within the last couple of months, Putin visited Israel and signed a gas deal, and the Chinese signed a deal to build a railway from Ashdod to Eilat.
The Israelis know that Obama is an enemy, and will act accordingly. They will go elsewhere and Obama will weaken foreign policy that much more.